08:10 PM [903] PIT PIRATES -1.5 +135 (KUHL/PERALTA)
09:40 PM [906] ARI DBACKS -1.5 +120 (WISLER/ R RAY)
10:10 PM [908] TOTAL u8-115 (SFO GIANTS vrs LA DODGERS) (MOORE/STRIPLING)
07:05 PM [914] TOR BLUE JAYS -1.5 -145 ( J WEAVER -R / J HAPP -L )
08:05 PM [916] TEX RANGERS -164 ( J TOMLIN -R / C HAMELS)
07:10 PM [922] TOTAL u7.5 -110 (KC ROYALS vrs MIA MARLINS) (VOLQUEZ/KOEHLER)
1 unit bet pays 49 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-141, -27.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24...yesterday!
over Atlanta has hit 9-1 last 10. So has Arizona last 10 (and "Over is 38-14-1 in ARI last 53 overall.")
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Nationals -1? +100
Washington is worth a look on the run line Thursday against the Orioles. The Nationals have now dropped 3 straight against Baltimore and I look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder Thursday to take the final game of the series. They certainly are in a great spot to do so, as they send out their ace Max Scherzer against the struggling Ubaldo Jimenez. Scherzer has a 3.05 ERA in 26 starts and has been at his best at home, where he has a 2.60 ERA and 0.865 WHIP in 10 starts. Jimenez owns an ugly 6.72 ERA in 18 starts overall and has a 7.91 ERA in 8 road starts and 10.13 ERA in his last 3 outings. I look for the Nationals to put up a big number here offensively and easily win this one by 2 or more runs.
J.A. Happ has covered the -1.5 run line in 12 of his last 12 starts (6-6 in the 12 before that).
Coldest pitcher: Jered Weaver, Angels (8-11, 5.47 ERA)
Happ's counterpart, the veteran Weaver, has been awful this season. He has an 8-11 record, 5.47 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 138 1/3 innings, as he has been extremely hittable all season. Lately it has gotten a lot worse, as Weaver is 0-3 with an 8.40 ERA and 2.13 WHIP while striking out just five over the past 15 innings. The Angels have won just one of Weaver's past six starts against a team with a winning overall record, and the Angels are 7-19 in their past 26 road games overall. Weaver hasn't been the stopper for the team, either, as the Angels are 1-7 in Weaver's past eight outings following a team loss in their previous game.
TEX are 37-17 in their last 54 home games.
Since the All-Star break, Cole Hamels has been one of the game's best pitchers, putting up a 1.85 ERA and 9.2 K/9 over seven starts. His home matchup against Cleveland isn't ideal, though. The Indians handle left-handed pitching well and have been one of the game's best-hitting teams in the second half (113 wRC+).
Speaking of dominance, J.A. Happ has been carving up opposing lineups for the past two months. The southpaw owns a 1.78 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 over his past eight starts. That includes nine or more K's in four of those eight outings. Unfortunately, Happ is in a similar spot to Hamels, as his home matchup against the Angels isn't necessarily one you want to target. After all, the Angels strike out less than any team in baseball (16 percent) and do not go easy on left-handed pitching (106 wRC+).
....I was not sure this one was going to stay in range, but some Cleveland money in the morning marketplace has returned the value point, and in a game in which I expect a vast difference between the way the two starting pitchers handle a pressure setting, #916 Texas (8:05 Eastern) works, with as low as -145 available in the current trading (value extends to -155).
The Rangers didn?t just bring in Cole Hamels to be good, they also brought in a guy they thought would be good under pressure, and they correctly believed their roster was on the way to playing pressure games. They have gotten their money?s worth ? Texas has gone 28-9 across his 37 starts since he joined the team, with a 20-5/3.11 personal line. And it is not just a quality issue in terms of pressure, but delivering what a team needs ? with the starting rotation thinned by injuries eating some innings also became a priority, and since the All Star break Hamels has given them 7.0 per start. With no fatigue issues in the bullpen (Diekman/Bush/Dyson got through the last three innings in 32 pitches yesterday), the latter stages are in good hands as well.
Josh Tomlin is at a much different end of the pitching spectrum right now. His rather unique arc of Baseball Being Baseball was a feature piece here back in June, and if you don?t have first-rate stuff the sport does not allow you to remain at the higher altitudes too long. Tomlin is a competitor with excellent control, but doesn?t have the stuff to breathe the air that elite pitchers do. As such things have come crashing down around him to where he is now a below average pitcher on all metrics, FIP and SIERA agreeing at an alarming 5.11, and his confidence may be at a particularly low ebb for this setting ? after entering August at 11-3/3.43 it has been a dismal 0-4/10.02 comeuppance. The team behind him is mirroring that form, the Indians coming back to earth after over-achieving across a strong cycle, but the top end of the pitching staff has presented it from being worse ? they were drubbed 14-3 in Oakland over the last three days, but managed to go 1-2 because of a beauty from Carlos Carrasco on Monday.
Paxton is expected to be activated from the 15-day disabled list, where he has been since Aug. 7 due to an elbow injury. The 27-year-old Canadian made a rehab start for Triple-A Tacoma on Saturday, allowing two hits and a walk while striking out three in three scoreless innings. Paxton made his only career start against Chicago on Aug. 9, 2014, when he settled for a no-decision after giving up one run and six hits over 6 1/3 frames.
Ranaudo will be making his third start since being acquired from Texas and first since escaping with a no-decision at Cleveland on Aug. 17 after surrendering five runs and eight hits in four innings. The 26-year-old native of New Jersey has yielded eight runs and 10 hits - four homers - over 10 2/3 frames in his two outings with Chicago.
In his last four starts before being sent to Gwinnett, Wisler was 1-3 with a 10.18 ERA and .326 opponents? average, allowing 28 hits, nine homers and seven walks with 15 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings.
The Braves have been encouraged by his work at Gwinnett, where he was 2-1 with a 3.71 ERA and .257 opponents? average in four starts, totaling 22 strikeouts with five walks and three homers allowed in 26 2/3 innings. On Friday against Charlotte, he pitched seven innings and allowed eight hits and five runs (three earned) with four strikeouts and no walks.
One thing that could we could see is Wisler realized he?s not guaranteed a starting spot in the Braves rotation. It?s possible he regained some confidence in Triple-A and is ready to go again in Atlanta. In 2015, his Triple-A stats weren?t great either and then impressed in Atlanta.
Adam Wainwright still leads the Cards starting staff in FIP....
N.Y. Mets +154 over ST. LOUIS
Seth Lugo is quite the story and it?s about a guy that would not give up and that was a big longshot to make it to this level. His story inspires and it also prompts his teammates to dig down a little deeper in support of him. Lugo was drafted in the 34th round (1032nd overall) by the Mets in 2011. He served as the ace for Centenary in 2011, the Shreveport program?s final year in Division I before dropping to D-III status, but he sure didn't pitch like one by going 3-7 with a 5.57 ERA. Regardless, he impressed the Mets at a pre-draft workout and the club made him a 34th-round pick in 2011. Lugo missed the entire 2012 season after being diagnosed with the disorder spondylolisthesis, which necessitated a 10-hour surgical procedure to repair a displaced vertebra in his spine. Doctors warned him that he might not pitch again but Lugo returned in the second half of 2013 then worked out of the bullpen in 2014. He returned to the rotation at Double-A Binghamton in 2015 and led the system with 127 strikeouts, thanks to the best breaking ball on the farm: a plus, mid-70s curveball with tight spin and late break. Lugo tops out at 95 mph and ranges from 88-95 mph. He also throws a slider and changeup that show average potential, and he's always around the plate with all four of his pitches.
Lugo has made just one start this year and it was a decent one in San Fran six days ago. Overall, Lugo has a BB/K split of 7/19 in 24 frames. Over his last 16 innings, his BB/K split was 3/14 with an elite swing and miss rate of 15%. His sub-indicators are good too with 62% first-pitch strikes and 73% when he started. Beware of the athlete with a bulldog mentality. Heart and determination can turn an average pitcher into a very good one. Lugo just keeps getting better and he just keeps coming. He?s not the type of pitcher we like to fade.
Then there?s Adam Wainwright, another pitcher with a bulldog mentality but there is a difference in that Lugo is fresh while Wainwright is not. After missing nearly all of last season with an Achilles injury, Wainwright got off to an awful start in 2016, putting up a 6.80 ERA over his first eight starts. He?s made 17 more starts since then to take his number of starts this season to 25. That?s 151 innings thus far and Wainwright appears to be running on fumes. He?s walked 11 batters over his past 26 frames while striking out 20. That?s a weak ratio. His velocity is down to an average of 89.9 MPH and his swinging strike rate has dropped from 10% to 8% over his last five starts. Wainwright has one quality start over his last five tries. Over that span, he posted a 7.71 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP. He?s now favored like he?s strong and pitching well when he is in fact, weak and pitching poorly.pitching poorly.
Pittsburgh -1? +138 over MILWAUKEE
The Pirates just completed a six-game home stand, where they went 1-5. Prior to that, Pittsburgh played two, three-game sets in San Fran and Los Angeles respectively and went 5-1. We?ll look for the Pirates road success to continue here against Wily Peralta. Peralta brings his poor 6.00 ERA into this home start. He also brings a .341 oppBA and a 6.36 xERA. Peralta has a horrible BB/K split of 33/54 in 84 innings. He throws a flat 94 MPH fastball 70% of the time because he does not trust his other pitches. His other main pitch is a slider that he throws 21% of the time. When he?s missing with the slider, which is often, he is then forced to use his fastball and batters are sitting dead red. Peralta's 75% disaster start rate is the lowest in the majors among pitchers with 15 or more starts. Dude is batting practice out there.
Chad Kuhl has made just seven starts but five of those have been of the pure quality variety. He comes in with a 3.62 ERA and a BB/K split of 9/22 in 37 innings. Those numbers are simply average but Kuhl is a student of the game and his underlying numbers like his chances to improve. Kuhl would have an above-average fastball just based on velocity (he sits in the low 90s), but what makes it a plus pitch is that there?s a tremendous amount of sink to it. He?s got the stuff to be a groundball machine, and the power of his fastball/sinker allows it to miss bats. Kuhl also throws a slider and a change, and while those pitches lag behind the sinking fastball by a considerable margin, they?re both usable. The slider is another groundball pitch with late tilt, but doesn?t have depth and isn?t going to be a swing-and-miss offering at the big-league level. The change offers a bit of tumble, but it lacks firmness and there?s a slight difference in arm speed when he throws it.
If you?re looking to back a starter who is going to miss a ton of bats and wow you with electric stuff, Kuhl isn?t and never will be that pitcher. What he can do is give hitters uncomfortable at bats, and keep the ball below the knees while keeping the self-inflicted damage to a minimum. Assuming he throws strikes and has that sinking fastball working, he?ll be effective. If he has to rely more on his secondary pitches, he might have a bad time but these Brewers figure to help him out tremendously because they have never seen a pitch they didn?t like. Milwaukee has struck out more times (1191) than any team in baseball. We promise you that both Ray Searage, the Pirates outstanding pitching coach, and Chad Kuhl are fully aware.
Matchup to watch: Brewers vs. Pirates
The Brewers are a strange team figure. They traded away one of their best hitters with Jonathan Lucroy being dealt to Texas, and they were 5-14 in August through the 20th. However, they won their interleague series finale in Seattle Aug. 21 by a 7-6 score, and they swept the previously hot Colorado Rockies to carry a four-game win streak into their home series againt the Bucs. The good times could continue in Cream City, as the Pirates have dropped five of their past six games while going 1-5 in their past six outings against right-handed starting pitchers. The Brewers have also won four of the past five meetings in this series, and they have dominated the Bucs at Miller Park going 62-16 in the past 78 meetings in Wisconsin.
Dallas / Seattle Under 44
I like a few things about this game that put me right on the under...First off we get the starters for a decent amount of time...How many points will the Seahawks give up at home to the first unit?....My guess is not many and we all remember who one of the only teams over the last few years to win in Seattle was...Yep, Cowboys....Seattle on the other hand hasn't been anything special on offense..They avg just 14ppg this preseason and the starters haven't contributed much to that grand total of 28 points....Cowboys lit the scoreboard up last week and a regression should come from them in a big way...Dak Prescott has had enough throws IMO...Why stick this kid back in the pocket against Seattle 1st or 2nd string..He proved his worth and running the ball will be key here for Dallas....Neither team wants to risk injury at this point..Go out get the reps, work on blocking and some basic timing routes...I doubt these teams are looking for rock solid performance here...Seattle is great off a loss in the preseason, but I'm not sold Carroll looks to run up the score with his depth guys...This might be the most boring game we see Dallas in all preseason...I'm on the under..44 seems way off here...38 is the line I made...Under it is.
B.C. Lions +115 over OTTAWA
Before Henry Burris can derail their season any further, the Redblacks will turn back to Trevor Harris who started the season guns a blazing before going down with an injury. This story is actually receiving national attention, as Ottawa will sit a healthy Burris, who was last season?s Most Outstanding Player. There's an overreaction to the Burris benching to be sure and despite how great Harris was in the first part of the year (and he was), there may be bigger issues facing this club. You see, Ottawa is the only team to lose to Saskatchewan this season. As a -9 and -10 point favorite over Toronto and Montreal respectively, Ottawa lost both those games outright. The Redblacks have lost three of four with only win over that span being an undeserving one against Edmonton, 23-20. Trevor Harris is not likely to fix that in one start. When he came in to relieve Henry Burris in the first game of the season, his timing, preparation and conditioning was on par with every player in the league. He?ll now play for the first time in a month and it?s not like he?s facing a weak opponent. Ottawa has played five straight games in succession against the CFL?s weakest group and they have performed horribly. One key player back after a month layoff may help but Ottawa?s overall level of play is one that cannot be endorsed right now.
What we like about the Lions here is that they?re coming off an absolutely embarrassing performance in its biggest game of the year last week. The Lions were torched by Calgary in B.C. by a score of 37-9 and they were out-gained by 181 yards. A response is in order and the Lions have the talent to do just that. Indeed, the timing for a disgusting effort was bad for the Lions last week but it happens. The Carolina Panthers in last year?s Super Bowl came up with their worst performance of the season when it mattered most. Again, it happens but one cannot reasonably expect another performance like that one six days later.
Prior to last week, the Lions had racked up massive yardage in four straight while scoring 40, 41, 38 and 45 points respectively. That includes a 44-41 victory over Calgary and a 45-38 victory over the Tigercats. The Lions wickedly proficient offense is capable of picking apart any defense in this league. Look, Ottawa appears to be in very good hands with Harris, as the Redblacks had only lost once in his five starts. However, layoffs aren?t easy to come back from and Ottawa?s losing mindset right now isn?t easy to overcome either. We love what Harris has brought to Ottawa but B.C. is in better shape coming into this matchup with nothing but quality performances all season long minus last week. Lions outright.
09:40 PM [906] ARI DBACKS -1.5 +120 (WISLER/ R RAY)
10:10 PM [908] TOTAL u8-115 (SFO GIANTS vrs LA DODGERS) (MOORE/STRIPLING)
07:05 PM [914] TOR BLUE JAYS -1.5 -145 ( J WEAVER -R / J HAPP -L )
08:05 PM [916] TEX RANGERS -164 ( J TOMLIN -R / C HAMELS)
07:10 PM [922] TOTAL u7.5 -110 (KC ROYALS vrs MIA MARLINS) (VOLQUEZ/KOEHLER)
1 unit bet pays 49 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 14-141, -27.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24...yesterday!
over Atlanta has hit 9-1 last 10. So has Arizona last 10 (and "Over is 38-14-1 in ARI last 53 overall.")
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Nationals -1? +100
Washington is worth a look on the run line Thursday against the Orioles. The Nationals have now dropped 3 straight against Baltimore and I look for them to come out with a chip on their shoulder Thursday to take the final game of the series. They certainly are in a great spot to do so, as they send out their ace Max Scherzer against the struggling Ubaldo Jimenez. Scherzer has a 3.05 ERA in 26 starts and has been at his best at home, where he has a 2.60 ERA and 0.865 WHIP in 10 starts. Jimenez owns an ugly 6.72 ERA in 18 starts overall and has a 7.91 ERA in 8 road starts and 10.13 ERA in his last 3 outings. I look for the Nationals to put up a big number here offensively and easily win this one by 2 or more runs.
J.A. Happ has covered the -1.5 run line in 12 of his last 12 starts (6-6 in the 12 before that).
Coldest pitcher: Jered Weaver, Angels (8-11, 5.47 ERA)
Happ's counterpart, the veteran Weaver, has been awful this season. He has an 8-11 record, 5.47 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 138 1/3 innings, as he has been extremely hittable all season. Lately it has gotten a lot worse, as Weaver is 0-3 with an 8.40 ERA and 2.13 WHIP while striking out just five over the past 15 innings. The Angels have won just one of Weaver's past six starts against a team with a winning overall record, and the Angels are 7-19 in their past 26 road games overall. Weaver hasn't been the stopper for the team, either, as the Angels are 1-7 in Weaver's past eight outings following a team loss in their previous game.
TEX are 37-17 in their last 54 home games.
Since the All-Star break, Cole Hamels has been one of the game's best pitchers, putting up a 1.85 ERA and 9.2 K/9 over seven starts. His home matchup against Cleveland isn't ideal, though. The Indians handle left-handed pitching well and have been one of the game's best-hitting teams in the second half (113 wRC+).
Speaking of dominance, J.A. Happ has been carving up opposing lineups for the past two months. The southpaw owns a 1.78 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 over his past eight starts. That includes nine or more K's in four of those eight outings. Unfortunately, Happ is in a similar spot to Hamels, as his home matchup against the Angels isn't necessarily one you want to target. After all, the Angels strike out less than any team in baseball (16 percent) and do not go easy on left-handed pitching (106 wRC+).
....I was not sure this one was going to stay in range, but some Cleveland money in the morning marketplace has returned the value point, and in a game in which I expect a vast difference between the way the two starting pitchers handle a pressure setting, #916 Texas (8:05 Eastern) works, with as low as -145 available in the current trading (value extends to -155).
The Rangers didn?t just bring in Cole Hamels to be good, they also brought in a guy they thought would be good under pressure, and they correctly believed their roster was on the way to playing pressure games. They have gotten their money?s worth ? Texas has gone 28-9 across his 37 starts since he joined the team, with a 20-5/3.11 personal line. And it is not just a quality issue in terms of pressure, but delivering what a team needs ? with the starting rotation thinned by injuries eating some innings also became a priority, and since the All Star break Hamels has given them 7.0 per start. With no fatigue issues in the bullpen (Diekman/Bush/Dyson got through the last three innings in 32 pitches yesterday), the latter stages are in good hands as well.
Josh Tomlin is at a much different end of the pitching spectrum right now. His rather unique arc of Baseball Being Baseball was a feature piece here back in June, and if you don?t have first-rate stuff the sport does not allow you to remain at the higher altitudes too long. Tomlin is a competitor with excellent control, but doesn?t have the stuff to breathe the air that elite pitchers do. As such things have come crashing down around him to where he is now a below average pitcher on all metrics, FIP and SIERA agreeing at an alarming 5.11, and his confidence may be at a particularly low ebb for this setting ? after entering August at 11-3/3.43 it has been a dismal 0-4/10.02 comeuppance. The team behind him is mirroring that form, the Indians coming back to earth after over-achieving across a strong cycle, but the top end of the pitching staff has presented it from being worse ? they were drubbed 14-3 in Oakland over the last three days, but managed to go 1-2 because of a beauty from Carlos Carrasco on Monday.
Paxton is expected to be activated from the 15-day disabled list, where he has been since Aug. 7 due to an elbow injury. The 27-year-old Canadian made a rehab start for Triple-A Tacoma on Saturday, allowing two hits and a walk while striking out three in three scoreless innings. Paxton made his only career start against Chicago on Aug. 9, 2014, when he settled for a no-decision after giving up one run and six hits over 6 1/3 frames.
Ranaudo will be making his third start since being acquired from Texas and first since escaping with a no-decision at Cleveland on Aug. 17 after surrendering five runs and eight hits in four innings. The 26-year-old native of New Jersey has yielded eight runs and 10 hits - four homers - over 10 2/3 frames in his two outings with Chicago.
In his last four starts before being sent to Gwinnett, Wisler was 1-3 with a 10.18 ERA and .326 opponents? average, allowing 28 hits, nine homers and seven walks with 15 strikeouts in 20 1/3 innings.
The Braves have been encouraged by his work at Gwinnett, where he was 2-1 with a 3.71 ERA and .257 opponents? average in four starts, totaling 22 strikeouts with five walks and three homers allowed in 26 2/3 innings. On Friday against Charlotte, he pitched seven innings and allowed eight hits and five runs (three earned) with four strikeouts and no walks.
One thing that could we could see is Wisler realized he?s not guaranteed a starting spot in the Braves rotation. It?s possible he regained some confidence in Triple-A and is ready to go again in Atlanta. In 2015, his Triple-A stats weren?t great either and then impressed in Atlanta.
Adam Wainwright still leads the Cards starting staff in FIP....
N.Y. Mets +154 over ST. LOUIS
Seth Lugo is quite the story and it?s about a guy that would not give up and that was a big longshot to make it to this level. His story inspires and it also prompts his teammates to dig down a little deeper in support of him. Lugo was drafted in the 34th round (1032nd overall) by the Mets in 2011. He served as the ace for Centenary in 2011, the Shreveport program?s final year in Division I before dropping to D-III status, but he sure didn't pitch like one by going 3-7 with a 5.57 ERA. Regardless, he impressed the Mets at a pre-draft workout and the club made him a 34th-round pick in 2011. Lugo missed the entire 2012 season after being diagnosed with the disorder spondylolisthesis, which necessitated a 10-hour surgical procedure to repair a displaced vertebra in his spine. Doctors warned him that he might not pitch again but Lugo returned in the second half of 2013 then worked out of the bullpen in 2014. He returned to the rotation at Double-A Binghamton in 2015 and led the system with 127 strikeouts, thanks to the best breaking ball on the farm: a plus, mid-70s curveball with tight spin and late break. Lugo tops out at 95 mph and ranges from 88-95 mph. He also throws a slider and changeup that show average potential, and he's always around the plate with all four of his pitches.
Lugo has made just one start this year and it was a decent one in San Fran six days ago. Overall, Lugo has a BB/K split of 7/19 in 24 frames. Over his last 16 innings, his BB/K split was 3/14 with an elite swing and miss rate of 15%. His sub-indicators are good too with 62% first-pitch strikes and 73% when he started. Beware of the athlete with a bulldog mentality. Heart and determination can turn an average pitcher into a very good one. Lugo just keeps getting better and he just keeps coming. He?s not the type of pitcher we like to fade.
Then there?s Adam Wainwright, another pitcher with a bulldog mentality but there is a difference in that Lugo is fresh while Wainwright is not. After missing nearly all of last season with an Achilles injury, Wainwright got off to an awful start in 2016, putting up a 6.80 ERA over his first eight starts. He?s made 17 more starts since then to take his number of starts this season to 25. That?s 151 innings thus far and Wainwright appears to be running on fumes. He?s walked 11 batters over his past 26 frames while striking out 20. That?s a weak ratio. His velocity is down to an average of 89.9 MPH and his swinging strike rate has dropped from 10% to 8% over his last five starts. Wainwright has one quality start over his last five tries. Over that span, he posted a 7.71 ERA and a 1.83 WHIP. He?s now favored like he?s strong and pitching well when he is in fact, weak and pitching poorly.pitching poorly.
Pittsburgh -1? +138 over MILWAUKEE
The Pirates just completed a six-game home stand, where they went 1-5. Prior to that, Pittsburgh played two, three-game sets in San Fran and Los Angeles respectively and went 5-1. We?ll look for the Pirates road success to continue here against Wily Peralta. Peralta brings his poor 6.00 ERA into this home start. He also brings a .341 oppBA and a 6.36 xERA. Peralta has a horrible BB/K split of 33/54 in 84 innings. He throws a flat 94 MPH fastball 70% of the time because he does not trust his other pitches. His other main pitch is a slider that he throws 21% of the time. When he?s missing with the slider, which is often, he is then forced to use his fastball and batters are sitting dead red. Peralta's 75% disaster start rate is the lowest in the majors among pitchers with 15 or more starts. Dude is batting practice out there.
Chad Kuhl has made just seven starts but five of those have been of the pure quality variety. He comes in with a 3.62 ERA and a BB/K split of 9/22 in 37 innings. Those numbers are simply average but Kuhl is a student of the game and his underlying numbers like his chances to improve. Kuhl would have an above-average fastball just based on velocity (he sits in the low 90s), but what makes it a plus pitch is that there?s a tremendous amount of sink to it. He?s got the stuff to be a groundball machine, and the power of his fastball/sinker allows it to miss bats. Kuhl also throws a slider and a change, and while those pitches lag behind the sinking fastball by a considerable margin, they?re both usable. The slider is another groundball pitch with late tilt, but doesn?t have depth and isn?t going to be a swing-and-miss offering at the big-league level. The change offers a bit of tumble, but it lacks firmness and there?s a slight difference in arm speed when he throws it.
If you?re looking to back a starter who is going to miss a ton of bats and wow you with electric stuff, Kuhl isn?t and never will be that pitcher. What he can do is give hitters uncomfortable at bats, and keep the ball below the knees while keeping the self-inflicted damage to a minimum. Assuming he throws strikes and has that sinking fastball working, he?ll be effective. If he has to rely more on his secondary pitches, he might have a bad time but these Brewers figure to help him out tremendously because they have never seen a pitch they didn?t like. Milwaukee has struck out more times (1191) than any team in baseball. We promise you that both Ray Searage, the Pirates outstanding pitching coach, and Chad Kuhl are fully aware.
Matchup to watch: Brewers vs. Pirates
The Brewers are a strange team figure. They traded away one of their best hitters with Jonathan Lucroy being dealt to Texas, and they were 5-14 in August through the 20th. However, they won their interleague series finale in Seattle Aug. 21 by a 7-6 score, and they swept the previously hot Colorado Rockies to carry a four-game win streak into their home series againt the Bucs. The good times could continue in Cream City, as the Pirates have dropped five of their past six games while going 1-5 in their past six outings against right-handed starting pitchers. The Brewers have also won four of the past five meetings in this series, and they have dominated the Bucs at Miller Park going 62-16 in the past 78 meetings in Wisconsin.
Dallas / Seattle Under 44
I like a few things about this game that put me right on the under...First off we get the starters for a decent amount of time...How many points will the Seahawks give up at home to the first unit?....My guess is not many and we all remember who one of the only teams over the last few years to win in Seattle was...Yep, Cowboys....Seattle on the other hand hasn't been anything special on offense..They avg just 14ppg this preseason and the starters haven't contributed much to that grand total of 28 points....Cowboys lit the scoreboard up last week and a regression should come from them in a big way...Dak Prescott has had enough throws IMO...Why stick this kid back in the pocket against Seattle 1st or 2nd string..He proved his worth and running the ball will be key here for Dallas....Neither team wants to risk injury at this point..Go out get the reps, work on blocking and some basic timing routes...I doubt these teams are looking for rock solid performance here...Seattle is great off a loss in the preseason, but I'm not sold Carroll looks to run up the score with his depth guys...This might be the most boring game we see Dallas in all preseason...I'm on the under..44 seems way off here...38 is the line I made...Under it is.
B.C. Lions +115 over OTTAWA
Before Henry Burris can derail their season any further, the Redblacks will turn back to Trevor Harris who started the season guns a blazing before going down with an injury. This story is actually receiving national attention, as Ottawa will sit a healthy Burris, who was last season?s Most Outstanding Player. There's an overreaction to the Burris benching to be sure and despite how great Harris was in the first part of the year (and he was), there may be bigger issues facing this club. You see, Ottawa is the only team to lose to Saskatchewan this season. As a -9 and -10 point favorite over Toronto and Montreal respectively, Ottawa lost both those games outright. The Redblacks have lost three of four with only win over that span being an undeserving one against Edmonton, 23-20. Trevor Harris is not likely to fix that in one start. When he came in to relieve Henry Burris in the first game of the season, his timing, preparation and conditioning was on par with every player in the league. He?ll now play for the first time in a month and it?s not like he?s facing a weak opponent. Ottawa has played five straight games in succession against the CFL?s weakest group and they have performed horribly. One key player back after a month layoff may help but Ottawa?s overall level of play is one that cannot be endorsed right now.
What we like about the Lions here is that they?re coming off an absolutely embarrassing performance in its biggest game of the year last week. The Lions were torched by Calgary in B.C. by a score of 37-9 and they were out-gained by 181 yards. A response is in order and the Lions have the talent to do just that. Indeed, the timing for a disgusting effort was bad for the Lions last week but it happens. The Carolina Panthers in last year?s Super Bowl came up with their worst performance of the season when it mattered most. Again, it happens but one cannot reasonably expect another performance like that one six days later.
Prior to last week, the Lions had racked up massive yardage in four straight while scoring 40, 41, 38 and 45 points respectively. That includes a 44-41 victory over Calgary and a 45-38 victory over the Tigercats. The Lions wickedly proficient offense is capable of picking apart any defense in this league. Look, Ottawa appears to be in very good hands with Harris, as the Redblacks had only lost once in his five starts. However, layoffs aren?t easy to come back from and Ottawa?s losing mindset right now isn?t easy to overcome either. We love what Harris has brought to Ottawa but B.C. is in better shape coming into this matchup with nothing but quality performances all season long minus last week. Lions outright.
