07:05 PM MLB [953] TOTAL o8-110 (Chicago Cubs vrs Pittsburgh Pirates) (Zastryzny/Nova)
09:10 PM MLB [959] Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -110 ( J Urias - L / C Friedrich - L )
07:05 PM MLB [966] New York Yankees -171 ( H Owens - L / C Sabathia - L )
07:05 PM MLB [968] TOTAL u9-120 (Baltimore Orioles vrs Toronto Blue Jays) (Jimenez/Stroman)
10:10 PM MLB [974] Seattle Mariners -145 ( K Graveman - R / A Miranda - L )
1 unit bet pays 16.89 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-166, -38.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Under is 10-1-1 in BAL last 12 games.....Under is 9-2-1 in TOR last 12 overall....Under is 51-21-1 in BAL last 73 overall...[Stroman on a 4 under streak now, due to good pitching and poor run support...Ubaldo has been pitching well of late too - quality starts in 5 of his last six outings - so he's overdue for a blow up!]
Over is 20-7-1 in ATL last 28 home games...Philadelphia over is 8-0-2 last 10,
CIN are 13-3 in Strailys last 16 starts.
Philadelphia Phillies +122
I like the price we are getting here with the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves, who are simply overvalued right now due to surprisingly winning 9 of their last 10 games overall coming in. Jeremy Hellickson is quietly having a superb season for the Phillies. he's 12-10 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in 31 starts, and 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Hellickson has gone 1-0 with a 4.07 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against Atlanta, all of which have come this season. He'll be opposed by Josh Collmenter, who is 1-2 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Philadelphia. Hellickson is a very profitable 14-12 (+8.6 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.
Hellickson makes his final start of the season, and it could be his last with the Phillies, who acquired him in the offseason from Arizona. Hellickson is set to be a free agent and it's likely he signs a multi-year contract with another club.
Rob Zastryzny will make his eighth appearance and first Major League start for the Cubs in this contest. Zastryzny has looked great pitching in a relief role, conceding just two runs in 10.2 innings pitched to go along with 13 strikeouts. The rookie left hander will likely get three to four innings as this is more of a bullpen start for the Cubs. He did not put up great numbers in the Minors, posting a 4.31 ERA in 135.1 innings pitched.
Zastryzny has worked exclusively out of the bullpen since being called up and has been very effective, recording 13 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings. The 24-year-old has been a starter for most of his minor-league career and went 10-5 with a 4.31 ERA in 24 games (23 starts) between Double-A and Triple-A this season. Zastryzny earned his first big-league win with an inning of relief against the Pirates on Aug. 29.
Here's something that shouldn't really surprise you guys if you've been following my Danny Duffy thoughts this year. In Duffy's recent four poor starts, he's had an average FB velocity under 95mph, including last night's clunker of 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. You can see his 2016 velocity map of the year here, including his time as a reliever before May 21st. I, including a good amount of the fantasy world, believed in Duffy because he was maintaining that elite velocity he was featuring as a reliever. But as the season has gone on, his velocity has consistently dipped, which is why I've been suggesting that I'm going to be pretty low on Duffy for my 2017 rankings. It's hard to believe that he'll keep his heater above 95mph through next season and he clearly takes a hit in effectiveness when he's not at that mark.
http://imgur.com/VMrxV3u
Gibson, a Missouri alumnus, is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA in four career starts at Kansas City. Don't be surprised if catcher Drew Butera starts for the Royals. He is 4-for-5 with a home run off Gibson, while Salvador Perez is 3-for-25, .120. Alex Gordon is 9-for-25, .360, and Alcides Escobar is 10-for-29, .345, versus Gibson.
Rays vs. White Sox
Play: Under 7.5
The books have set the bar too high for this one. Tampa Bay's Chris Archer has really been throwing the ball well for the last two months, but doesn't get a lot of love because he's 8-19 with a 4.02 ERA overall. Chicago's Jose Quintanta has been as consistent as they come but gets overlooked cause he's on a bad team. Both of these starters are in a position to excel and each has performed well against the opposition in recent meetings. Archer has a 3.08 ERA in 4 career starts against the White Sox and Quintana has a 3.33 ERA in 5 career starts against the Rays. UNDER is 15-4 in Chicago's last 19 home games after allowing 1 or less runs in their last game and 10-4 in Archer's last 14 starts when the Rays are coming off a game where they scored 2 or less.
Oakland vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
The A?s and Mariners begin a four-game series tonight, as the 2016 regular season comes to a close. The 67-91 A's (67-91) need two wins to top last year?s 68-94 record but the 84-74 Mariners will be on their home turf for a late September series that actually matters, which is to say the least, something new. Seattle trails Baltimore by two games in the AL wild-card race and still owns a shot at ending its 16-year playoff drought. The Mariners may need a four-game sweep to have a realistic chance of staying in contention but will surely need to win three of the four.
Seattle has not been to the postseason since winning 116 games in 2001, as the Mariners own the longest current playoff drought of any team in MLB (note: Seattle remains the lone AL franchise to have never made a World series appearance). ?King Felix? Hernandez, who is scheduled to start Sunday's regular-season finale, has never pitched in a postseason game. Hernandez (11-7, 3.71) and fellow veteran Hisashi Iwakuma (16-12, 3.96) are scheduled to pitch the two weekend games but the Mariners will rely on a pair of youngsters to keep them in the race until then. Rookie Ariel Miranda (5-2, 4.10 ERA) is scheduled to start Thursday's series opener, while 24-year-old Taijuan Walker (7-11, 4.35) is on tap to start Friday. Opposing Miranda (27-years old) will be Oakland?s Kendall Graveman (10-11, 4.19 ERA).
Graveman is 1-3 with a 5.65 ERA in five career starts against the Mariners (team is 1-4), including going 0-3 with a no-decision in 2016 (A?s are 0-4). Those kind of results are not hard to understand, when pitching for a team which has scored an AL-low 638 runs heading into the Seattle series (that?s 4.04 RPG). Miranda gave up three runs on three hits (including two HRs) in four innings at Minnesota in his last start, ending his four-start winning streak. In this, Miranda?s rookie season, he?s 4-0 with a 3.41 ERA in six games (five starts / team is 3-2) at home. I?ll take Seattle (Mariners are 10-5 vs the A?s in 2016) to stay alive with a win.
Colorado @ SAN FRAN
Colorado +164 over SAN FRAN
Jonathan Gray has logged a nifty 14% swing and miss rate over the last month. Over that stretch, he?s posted 12 K?s/9 and 3.07 xERA. Pit those figures against the .610 OPS registered by San Francisco over the last month and Gray is a solid value play in this night game at AT&T.
Johnny Cueto returns from a groin strain that necessitated a skipped start in the last spin of the Giants? rotation. His four starts before the time off were excellent but he did labor down the stretch last season and the Giants pen can easily blow a lead in the unlikely event that the Giants have a lead. Ok, perhaps that?s a not so unlikely but the point is that the Rocks offer up way too much value here to pass up, as San Fran is scuffling horribly and winning rarely.
Miami @ CINCINNATI
Miami +8 -104 over CINCINNATI
The Dolphins do not get a lot of press nor are they watched frequently but there were a plethora of Survivor participants watching the final quarter and OT in Miami?s near miss at home last week against the inept Brownies. Survivor players held their breath, as Browns? kicker Cody Parkey missed a 38-yard FG on the final play of regulation to send the game to OT. Parkey missed three FG?s overall so the 10-point favored Dolphins were triple lucky to escape with a victory. We can understand the market?s sentiment in wanting nothing to do with the Dolphins this week after that lucky win last week but all that does is provide us with a great opportunity.
Miami is a weak favorite but a solid pooch. There is no question that Ryan Tannehill is a hot & cold quarterback but Cincinnati?s QB Andy Dalton has an identical Passer Rating this season and has only tossed half as many touchdowns. As Dalton's mentor, Hue Jackson, has left him. Who is now there to pick up the pieces?
The Bengals are 1-2 but could easily be 0-3 after a 23-22 victory over the Jets in Week 1. Perhaps the Bengals are still really good, as they have played the Jets, Steelers and Broncos thus far but if they are, we have not seen it yet. Cinci?s defense has not been good. If it were good, both the Jets and Broncos offense would not have been able to move the ball as easily as they did. The Bengals corners were ripped up by the Denver wideouts last week.
Andy Dalton had just 206 yards and no scores when the Broncos showed up last week. Dalton is still without tight end Tyler Eifert and that hurts. His wide receivers have been of marginal help outside of A.J. Green and his one monster game. This market is largely ignoring the Bengals struggles thus far in favour of putting too much emphasis on the Dolphins nearly losing to Cleveland. Let us point out that the Dolphins were coming off road games against Seattle and New England before facing the Earthtones and they were in a position to win both. Perhaps the Bengals wake up here and play their first real complete game of the year but with plenty of questions about the defense, passing game and replaced coaches, we can't take this team seriously as a contender to repeat as division winners. Through three games, the Bengals are 0-3 against the spread and haven't looked anything like a team with which we'd want to lay heavy weight with on a short week
I don't know about you guys, but I don't feel comfortable laying four touchdowns with a team that's ranked 124th in the country in total defense. Only four teams are allowing more yards than Texas Tech. Also, last years contest was decided by just 10 points when Kansas was a 33-point underdog at home. I know the Jayhawks are brutal and haven't won a road game in years. However, this play is more of a fade from Texas Tech and it's trash defense than anything.
UConn at Houston
Play: UConn
Even with the massive spread, books know they are going to get a lot of action on this game. The betting public has a hard time not playing these weekday games. Oddsmakers have inflated this line, knowing the public money will be all on the Cougars. They really have no choice here but to set a high number with the opponent being Connecticut. The Huskies aren?t a popular team and aren?t perceived to be any good. The public would much rather lay the points with a team like Houston than stomach backing the dog. Especially, when that team hasn?t covered a game all season. While it?s been a rough go for Connecticut against the number, this team could easily be 3-1. The Huskies had a 24-21 lead late in the 4th quarter at Navy, but ended up losing 24-28. They also played well in their loss against Syracuse. They had a 23-19 edge in first downs and controlled the clock for 38 minutes and 30 seconds. The difference in the game being a 22-yard interception for a touchdown late in the 3rd quarter.
I know Houston isn?t going to overlook the Huskies after what happened last year. However, four touchdowns is a big number to be laying in a conference game. At the same time, Connecticut is going to be up for this game. They have a chance to show to play in the national spotlight against a highly ranked team. People also discredit their win over Houston last year, due to Greg Ward Jr. not playing. Connecticut is holding teams to just 22.5 ppg and only 381 ypg. While not great, defense is one of the strengths of this team. Houston did struggle offensively a couple weeks ago against Cincinnati. The Cougars actually trailed 12-16 in the 4th quarter. Turnovers by the Bearcats late led to a very misleading 40-16 win. UConn isn't a team that's going to lay down, even if they are down big late. With a potential showdown against undefeated Navy on deck, I think the Cougars call off the dogs late in this one.
The run defense for Houston has been outstanding of late. They have held each of their last 3 opponents to 33 yards or less. However, they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. It's also important to note that UConn has the ability to throw the ball. The Huskies come in completing 67.5% of their pass attempts against teams who on average are only allowing opposing QB's to complete 58.8%. We also find a solid system in play favoring a fade of the Cougars. Home favorites that are allowing 225 or less total yards in their last 3 games are 9-31 (22%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA?
Let?s go to a spot where I believe the revenge motivation matters, and also one in which the value is proper to take advantage of it, backing #214 Boise State (10:15 Eastern) on Saturday night. This one is sitting at -20 across the board this morning, and would be good up through -21.
Bryan Harsin could easily steer his Broncos in the direction of Redemption rather than Revenge, with the 52-26 loss to Utah State in Logan last October among the strangest games I have ever recorded. The victorious Aggies only had 15 first downs and 334 yards, managing just 4.9 per play, but in an amazing sequence a Boise State offense that only turned the ball over 12 times in the other 11 regular-season games coughed it up eight times in a span of nine possessions. That included five fumbles, for a team that only lost four fumbles in the other 11 games.
Not only does that put a bulls-eye on this game, but the Broncos are well-set to not only hit the target, but to smash it. There will be about as much energy focused in as we will find in a game in which a team is favored by three touchdowns ? Boise had a bye two weeks ago, and backed off early after leading 31-7 at halftime vs. Oregon State on Saturday. Not only does that energy help, but from a line value standpoint consider how misleading the scoreboards were at both UL-Lafayette, where a 35-3 halftime lead only turned into 45-10, and at Oregon State, where the final only went to 38-24. Each of those games could have easily scored in double figures beyond the final margin.
Meanwhile Utah State has been a discussion point both in these threads and on the NCAA Podcasts ? much credit has to be given for the great run the program had, including that peak season of 11-2 in 2012, but that is not sustainable in Logan. The current edition was not able to compete in the only road trip, a 45-7 loss at USC, and until Devonte Mays gets back to 100 percent the running game will not be there to establish any balance in the offense. That leaves the defense on the field far too long, and with the Broncos being able to attack in so many ways, whether it be Brett Rypien spreading the ball vertically (8.3 yards per pass), or Jeremy McNichols working behind an excellent OL (he ran for 208 at Oregon State), the Aggie defenders become vulnerable as the game goes on. With the focus that Harsin and his team are bringing, I also don?t expect them to back off the throttle; this is a prime example of one of those ?Control Element? settings.
09:10 PM MLB [959] Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 -110 ( J Urias - L / C Friedrich - L )
07:05 PM MLB [966] New York Yankees -171 ( H Owens - L / C Sabathia - L )
07:05 PM MLB [968] TOTAL u9-120 (Baltimore Orioles vrs Toronto Blue Jays) (Jimenez/Stroman)
10:10 PM MLB [974] Seattle Mariners -145 ( K Graveman - R / A Miranda - L )
1 unit bet pays 16.89 ....betdsi line
MLB parlays: 16-166, -38.49 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9....after long dry spell, hit four teamer on July 4th.....and another long dry spell, hit five teamer on July 23rd....yet another long dry spell, hit four teamer on Aug 17...hit nice daytime five teamer on Aug 18....won small daytime three teamer on Aug 24.....won daytime and evening parlays on Sept 7...
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
Under is 10-1-1 in BAL last 12 games.....Under is 9-2-1 in TOR last 12 overall....Under is 51-21-1 in BAL last 73 overall...[Stroman on a 4 under streak now, due to good pitching and poor run support...Ubaldo has been pitching well of late too - quality starts in 5 of his last six outings - so he's overdue for a blow up!]
Over is 20-7-1 in ATL last 28 home games...Philadelphia over is 8-0-2 last 10,
CIN are 13-3 in Strailys last 16 starts.
Philadelphia Phillies +122
I like the price we are getting here with the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves, who are simply overvalued right now due to surprisingly winning 9 of their last 10 games overall coming in. Jeremy Hellickson is quietly having a superb season for the Phillies. he's 12-10 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in 31 starts, and 2-1 with a 2.75 ERA and 0.966 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Hellickson has gone 1-0 with a 4.07 ERA in 3 lifetime starts against Atlanta, all of which have come this season. He'll be opposed by Josh Collmenter, who is 1-2 with a 5.93 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Philadelphia. Hellickson is a very profitable 14-12 (+8.6 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.
Hellickson makes his final start of the season, and it could be his last with the Phillies, who acquired him in the offseason from Arizona. Hellickson is set to be a free agent and it's likely he signs a multi-year contract with another club.
Rob Zastryzny will make his eighth appearance and first Major League start for the Cubs in this contest. Zastryzny has looked great pitching in a relief role, conceding just two runs in 10.2 innings pitched to go along with 13 strikeouts. The rookie left hander will likely get three to four innings as this is more of a bullpen start for the Cubs. He did not put up great numbers in the Minors, posting a 4.31 ERA in 135.1 innings pitched.
Zastryzny has worked exclusively out of the bullpen since being called up and has been very effective, recording 13 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings. The 24-year-old has been a starter for most of his minor-league career and went 10-5 with a 4.31 ERA in 24 games (23 starts) between Double-A and Triple-A this season. Zastryzny earned his first big-league win with an inning of relief against the Pirates on Aug. 29.
Here's something that shouldn't really surprise you guys if you've been following my Danny Duffy thoughts this year. In Duffy's recent four poor starts, he's had an average FB velocity under 95mph, including last night's clunker of 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 7 Hits, 4 BBs, 4 Ks. You can see his 2016 velocity map of the year here, including his time as a reliever before May 21st. I, including a good amount of the fantasy world, believed in Duffy because he was maintaining that elite velocity he was featuring as a reliever. But as the season has gone on, his velocity has consistently dipped, which is why I've been suggesting that I'm going to be pretty low on Duffy for my 2017 rankings. It's hard to believe that he'll keep his heater above 95mph through next season and he clearly takes a hit in effectiveness when he's not at that mark.
http://imgur.com/VMrxV3u
Gibson, a Missouri alumnus, is 2-2 with a 2.25 ERA in four career starts at Kansas City. Don't be surprised if catcher Drew Butera starts for the Royals. He is 4-for-5 with a home run off Gibson, while Salvador Perez is 3-for-25, .120. Alex Gordon is 9-for-25, .360, and Alcides Escobar is 10-for-29, .345, versus Gibson.
Rays vs. White Sox
Play: Under 7.5
The books have set the bar too high for this one. Tampa Bay's Chris Archer has really been throwing the ball well for the last two months, but doesn't get a lot of love because he's 8-19 with a 4.02 ERA overall. Chicago's Jose Quintanta has been as consistent as they come but gets overlooked cause he's on a bad team. Both of these starters are in a position to excel and each has performed well against the opposition in recent meetings. Archer has a 3.08 ERA in 4 career starts against the White Sox and Quintana has a 3.33 ERA in 5 career starts against the Rays. UNDER is 15-4 in Chicago's last 19 home games after allowing 1 or less runs in their last game and 10-4 in Archer's last 14 starts when the Rays are coming off a game where they scored 2 or less.
Oakland vs. Seattle
Pick: Seattle
The A?s and Mariners begin a four-game series tonight, as the 2016 regular season comes to a close. The 67-91 A's (67-91) need two wins to top last year?s 68-94 record but the 84-74 Mariners will be on their home turf for a late September series that actually matters, which is to say the least, something new. Seattle trails Baltimore by two games in the AL wild-card race and still owns a shot at ending its 16-year playoff drought. The Mariners may need a four-game sweep to have a realistic chance of staying in contention but will surely need to win three of the four.
Seattle has not been to the postseason since winning 116 games in 2001, as the Mariners own the longest current playoff drought of any team in MLB (note: Seattle remains the lone AL franchise to have never made a World series appearance). ?King Felix? Hernandez, who is scheduled to start Sunday's regular-season finale, has never pitched in a postseason game. Hernandez (11-7, 3.71) and fellow veteran Hisashi Iwakuma (16-12, 3.96) are scheduled to pitch the two weekend games but the Mariners will rely on a pair of youngsters to keep them in the race until then. Rookie Ariel Miranda (5-2, 4.10 ERA) is scheduled to start Thursday's series opener, while 24-year-old Taijuan Walker (7-11, 4.35) is on tap to start Friday. Opposing Miranda (27-years old) will be Oakland?s Kendall Graveman (10-11, 4.19 ERA).
Graveman is 1-3 with a 5.65 ERA in five career starts against the Mariners (team is 1-4), including going 0-3 with a no-decision in 2016 (A?s are 0-4). Those kind of results are not hard to understand, when pitching for a team which has scored an AL-low 638 runs heading into the Seattle series (that?s 4.04 RPG). Miranda gave up three runs on three hits (including two HRs) in four innings at Minnesota in his last start, ending his four-start winning streak. In this, Miranda?s rookie season, he?s 4-0 with a 3.41 ERA in six games (five starts / team is 3-2) at home. I?ll take Seattle (Mariners are 10-5 vs the A?s in 2016) to stay alive with a win.
Colorado @ SAN FRAN
Colorado +164 over SAN FRAN
Jonathan Gray has logged a nifty 14% swing and miss rate over the last month. Over that stretch, he?s posted 12 K?s/9 and 3.07 xERA. Pit those figures against the .610 OPS registered by San Francisco over the last month and Gray is a solid value play in this night game at AT&T.
Johnny Cueto returns from a groin strain that necessitated a skipped start in the last spin of the Giants? rotation. His four starts before the time off were excellent but he did labor down the stretch last season and the Giants pen can easily blow a lead in the unlikely event that the Giants have a lead. Ok, perhaps that?s a not so unlikely but the point is that the Rocks offer up way too much value here to pass up, as San Fran is scuffling horribly and winning rarely.
Miami @ CINCINNATI
Miami +8 -104 over CINCINNATI
The Dolphins do not get a lot of press nor are they watched frequently but there were a plethora of Survivor participants watching the final quarter and OT in Miami?s near miss at home last week against the inept Brownies. Survivor players held their breath, as Browns? kicker Cody Parkey missed a 38-yard FG on the final play of regulation to send the game to OT. Parkey missed three FG?s overall so the 10-point favored Dolphins were triple lucky to escape with a victory. We can understand the market?s sentiment in wanting nothing to do with the Dolphins this week after that lucky win last week but all that does is provide us with a great opportunity.
Miami is a weak favorite but a solid pooch. There is no question that Ryan Tannehill is a hot & cold quarterback but Cincinnati?s QB Andy Dalton has an identical Passer Rating this season and has only tossed half as many touchdowns. As Dalton's mentor, Hue Jackson, has left him. Who is now there to pick up the pieces?
The Bengals are 1-2 but could easily be 0-3 after a 23-22 victory over the Jets in Week 1. Perhaps the Bengals are still really good, as they have played the Jets, Steelers and Broncos thus far but if they are, we have not seen it yet. Cinci?s defense has not been good. If it were good, both the Jets and Broncos offense would not have been able to move the ball as easily as they did. The Bengals corners were ripped up by the Denver wideouts last week.
Andy Dalton had just 206 yards and no scores when the Broncos showed up last week. Dalton is still without tight end Tyler Eifert and that hurts. His wide receivers have been of marginal help outside of A.J. Green and his one monster game. This market is largely ignoring the Bengals struggles thus far in favour of putting too much emphasis on the Dolphins nearly losing to Cleveland. Let us point out that the Dolphins were coming off road games against Seattle and New England before facing the Earthtones and they were in a position to win both. Perhaps the Bengals wake up here and play their first real complete game of the year but with plenty of questions about the defense, passing game and replaced coaches, we can't take this team seriously as a contender to repeat as division winners. Through three games, the Bengals are 0-3 against the spread and haven't looked anything like a team with which we'd want to lay heavy weight with on a short week
I don't know about you guys, but I don't feel comfortable laying four touchdowns with a team that's ranked 124th in the country in total defense. Only four teams are allowing more yards than Texas Tech. Also, last years contest was decided by just 10 points when Kansas was a 33-point underdog at home. I know the Jayhawks are brutal and haven't won a road game in years. However, this play is more of a fade from Texas Tech and it's trash defense than anything.
UConn at Houston
Play: UConn
Even with the massive spread, books know they are going to get a lot of action on this game. The betting public has a hard time not playing these weekday games. Oddsmakers have inflated this line, knowing the public money will be all on the Cougars. They really have no choice here but to set a high number with the opponent being Connecticut. The Huskies aren?t a popular team and aren?t perceived to be any good. The public would much rather lay the points with a team like Houston than stomach backing the dog. Especially, when that team hasn?t covered a game all season. While it?s been a rough go for Connecticut against the number, this team could easily be 3-1. The Huskies had a 24-21 lead late in the 4th quarter at Navy, but ended up losing 24-28. They also played well in their loss against Syracuse. They had a 23-19 edge in first downs and controlled the clock for 38 minutes and 30 seconds. The difference in the game being a 22-yard interception for a touchdown late in the 3rd quarter.
I know Houston isn?t going to overlook the Huskies after what happened last year. However, four touchdowns is a big number to be laying in a conference game. At the same time, Connecticut is going to be up for this game. They have a chance to show to play in the national spotlight against a highly ranked team. People also discredit their win over Houston last year, due to Greg Ward Jr. not playing. Connecticut is holding teams to just 22.5 ppg and only 381 ypg. While not great, defense is one of the strengths of this team. Houston did struggle offensively a couple weeks ago against Cincinnati. The Cougars actually trailed 12-16 in the 4th quarter. Turnovers by the Bearcats late led to a very misleading 40-16 win. UConn isn't a team that's going to lay down, even if they are down big late. With a potential showdown against undefeated Navy on deck, I think the Cougars call off the dogs late in this one.
The run defense for Houston has been outstanding of late. They have held each of their last 3 opponents to 33 yards or less. However, they are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 home games after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games. It's also important to note that UConn has the ability to throw the ball. The Huskies come in completing 67.5% of their pass attempts against teams who on average are only allowing opposing QB's to complete 58.8%. We also find a solid system in play favoring a fade of the Cougars. Home favorites that are allowing 225 or less total yards in their last 3 games are 9-31 (22%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
In the Sights, Saturday NCAA?
Let?s go to a spot where I believe the revenge motivation matters, and also one in which the value is proper to take advantage of it, backing #214 Boise State (10:15 Eastern) on Saturday night. This one is sitting at -20 across the board this morning, and would be good up through -21.
Bryan Harsin could easily steer his Broncos in the direction of Redemption rather than Revenge, with the 52-26 loss to Utah State in Logan last October among the strangest games I have ever recorded. The victorious Aggies only had 15 first downs and 334 yards, managing just 4.9 per play, but in an amazing sequence a Boise State offense that only turned the ball over 12 times in the other 11 regular-season games coughed it up eight times in a span of nine possessions. That included five fumbles, for a team that only lost four fumbles in the other 11 games.
Not only does that put a bulls-eye on this game, but the Broncos are well-set to not only hit the target, but to smash it. There will be about as much energy focused in as we will find in a game in which a team is favored by three touchdowns ? Boise had a bye two weeks ago, and backed off early after leading 31-7 at halftime vs. Oregon State on Saturday. Not only does that energy help, but from a line value standpoint consider how misleading the scoreboards were at both UL-Lafayette, where a 35-3 halftime lead only turned into 45-10, and at Oregon State, where the final only went to 38-24. Each of those games could have easily scored in double figures beyond the final margin.
Meanwhile Utah State has been a discussion point both in these threads and on the NCAA Podcasts ? much credit has to be given for the great run the program had, including that peak season of 11-2 in 2012, but that is not sustainable in Logan. The current edition was not able to compete in the only road trip, a 45-7 loss at USC, and until Devonte Mays gets back to 100 percent the running game will not be there to establish any balance in the offense. That leaves the defense on the field far too long, and with the Broncos being able to attack in so many ways, whether it be Brett Rypien spreading the ball vertically (8.3 yards per pass), or Jeremy McNichols working behind an excellent OL (he ran for 208 at Oregon State), the Aggie defenders become vulnerable as the game goes on. With the focus that Harsin and his team are bringing, I also don?t expect them to back off the throttle; this is a prime example of one of those ?Control Element? settings.
