10:30 PM NBA [710] Phoenix Suns -5-115
09:30 PM CBB [758] Baylor -5.5 -110
06:30 PM CBB [764] Louisiana Tech -4.5 -105
05:30 PM CBB [786] Fresno State -127
07:05 PM NHL [1] New York Rangers -120
07:35 PM NHL [6] TOTAL u5.5 -125 (Minnesota Wild vrs Tampa Bay Lightning)
10:35 PM NHL [19] TOTAL o5-125 (Nashville Predators vrs Los Angeles Kings)
1 unit bet pays 72 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
is it hard for a CBB team to beat the same foe 3 times in one season? evidently not!...
According to STATS LLC., there have been 981 similar matchups across Division I college basketball over the past 10 seasons. The teams entering the third game 2-0 are a combined 710-271 (.724 winning percentage) in the third meeting.
Fordham vs. George Mason
Pick: George Mason -4
Long before the A-10 expanded, Fordham was always considered the dreg of the conference. Thus, it's pretty surprising to see that the Rams have covered six straight times against any opponent. To be fair, they are actually 6-0-1 ATS vs. today's opponent (George Mason) w/ the push coming in the last meeting. But with this number so low and the Rams only averaging 61.8 PPG away from home, my recommendation is to lay the points here.
We all remember George Mason's stunning run to the Final Four back in 2006. That will not be happening again anytime soon, sadly. But the Patriots should absolutely advance here and move on to play long-time rival VCU in the quarterfinals. GMU didn't end its regular season particularly well (lost 4 of 5), but that was actually preceded by a four-game win streak. So they've been streaky. A 72-60 loss to VCU in the reg season finale actually bodes well here considering the Patriots are a perfect 3-0 ATS this year after scoring 60 pts or less the previous game.
Fordham lost its last three reg season games, two of them at home. They split the season series w/ George Mason, winning at home (73-62), but losing on the road (73-67). Shockingly, that home win was G Mason's first of any kind over Fordham since joining the A-10! I just think that the Patriots are the far better team here and they've fared much better away from home this season than has Fordham.
Texas A&M vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Under 131
Both teams have struggled to score and have been inept offensively of late. Vandy has gone under in 4 of the last 5 and 12 of 13 off a win. In neutral court games the Commodores are 6 of 8 under if the total is 130 to 135. Texas A@M has stayed under in the last 3 and all 3 times with road loss revenge. In games as a neutral court underdog they have 8 of 11 ti the under and 7 of 10 vs winning teams. this should be a close lower scoring game.
Indiana vs. Iowa
Play: Indiana -1
The Hoosiers own a huge advantage on the glass with them outrebounding all foes by an average of 8.0 rebounds per game. Iowa checks in just about even. That advantage however didn?t play out in the team?s lone meeting in Iowa City where the Hawkeyes hung tough only losing the battle of the boards 36-33. Most importantly, they also competed on the offensive glass snagging 12 of their own to Indiana?s 14. Thomas Bryant went for a game-high 11 rebounds, but he?ll need to take his game to the next level to get his club into the next round.
Iowa hasn?t logged a win in the B1G tourney since trouncing Northwestern back in 2013. It?s been three straight first game exits for the Hawkeyes since, but they went on to partake in the NCAA Tournament immediately after. That won?t be the case here today. If they fall to the Hoosiers, they?re done. Likewise for Indiana who needs only to win this tournament to have a shot at lacing up their dancing shoes. Iowa was the beneficiary of some major home cooking in shooting 47 free throws to the Hoosiers 19 in their OT victory. That won?t occur here on a neutral court. I actually have Indiana pegged as making some noise in this tournament, and for that to occur, they have to get by Iowa first. I expect them to do just that.
Indiana vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa +2
The Iowa Hawkeyes have played themselves onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with some impressive wins along the way.
They beat Indiana 96-90 in overtime, won 83-69 at Maryland as 6.5-point road dogs and upset Wisconsin 59-57 as 11.5-point road dogs. They also thumped Penn State 90-79 at home as 7.5-point favorites to close out the regular season. Now they aren't getting the respect they deserve once again as 2-point dogs to Indiana here.
The Hoosiers have been a mess in Big Ten play, especially down the stretch. They are just 3-8 SU & 4-6-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Oh how far this team has fallen since some impressive non-conference wins early in the season over Kansas and UNC.
Indiana is 1-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Hoosiers are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams who average 16 or more assists per game over the last three seasons. Indiana is 15-35-1 ATS in its last 51 games following an ATS win. The Hoosiers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games as a favorite. The Hawkeyes are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings.
Indiana vs. Iowa
Play: Over 157
Tournament play can often be about intense defense...but not this game, as a pair of Big 10 teams that love to run collide. Indiana (17-14) is #2 in the Big 10 in scoring (80.4 ppg), but on 2-8 SU, 4-5-1 ATS run because of no defense, second to last in the conference in points allowed (73.3 ppg). James Blackmon Jr (17 ppg, 4.6 rpg) and guard Rob Johnson (13.3 ppg) lead the attack on a team that is 12-3 over the total against a team with a winning straight up record. Iowa (18-13 SU) loves to run, too, under Coach Fran McCaffery, on 7-3 SU/ATS run 6-6 senior Peter Jok (20.2 pg, 5.7 r), 6-8 freshman Cordell Pemsl (9 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and 6-9 freshman Tyler Cook (12 ppg, 5 rpg) lead and offense that is #3 in Big 10 in scoring (80.2 ppg), but last in points allowed (77 ppg). The Over is 4-1 in the Hawkeyes last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Iowa beat Indiana at home in OT 96-90 in a game that went over the total of 159, part of a 4-1 over when these rivals clash.
Creighton vs. Providence
Play: Providence +2?
I really like the value here with the Friars as an underdog against the Bluejays. These two teams closed out the regular season going in completely different directions. Providence enters the Big East tournament having won 6 straight and are 8-1 ATS in their last 9. Creighton on the other hand is just 5-7 in their last 12 and their fall coincided with the loss of star point guard Mo Watson. Note that they were just 3-5 in their last 8 and the 3 wins were against the likes of St. Johns, Georgetown and DePaul. During this run they lost at home to Providence as a 7-point favorite. I just think the Friars are the better team right now and should be the ones favored here.
Creighton is a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Friars are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as an underdog and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 against a team with a winning record.
Kansas St +5 over Baylor
Baylor's regular season r?sum? is all it needed to punch a ticket to The Main Event. The Bears tied a school record with 25 wins, reached #1 in the polls in January and finished the season with their highest ever seed in the Big 12 tournament. With that said, all the talk coming out of Waco about the Bears being focused on cutting down the nets in Kansas City rings a little hollow. Baylor loves to talk, and talk, and talk. After an impressive winning streak earlier this season, the Bears made it known they were determined to break the school's win record. It was all just talk, as Baylor went just 5-5 in its following 10 games. The Bears needed two straight wins to close out their season just to tie the record. A Big 12 title does nothing to help or hurt their chances in The NCAA Tournament. Currently, the #10 ranked Bears are a projected #2 seed. Even a Big 12 championship would not guarantee them a #1 seed.
Kansas State comes in as the #6 seed in this Big 12 tournament and couldn't be any more on the bubble. K-State finished the season strong with wins over TCU and Texas Tech, leapfrogging both teams to secure a first round bye. The Wildcats need to do some damage if they want their names to be called on Selection Sunday and a signature win over ranked Baylor would go a long way in making that a reality. Like a ball-hawking secondary in football, these Wildcats have a nose for the rock. K-State ranks 30th in the nation in turnovers forced per game, and they are second in the Big 12 in steals per game. The Big 12's bottom four is a bubble team?s worst nightmare. Getting Baylor in the opening game is much more desirable for Kansas State, which upset the Bears in Waco in early February. If the Wildcats can do that again and they have the blueprint to do so, they'll have a much more convincing. It's a pretty good setup, all things considered and we should also not ignore that the fan base here will make this a virtual home game for the underdog. When the Wildcats went into Waco about a month ago, they won outright as a 7-point dog. With this game in K-State?s backyard and the stakes much higher for than the dog than the favorite, K-State should not be getting almost the same price. We?re calling the upset but will gladly accept the inflated points.
UMKC -6? over UT Rio Grande Valley
While the entire betting population focuses on the big programs and some mid-majors, this one is completely off the radar and as a result of that, we trust we have found a short-priced favorite. Not many know anything about these teams but our focus is completely on the favorite. That said, UT Rio Grande Valley is one of the worst teams in the country that played one of the easiest schedules in the country while UMKC?s out-of-conference strength of schedule was 118 positions higher than UT Rio Grande Valley?s out-of-conference schedule.
So, why are the Kangaroos of UMKC being sold short here? For one, the Kangaroos are headed to the Western Athletic Conference tournament with an above .500 record for the first time in their four years in the league and it?s been six years since a UMKC team had a winning record entering a conference tournament. Therefore, they have no pedigree to speak of. Secondly, the Kangaroos best player and leading scorer, Martez Harrison, was suspended for a full year back in December and the ?Roos lost six straight afterward. To give you an idea of how valuable he was, Harrison was named WAC Freshman of the Year, then 2015 Player of the Year, and as a junior he led UMKC in scoring with an average of 15.4 points and 4.2 assists per game. Losing Harrison crushed the Kangaroos spirit and now the market is reluctant to spot points with an unknown team with no pedigree and without its best player. That?s where we step in and grab deflated points.
The ?Roos have their spirit back. Players have stepped up in Harrison?s absence and the transformation has been a sight to behold. UMKC has won six of its last eight games with only losses over that span occurring on the road against the two best teams in the WAC. We discussed the Kangaroos having no pedigree to bring with them into this tournament but that is not all true and it?s something not many know about. You see, UMKC coach, Kareem Richardson was an assistant on the 2012 Louisville team that won the NCAA National Championship. He accepted the UMKC job in the fall of 2013 and a Kangaroos? revival has slowly started to take shape. One cannot underestimate the value of having a guy like Richardson in charge in high stakes games against weak competition. UMKC is the vastly superior and better-prepped team that has overcome adversity and now they?re ready to take that next step in their quest to go dancing. It is highly unlikely that this opponent will get in their way or come in under this number.
Virginia Tech s. Florida St
Pick: Virginia Tech +7.5
It is all about survive and advance, and that is clear in the rugged ACC who may have as many as 10 teams get an NCAA Tournament bid. Virginia Tech won 99-90 against Georgia Tech to arrive to take on Florida State. The Hokies are 22-9 on the season, and have begun to play their best basketball of the season. Virginia Tech owns a 6-2 straight-up mark in their last eight, but more importantly this team is now 8-1 ATS in their last nine. They are getting no respect and were posted an underdog against Wake Forest, despite being a higher seed. The Hokies have an impressive 7-0 ATS mark in their last seven when taking the floor as an underdog. Florida State is just 6-5 in their last 11 games, and have not played their best down the stretch, and the line looks a bit overdone. Take the points on Virginia Tech.
Kent St +131 over Buffalo
The Bulls played their way into the top four and a bye in this tournament by winning eight of their last 10 regular season games. The Bulls finished second in the MAC after a showdown with Akron on Feb. 28 that, had the Bulls won, they may have finished first in the conference. However, they lost. The Bulls have beaten up on nothing but weak MAC teams all season long. They don?t have a good win this entire year. Some may point to the Bulls 68th ranked out-of-conference strength of schedule for credibility but what good is it if you get smoked? Against Xavier, the Bulls lost by 33 points and against Creighton they lost by 21. They also have losses this year to Canisius and Robert Morris among others. What this market will bank on is a higher seeded Bulls? squad spotting a short price against a lower seeded team but not everything is as it appears.
Kent State opened this MAC event as a 10-point favorite against Central Michigan and needed OT to beat them. That near loss is not going to endear this dog to the market but as is the case often, there is a story within the story of that game. CMU is an offensive force and came out firing on all cylinders to build up a quick 26-9 lead before the Golden Flashes knew what hit them. To come back against that offense and force OT says quite a lot about the heart and determination of this live pup. There are a slew of other positives working in the Golden Flashes favor here too.
First, this game is in Ohio so for the Ohio-based Flashes, they will get the benefit of a home crowd and that matters. Secondly, KSU has already played a game in this tournament recently (on Monday) while the Bulls have been off for six full days. Figure the Flashes to be the sharper unit because a layoff is not beneficial at all. Furthermore, give a massive rebounding edge to the Golden Flashes, as they are one of the best rebounding teams in the entire country and that figures to make a huge difference on the offensive glass. Offensive rebounds are one of the biggest reasons for major upsets in college basketball. They lead to second chance points and a new shot clock while deflating the will of the opposition at the same time. Finally, Kent State has hit their stride at the right time and they?ll come into this one with heightened confidence. They already beat the Bulls by seven back in Buffalo very recently and now get a home crowd advantage for this one. Buffalo has one win in four neutral site tries this year and that lone victory occurred in OT against Cleveland State way back in their first game of the season. UB now comes in as the chalk with everything working against them situationally and by the way, they are also the second best team in this matchup. Wrong side favored.
USC +10
The USC Trojans are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. I expect them to give the UCLA Bruins a run for their money tonight. The Trojans also want revenge from a 70-102 loss at UCLA on February 18th. The Bruins wanted that game badly to end a bad streak against USC. In fact, the Trojans had gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the previous 4 meetings, winning by 8, 24, 19 and 14 points. The Trojans are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 neutral site games as an underdog.
Portland -9.5
We're coming up on the 40-year anniversary of the epic Finals matchup between these squads in 1977, when Maurice Lucas and Darryl Dawkins squared off and Bill Walton was at the absolute height of his powers. Nothing remotely resembling that this season, and now we have to wonder if Philly might be ready to fade out of sight after putting up a good fight the past couple of months, with word that Joel Embiid is not returning from his knee woes and that Ben Simmons won't be making his NBA debut until next season. In that context, Philly's three crushing losses in the last four games appears a bit alarming, especially as it came on the heels of eight straight spread covers. No team has more games remaining against the 16 teams that currently have losing records than do the Blazers, who were 16-13 in games within that group before facing Nets on March 3. Portland's playoff hopes need Blazers to avenge 1-point loss in Philly back on Jan. 20.
Lakers vs. Suns
Play: Suns -6
I?m reluctant to buy into the actual tanking talk, but I do think there?s substance to the thought that the Lakers aren?t exactly focused on winning right now.
There?s really nothing positive to say about the team at this time. The problems begin at the top with the apparent family feud that has been taking place. I can see a case being made that this stuff has a domino effect that impacts the performance of the players and their ability, or lack of same, to function as a unit. Whether that theory has any legs is debatable, but what isn?t is that this is a terrible team right now.
The Suns are definitely not tanking. Phoenix is playing with tremendous enthusiasm and I don?t see any reason that won?t be the case again tonight. My only holdup on adding this as an official play are a couple of injury notes on the Phoenix side. But if all hands are on deck, I will be laying the points with the Suns tonight.
Clippers vs. Grizzlies
Play: Grizzlies -3
The Los Angeles Clippers are in Memphis for the final game of a mini two-game road trip that saw them play in the Twin Cities last night. Prior to their trip to Minnesota last night they were at home for a one-game home stand after another two-game mini road swing. One of the NBA?s many scheduling situations that can be taken advantage of during the regular season. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 8.94 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 6.91 points against the current line range of -2.5 to -4.5. Both of those primary matrix averages favor the hometown Grizzlies on Thursday night. Finally we want to play ON an NBA home team who lost their last game by ten or more points as a favorite and is playing with 2 days rest. The Grizzlies lost at home on Monday night to the Brooklyn Nets who were installed as 10.5 point road underdogs pulling off the upset 122 to 109. Our system listed above has a record of 69-41 ATS for 62.7 percent winners and calls for a play on the Memphis Grizzlies Thursday night.
Spurs vs. Thunder
Play: Spurs -3
What a difference a year makes. When OKC won the final three games of the playoff series against San Antonio last season, Kevin Durant scored a combined 101 points, for an average of nearly 34 ppg. And with KD on the floor, Russell Westbrook averaged 26 ppg, 7 rpg, and 12 apg in the same three games. Obviously, the on-court symmetry between the two is a huge missing part for this team with KD playing (sidelined) in the bay area. Westbrook is putting up phenomenal numbers, but the team is not at the level it once was. Add in the fact that not only did the Spurs whip OKC 118-104 earlier this season, but Pop rested Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge on Wednesday, which signals to us that he's probably "going for it" on Thursday. The two combined for 61 points and 14 rebounds in the January win over OKC and we expect another wide margin victory tonight. The chalk is 23-9-1 ATS in this series and the Thunder have dropped four in a row SU & ATS, overall, allowing 115.5 ppg on 50.7% shooting. Westbrook has made just 14 of 47, 29.8% of his 3-pointers during the skid and his team has made just 32 of 111, 28.8% of their 3's in those games, overall.
Nashville vs. Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -135
The set-up: The 32-24-10 Nashville Predators finished February with a flourish, scoring 19 goals during their four-game winning streak. However, the offense has taken a step back in a three-game winless skid (0-2-1) to open the month of March. The Predators look to get it together tonight, when they continue their trek through California by visiting the 31-28-6 Los Angeles Kings. The Kings are just 4-7-2 in their last 13 games and with 68 points, are three points 'south' of the West's final wild card spot (Blues own 71 points).
Nashville: The Predators have stopped scoring, with just seven goals during their current losing streak. Captain Mike Fisher has eclipsed last season's totals in goals (16), assists (22) and points (38), plus leads the team in hits (135) and owns a 54.2 percent faceoff efficiency that is the best of his career. Nashville centers Johansen and Forberg are tied for the team lead in points (51) but the team's fourth center, Calle Jarnkrok, has 15 points (seven goals & eight assists) in the past 19 games.
LA Kings: Tanner Pearson is enjoying a career season by setting personal bests in both goals (22) and points (40), but the 24-year-old isn't too keen on discussing the business side of hockey at the moment , which has him becoming a restricted free agent on July 1. LA's leading scorer is Jeff Carter (30 goals and 26 assists) scored a goal in each game against the Predators this season and has 25 points (16 goals, nine assists) in 24 career games against Nashville.
The pick: The Kings haven't played since losing 4-3 at home to the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday night. They took Sunday off and practiced hard Monday and Wednesday. The Predators are hoping to avoid a season-long four-game losing streak tonight but they've lost four of their last five to the Kings overall, most recently a 4-0 shutout in Nashville back on Dec. 22.
Wild vs. Lightning
Play: Under 5.5
Here are some stats to back up our play: Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay. Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings. Under is 4-1 in Wild last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 18-6-8 in Wild last 32 vs. Atlantic. Under is 5-1-2 in Lightning last 8 vs. Western Conference. Under is 4-1-1 in Lightning last 6 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 9-3 in Lightning last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Under is 5-2-1 in Lightning last 8 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Vancouver +1.5
With the Isles favored on the ML, we're able to get the Canucks at a "relatively" reasonable price on the puck-line, at +1.5 goals. The Isles may have won at Edmonton last time out but they're still 11-20 vs. the money-line on the road. They still get outscored by an average of 3.2 to 2.6 on the road. Asking them to win by more than a goal, is asking an awful lot, particularly when the Canucks have a winning record (18-15) at home. While I do like the Canucks to win the game "outright," in this case, with the Canucks off three consecutive 1-goal games, I'm just a little more comfortable with that extra +1.5 goals.
Philadelphia +134 over TORONTO
OT included. The Detroit Red Wings got buried 6-1 in Boston last night. Detroit went into Toronto on Tuesday and the Maple Leafs hung on for dear life in a 3-2 win. The Vancouver Canucks went into Los Angeles and Anaheim last week in back-to-back games and emerged 2-0 against that pair. The Maple Leafs went into Los Angeles and Anaheim last week in back-to-back games and went 0-2 while getting buried in Anaheim. While we have nothing but accolades to throw Toronto?s way and the direction in which they are going, they are a fragile team right now with young players on their heels. This time of year is when the stakes get higher and Toronto is loaded with players that do not want to make a mistake that ends up costing them a game. The aggressiveness that the Leafs played with for the first four months of the season is just not prevalent anymore. Very few Maple Leafs have experienced this type of pressure at this time of the year and it?s showing. Toronto has four wins over its last 13 games. Those victories occurred against the Islanders, Winnipeg, Carolina and Detroit. The Leafs have 11 wins in 34 games against top-16 competition and that?s when they were playing great. Right now, the Maple Leafs look like a tired and somewhat scared team while Philadelphia is coming on strong.
Philly has picked up seven out of a possible eight points over its last four games. The only point they missed over that stretch was when they went into Washington last Saturday and lost in OT. Philadelphia?s last three losses have been to Washington twice and Pittsburgh once. The Flyers are coming off a dominant 6-3 victory in Buffalo on Tuesday to pull within three points of that last Wild Card spot. The Flyers are two points behind the Maple Leafs so a win here and they only need to leapfrog over one more team. If we?re playing value, the Flyers must be bet here. If we?re playing the team in better form with momentum, the Flyers must be bet here. Thus, the conclusion is a no brainer. The Flyers must be bet here.
Montreal +102 over CALGARY
OT included. The Canadiens have their swag back while Claude Julien has them playing his winning brand of hockey. Montreal has reeled off six in a row and it?s getting better with each passing victory. Montreal is not only winning but they are shooting up the charts in puck possession numbers. The Habs have outshot their last four opponents while cutting way down on shots allowed. Montreal is now 2-0 on this curremnt road trip after dominating both the Rangers in New York and the Canucks in Vancouver. They?ll now face the hottest team in the NHL and there is no question that Montreal cannot wait for this challenge. The Canadiens also have a significant edge in goal.
You may recall that we were the first to point out the ?fade teams? coming off their bye week angle? and it?s not something we just happened to pull at of our hats. As an observer of this sport and paying close attention to situations, we noticed that teams? coming off layoffs of more than three days were usually flat. Times that by two and we saw an opportunity that worked out but it doesn?t mean we have to wait until next year to attack that angle again. Coming off their bye against Arizona on February 13th, the Flames lost 5-0. Calgary would subsequently go on a tear by winning eight of its next nine games, which was capped off by its easy 5-2 victory over the Islanders last Sunday. It?s now four days later and the Flames have to go through a lengthy layoff by NHL standards for the second time this month and this is not Arizona. The Flames are a strong team whose stock is high but they are in a horrible situational spot against a hot Carey Price and it?s not likely going to work out in Calgary?s favor.
"RAYMOND IS FEELING THE MAD" me too!
09:30 PM CBB [758] Baylor -5.5 -110
06:30 PM CBB [764] Louisiana Tech -4.5 -105
05:30 PM CBB [786] Fresno State -127
07:05 PM NHL [1] New York Rangers -120
07:35 PM NHL [6] TOTAL u5.5 -125 (Minnesota Wild vrs Tampa Bay Lightning)
10:35 PM NHL [19] TOTAL o5-125 (Nashville Predators vrs Los Angeles Kings)
1 unit bet pays 72 ....betdsi line
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast: :SIB:em71:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
is it hard for a CBB team to beat the same foe 3 times in one season? evidently not!...
According to STATS LLC., there have been 981 similar matchups across Division I college basketball over the past 10 seasons. The teams entering the third game 2-0 are a combined 710-271 (.724 winning percentage) in the third meeting.
Fordham vs. George Mason
Pick: George Mason -4
Long before the A-10 expanded, Fordham was always considered the dreg of the conference. Thus, it's pretty surprising to see that the Rams have covered six straight times against any opponent. To be fair, they are actually 6-0-1 ATS vs. today's opponent (George Mason) w/ the push coming in the last meeting. But with this number so low and the Rams only averaging 61.8 PPG away from home, my recommendation is to lay the points here.
We all remember George Mason's stunning run to the Final Four back in 2006. That will not be happening again anytime soon, sadly. But the Patriots should absolutely advance here and move on to play long-time rival VCU in the quarterfinals. GMU didn't end its regular season particularly well (lost 4 of 5), but that was actually preceded by a four-game win streak. So they've been streaky. A 72-60 loss to VCU in the reg season finale actually bodes well here considering the Patriots are a perfect 3-0 ATS this year after scoring 60 pts or less the previous game.
Fordham lost its last three reg season games, two of them at home. They split the season series w/ George Mason, winning at home (73-62), but losing on the road (73-67). Shockingly, that home win was G Mason's first of any kind over Fordham since joining the A-10! I just think that the Patriots are the far better team here and they've fared much better away from home this season than has Fordham.
Texas A&M vs. Vanderbilt
Play: Under 131
Both teams have struggled to score and have been inept offensively of late. Vandy has gone under in 4 of the last 5 and 12 of 13 off a win. In neutral court games the Commodores are 6 of 8 under if the total is 130 to 135. Texas A@M has stayed under in the last 3 and all 3 times with road loss revenge. In games as a neutral court underdog they have 8 of 11 ti the under and 7 of 10 vs winning teams. this should be a close lower scoring game.
Indiana vs. Iowa
Play: Indiana -1
The Hoosiers own a huge advantage on the glass with them outrebounding all foes by an average of 8.0 rebounds per game. Iowa checks in just about even. That advantage however didn?t play out in the team?s lone meeting in Iowa City where the Hawkeyes hung tough only losing the battle of the boards 36-33. Most importantly, they also competed on the offensive glass snagging 12 of their own to Indiana?s 14. Thomas Bryant went for a game-high 11 rebounds, but he?ll need to take his game to the next level to get his club into the next round.
Iowa hasn?t logged a win in the B1G tourney since trouncing Northwestern back in 2013. It?s been three straight first game exits for the Hawkeyes since, but they went on to partake in the NCAA Tournament immediately after. That won?t be the case here today. If they fall to the Hoosiers, they?re done. Likewise for Indiana who needs only to win this tournament to have a shot at lacing up their dancing shoes. Iowa was the beneficiary of some major home cooking in shooting 47 free throws to the Hoosiers 19 in their OT victory. That won?t occur here on a neutral court. I actually have Indiana pegged as making some noise in this tournament, and for that to occur, they have to get by Iowa first. I expect them to do just that.
Indiana vs. Iowa
Play: Iowa +2
The Iowa Hawkeyes have played themselves onto the bubble of the NCAA Tournament by playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch. They are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall with some impressive wins along the way.
They beat Indiana 96-90 in overtime, won 83-69 at Maryland as 6.5-point road dogs and upset Wisconsin 59-57 as 11.5-point road dogs. They also thumped Penn State 90-79 at home as 7.5-point favorites to close out the regular season. Now they aren't getting the respect they deserve once again as 2-point dogs to Indiana here.
The Hoosiers have been a mess in Big Ten play, especially down the stretch. They are just 3-8 SU & 4-6-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Oh how far this team has fallen since some impressive non-conference wins early in the season over Kansas and UNC.
Indiana is 1-7 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Hoosiers are 0-7 ATS in road games vs. good passing teams who average 16 or more assists per game over the last three seasons. Indiana is 15-35-1 ATS in its last 51 games following an ATS win. The Hoosiers are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 neutral site games as a favorite. The Hawkeyes are 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings.
Indiana vs. Iowa
Play: Over 157
Tournament play can often be about intense defense...but not this game, as a pair of Big 10 teams that love to run collide. Indiana (17-14) is #2 in the Big 10 in scoring (80.4 ppg), but on 2-8 SU, 4-5-1 ATS run because of no defense, second to last in the conference in points allowed (73.3 ppg). James Blackmon Jr (17 ppg, 4.6 rpg) and guard Rob Johnson (13.3 ppg) lead the attack on a team that is 12-3 over the total against a team with a winning straight up record. Iowa (18-13 SU) loves to run, too, under Coach Fran McCaffery, on 7-3 SU/ATS run 6-6 senior Peter Jok (20.2 pg, 5.7 r), 6-8 freshman Cordell Pemsl (9 ppg, 4.7 rpg) and 6-9 freshman Tyler Cook (12 ppg, 5 rpg) lead and offense that is #3 in Big 10 in scoring (80.2 ppg), but last in points allowed (77 ppg). The Over is 4-1 in the Hawkeyes last 5 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. Iowa beat Indiana at home in OT 96-90 in a game that went over the total of 159, part of a 4-1 over when these rivals clash.
Creighton vs. Providence
Play: Providence +2?
I really like the value here with the Friars as an underdog against the Bluejays. These two teams closed out the regular season going in completely different directions. Providence enters the Big East tournament having won 6 straight and are 8-1 ATS in their last 9. Creighton on the other hand is just 5-7 in their last 12 and their fall coincided with the loss of star point guard Mo Watson. Note that they were just 3-5 in their last 8 and the 3 wins were against the likes of St. Johns, Georgetown and DePaul. During this run they lost at home to Providence as a 7-point favorite. I just think the Friars are the better team right now and should be the ones favored here.
Creighton is a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 against a team with a winning record and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 against a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Friars are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 neutral site games as an underdog and 21-6 ATS in their last 27 against a team with a winning record.
Kansas St +5 over Baylor
Baylor's regular season r?sum? is all it needed to punch a ticket to The Main Event. The Bears tied a school record with 25 wins, reached #1 in the polls in January and finished the season with their highest ever seed in the Big 12 tournament. With that said, all the talk coming out of Waco about the Bears being focused on cutting down the nets in Kansas City rings a little hollow. Baylor loves to talk, and talk, and talk. After an impressive winning streak earlier this season, the Bears made it known they were determined to break the school's win record. It was all just talk, as Baylor went just 5-5 in its following 10 games. The Bears needed two straight wins to close out their season just to tie the record. A Big 12 title does nothing to help or hurt their chances in The NCAA Tournament. Currently, the #10 ranked Bears are a projected #2 seed. Even a Big 12 championship would not guarantee them a #1 seed.
Kansas State comes in as the #6 seed in this Big 12 tournament and couldn't be any more on the bubble. K-State finished the season strong with wins over TCU and Texas Tech, leapfrogging both teams to secure a first round bye. The Wildcats need to do some damage if they want their names to be called on Selection Sunday and a signature win over ranked Baylor would go a long way in making that a reality. Like a ball-hawking secondary in football, these Wildcats have a nose for the rock. K-State ranks 30th in the nation in turnovers forced per game, and they are second in the Big 12 in steals per game. The Big 12's bottom four is a bubble team?s worst nightmare. Getting Baylor in the opening game is much more desirable for Kansas State, which upset the Bears in Waco in early February. If the Wildcats can do that again and they have the blueprint to do so, they'll have a much more convincing. It's a pretty good setup, all things considered and we should also not ignore that the fan base here will make this a virtual home game for the underdog. When the Wildcats went into Waco about a month ago, they won outright as a 7-point dog. With this game in K-State?s backyard and the stakes much higher for than the dog than the favorite, K-State should not be getting almost the same price. We?re calling the upset but will gladly accept the inflated points.
UMKC -6? over UT Rio Grande Valley
While the entire betting population focuses on the big programs and some mid-majors, this one is completely off the radar and as a result of that, we trust we have found a short-priced favorite. Not many know anything about these teams but our focus is completely on the favorite. That said, UT Rio Grande Valley is one of the worst teams in the country that played one of the easiest schedules in the country while UMKC?s out-of-conference strength of schedule was 118 positions higher than UT Rio Grande Valley?s out-of-conference schedule.
So, why are the Kangaroos of UMKC being sold short here? For one, the Kangaroos are headed to the Western Athletic Conference tournament with an above .500 record for the first time in their four years in the league and it?s been six years since a UMKC team had a winning record entering a conference tournament. Therefore, they have no pedigree to speak of. Secondly, the Kangaroos best player and leading scorer, Martez Harrison, was suspended for a full year back in December and the ?Roos lost six straight afterward. To give you an idea of how valuable he was, Harrison was named WAC Freshman of the Year, then 2015 Player of the Year, and as a junior he led UMKC in scoring with an average of 15.4 points and 4.2 assists per game. Losing Harrison crushed the Kangaroos spirit and now the market is reluctant to spot points with an unknown team with no pedigree and without its best player. That?s where we step in and grab deflated points.
The ?Roos have their spirit back. Players have stepped up in Harrison?s absence and the transformation has been a sight to behold. UMKC has won six of its last eight games with only losses over that span occurring on the road against the two best teams in the WAC. We discussed the Kangaroos having no pedigree to bring with them into this tournament but that is not all true and it?s something not many know about. You see, UMKC coach, Kareem Richardson was an assistant on the 2012 Louisville team that won the NCAA National Championship. He accepted the UMKC job in the fall of 2013 and a Kangaroos? revival has slowly started to take shape. One cannot underestimate the value of having a guy like Richardson in charge in high stakes games against weak competition. UMKC is the vastly superior and better-prepped team that has overcome adversity and now they?re ready to take that next step in their quest to go dancing. It is highly unlikely that this opponent will get in their way or come in under this number.
Virginia Tech s. Florida St
Pick: Virginia Tech +7.5
It is all about survive and advance, and that is clear in the rugged ACC who may have as many as 10 teams get an NCAA Tournament bid. Virginia Tech won 99-90 against Georgia Tech to arrive to take on Florida State. The Hokies are 22-9 on the season, and have begun to play their best basketball of the season. Virginia Tech owns a 6-2 straight-up mark in their last eight, but more importantly this team is now 8-1 ATS in their last nine. They are getting no respect and were posted an underdog against Wake Forest, despite being a higher seed. The Hokies have an impressive 7-0 ATS mark in their last seven when taking the floor as an underdog. Florida State is just 6-5 in their last 11 games, and have not played their best down the stretch, and the line looks a bit overdone. Take the points on Virginia Tech.
Kent St +131 over Buffalo
The Bulls played their way into the top four and a bye in this tournament by winning eight of their last 10 regular season games. The Bulls finished second in the MAC after a showdown with Akron on Feb. 28 that, had the Bulls won, they may have finished first in the conference. However, they lost. The Bulls have beaten up on nothing but weak MAC teams all season long. They don?t have a good win this entire year. Some may point to the Bulls 68th ranked out-of-conference strength of schedule for credibility but what good is it if you get smoked? Against Xavier, the Bulls lost by 33 points and against Creighton they lost by 21. They also have losses this year to Canisius and Robert Morris among others. What this market will bank on is a higher seeded Bulls? squad spotting a short price against a lower seeded team but not everything is as it appears.
Kent State opened this MAC event as a 10-point favorite against Central Michigan and needed OT to beat them. That near loss is not going to endear this dog to the market but as is the case often, there is a story within the story of that game. CMU is an offensive force and came out firing on all cylinders to build up a quick 26-9 lead before the Golden Flashes knew what hit them. To come back against that offense and force OT says quite a lot about the heart and determination of this live pup. There are a slew of other positives working in the Golden Flashes favor here too.
First, this game is in Ohio so for the Ohio-based Flashes, they will get the benefit of a home crowd and that matters. Secondly, KSU has already played a game in this tournament recently (on Monday) while the Bulls have been off for six full days. Figure the Flashes to be the sharper unit because a layoff is not beneficial at all. Furthermore, give a massive rebounding edge to the Golden Flashes, as they are one of the best rebounding teams in the entire country and that figures to make a huge difference on the offensive glass. Offensive rebounds are one of the biggest reasons for major upsets in college basketball. They lead to second chance points and a new shot clock while deflating the will of the opposition at the same time. Finally, Kent State has hit their stride at the right time and they?ll come into this one with heightened confidence. They already beat the Bulls by seven back in Buffalo very recently and now get a home crowd advantage for this one. Buffalo has one win in four neutral site tries this year and that lone victory occurred in OT against Cleveland State way back in their first game of the season. UB now comes in as the chalk with everything working against them situationally and by the way, they are also the second best team in this matchup. Wrong side favored.
USC +10
The USC Trojans are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. I expect them to give the UCLA Bruins a run for their money tonight. The Trojans also want revenge from a 70-102 loss at UCLA on February 18th. The Bruins wanted that game badly to end a bad streak against USC. In fact, the Trojans had gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the previous 4 meetings, winning by 8, 24, 19 and 14 points. The Trojans are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 neutral site games as an underdog.
Portland -9.5
We're coming up on the 40-year anniversary of the epic Finals matchup between these squads in 1977, when Maurice Lucas and Darryl Dawkins squared off and Bill Walton was at the absolute height of his powers. Nothing remotely resembling that this season, and now we have to wonder if Philly might be ready to fade out of sight after putting up a good fight the past couple of months, with word that Joel Embiid is not returning from his knee woes and that Ben Simmons won't be making his NBA debut until next season. In that context, Philly's three crushing losses in the last four games appears a bit alarming, especially as it came on the heels of eight straight spread covers. No team has more games remaining against the 16 teams that currently have losing records than do the Blazers, who were 16-13 in games within that group before facing Nets on March 3. Portland's playoff hopes need Blazers to avenge 1-point loss in Philly back on Jan. 20.
Lakers vs. Suns
Play: Suns -6
I?m reluctant to buy into the actual tanking talk, but I do think there?s substance to the thought that the Lakers aren?t exactly focused on winning right now.
There?s really nothing positive to say about the team at this time. The problems begin at the top with the apparent family feud that has been taking place. I can see a case being made that this stuff has a domino effect that impacts the performance of the players and their ability, or lack of same, to function as a unit. Whether that theory has any legs is debatable, but what isn?t is that this is a terrible team right now.
The Suns are definitely not tanking. Phoenix is playing with tremendous enthusiasm and I don?t see any reason that won?t be the case again tonight. My only holdup on adding this as an official play are a couple of injury notes on the Phoenix side. But if all hands are on deck, I will be laying the points with the Suns tonight.
Clippers vs. Grizzlies
Play: Grizzlies -3
The Los Angeles Clippers are in Memphis for the final game of a mini two-game road trip that saw them play in the Twin Cities last night. Prior to their trip to Minnesota last night they were at home for a one-game home stand after another two-game mini road swing. One of the NBA?s many scheduling situations that can be taken advantage of during the regular season. Our BTPR Index projects a point advantage of 8.94 points. The BMM projects a point differential of 6.91 points against the current line range of -2.5 to -4.5. Both of those primary matrix averages favor the hometown Grizzlies on Thursday night. Finally we want to play ON an NBA home team who lost their last game by ten or more points as a favorite and is playing with 2 days rest. The Grizzlies lost at home on Monday night to the Brooklyn Nets who were installed as 10.5 point road underdogs pulling off the upset 122 to 109. Our system listed above has a record of 69-41 ATS for 62.7 percent winners and calls for a play on the Memphis Grizzlies Thursday night.
Spurs vs. Thunder
Play: Spurs -3
What a difference a year makes. When OKC won the final three games of the playoff series against San Antonio last season, Kevin Durant scored a combined 101 points, for an average of nearly 34 ppg. And with KD on the floor, Russell Westbrook averaged 26 ppg, 7 rpg, and 12 apg in the same three games. Obviously, the on-court symmetry between the two is a huge missing part for this team with KD playing (sidelined) in the bay area. Westbrook is putting up phenomenal numbers, but the team is not at the level it once was. Add in the fact that not only did the Spurs whip OKC 118-104 earlier this season, but Pop rested Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge on Wednesday, which signals to us that he's probably "going for it" on Thursday. The two combined for 61 points and 14 rebounds in the January win over OKC and we expect another wide margin victory tonight. The chalk is 23-9-1 ATS in this series and the Thunder have dropped four in a row SU & ATS, overall, allowing 115.5 ppg on 50.7% shooting. Westbrook has made just 14 of 47, 29.8% of his 3-pointers during the skid and his team has made just 32 of 111, 28.8% of their 3's in those games, overall.
Nashville vs. Los Angeles
Pick: Los Angeles -135
The set-up: The 32-24-10 Nashville Predators finished February with a flourish, scoring 19 goals during their four-game winning streak. However, the offense has taken a step back in a three-game winless skid (0-2-1) to open the month of March. The Predators look to get it together tonight, when they continue their trek through California by visiting the 31-28-6 Los Angeles Kings. The Kings are just 4-7-2 in their last 13 games and with 68 points, are three points 'south' of the West's final wild card spot (Blues own 71 points).
Nashville: The Predators have stopped scoring, with just seven goals during their current losing streak. Captain Mike Fisher has eclipsed last season's totals in goals (16), assists (22) and points (38), plus leads the team in hits (135) and owns a 54.2 percent faceoff efficiency that is the best of his career. Nashville centers Johansen and Forberg are tied for the team lead in points (51) but the team's fourth center, Calle Jarnkrok, has 15 points (seven goals & eight assists) in the past 19 games.
LA Kings: Tanner Pearson is enjoying a career season by setting personal bests in both goals (22) and points (40), but the 24-year-old isn't too keen on discussing the business side of hockey at the moment , which has him becoming a restricted free agent on July 1. LA's leading scorer is Jeff Carter (30 goals and 26 assists) scored a goal in each game against the Predators this season and has 25 points (16 goals, nine assists) in 24 career games against Nashville.
The pick: The Kings haven't played since losing 4-3 at home to the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday night. They took Sunday off and practiced hard Monday and Wednesday. The Predators are hoping to avoid a season-long four-game losing streak tonight but they've lost four of their last five to the Kings overall, most recently a 4-0 shutout in Nashville back on Dec. 22.
Wild vs. Lightning
Play: Under 5.5
Here are some stats to back up our play: Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Tampa Bay. Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings. Under is 4-1 in Wild last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 18-6-8 in Wild last 32 vs. Atlantic. Under is 5-1-2 in Lightning last 8 vs. Western Conference. Under is 4-1-1 in Lightning last 6 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 9-3 in Lightning last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Under is 5-2-1 in Lightning last 8 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game.
Vancouver +1.5
With the Isles favored on the ML, we're able to get the Canucks at a "relatively" reasonable price on the puck-line, at +1.5 goals. The Isles may have won at Edmonton last time out but they're still 11-20 vs. the money-line on the road. They still get outscored by an average of 3.2 to 2.6 on the road. Asking them to win by more than a goal, is asking an awful lot, particularly when the Canucks have a winning record (18-15) at home. While I do like the Canucks to win the game "outright," in this case, with the Canucks off three consecutive 1-goal games, I'm just a little more comfortable with that extra +1.5 goals.
Philadelphia +134 over TORONTO
OT included. The Detroit Red Wings got buried 6-1 in Boston last night. Detroit went into Toronto on Tuesday and the Maple Leafs hung on for dear life in a 3-2 win. The Vancouver Canucks went into Los Angeles and Anaheim last week in back-to-back games and emerged 2-0 against that pair. The Maple Leafs went into Los Angeles and Anaheim last week in back-to-back games and went 0-2 while getting buried in Anaheim. While we have nothing but accolades to throw Toronto?s way and the direction in which they are going, they are a fragile team right now with young players on their heels. This time of year is when the stakes get higher and Toronto is loaded with players that do not want to make a mistake that ends up costing them a game. The aggressiveness that the Leafs played with for the first four months of the season is just not prevalent anymore. Very few Maple Leafs have experienced this type of pressure at this time of the year and it?s showing. Toronto has four wins over its last 13 games. Those victories occurred against the Islanders, Winnipeg, Carolina and Detroit. The Leafs have 11 wins in 34 games against top-16 competition and that?s when they were playing great. Right now, the Maple Leafs look like a tired and somewhat scared team while Philadelphia is coming on strong.
Philly has picked up seven out of a possible eight points over its last four games. The only point they missed over that stretch was when they went into Washington last Saturday and lost in OT. Philadelphia?s last three losses have been to Washington twice and Pittsburgh once. The Flyers are coming off a dominant 6-3 victory in Buffalo on Tuesday to pull within three points of that last Wild Card spot. The Flyers are two points behind the Maple Leafs so a win here and they only need to leapfrog over one more team. If we?re playing value, the Flyers must be bet here. If we?re playing the team in better form with momentum, the Flyers must be bet here. Thus, the conclusion is a no brainer. The Flyers must be bet here.
Montreal +102 over CALGARY
OT included. The Canadiens have their swag back while Claude Julien has them playing his winning brand of hockey. Montreal has reeled off six in a row and it?s getting better with each passing victory. Montreal is not only winning but they are shooting up the charts in puck possession numbers. The Habs have outshot their last four opponents while cutting way down on shots allowed. Montreal is now 2-0 on this curremnt road trip after dominating both the Rangers in New York and the Canucks in Vancouver. They?ll now face the hottest team in the NHL and there is no question that Montreal cannot wait for this challenge. The Canadiens also have a significant edge in goal.
You may recall that we were the first to point out the ?fade teams? coming off their bye week angle? and it?s not something we just happened to pull at of our hats. As an observer of this sport and paying close attention to situations, we noticed that teams? coming off layoffs of more than three days were usually flat. Times that by two and we saw an opportunity that worked out but it doesn?t mean we have to wait until next year to attack that angle again. Coming off their bye against Arizona on February 13th, the Flames lost 5-0. Calgary would subsequently go on a tear by winning eight of its next nine games, which was capped off by its easy 5-2 victory over the Islanders last Sunday. It?s now four days later and the Flames have to go through a lengthy layoff by NHL standards for the second time this month and this is not Arizona. The Flames are a strong team whose stock is high but they are in a horrible situational spot against a hot Carey Price and it?s not likely going to work out in Calgary?s favor.
"RAYMOND IS FEELING THE MAD" me too!
