Thursday 2 cents

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Not the hottest way to hop back into the forum yesterday.
Angels saved my bacon.
Was:
3-6 -1.65

Is:

Rangers(Santos)@Braves(Hampton)
-Santos is an X-factor
-Rangers been hitting lefties lately (.284 past 10) after struggling much of the year (.255, vs .276 R)
-Braves bats also not slouching lately (.297R,.309L past 10)
-I watched Hampton's last start, vs Mets and Seo, and he looked pretty grim; the strike zone was a mystery to him, despite the line of 4 BBs (2K) in 6 IP; leadoff man reached base, for the Mets, in each of the first 5 innings
-Kulpa may give each starter a few extra calls, which may or may not save Hampton--same situation for him last game, ump-wise; but, he (Ham) was facing a strong performance by Seo, which is why Santos is the big X-factor...would be nice to know that he could give them a solid 5
-gold glover Andruw Jones did not play at all yesterday (Bragg in center), and only pinch-hit the previous game ("only"...he smoked a game-winning HR)
Leans:
Total is a bitch (11) with Santos (and Hampton, for that matter) being such an X-factor. Turner Field isn't the greatest Over ballpark. Kulpa is under if anything. Day game after a night game. Hmmm...maybe the Under don't look so bad...
...still...
I was thinkin' the Rangers may have a chance to grab the final game of this series...surely for the price.
#'s crunched:
P.OPS:Rangers:768, Braves:822
PITCH:Rangers:67(X), Braves:72
I'm giving the Rangers a (slightly generous) 40-60 here.
Price: Rangers +175 (PV +3...not enough for me...+185 at BetCom)
Play: PASS
May try the under, last-minutish, if I so get the itch.
Rain anyone?

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Devil Rays(Brazelton)@Cubs(Clements)
Sammygate may pass quickly.
-Neither club smokin' the ball lately (D'Rays .245, Cubs .215 past 10 vs R)
-Brazelton may develop into something good, but D'Rays are going easy on him right now (averaging less than 6 IP/start)
; since his first start, 1st Tigers, he hasn't had much of a break, facing Twins, Jays, Rangers, and Angels(2); .225 opponents BA
-D'Rays bullpen solid (as BP's go)
-Clement has an even lower opponent BA (.207), but he has been getting rocked, 4 out of his past 6 with 5 er's or more--the other start was 2, vs Pirates; is this guy just not a very smart pitcher?...his BB-K ain't that bad (23-49), but the 4.99 era shows he's not pitching so great with runners on, per se; still, this guy is capable of putting up some serious zeros
Don't like this one much
#'s crunched:
P.OPS: D'Rays:715, Cubs:731
PITCH: D'Rays:71, Cubs:77
Cubs -200 is a joke.
Myself, I can't play TBay here.
PASS

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Indians(Sabathia)@Rockies(Jennings)
-Rockies still, despite yesterday, smoking lefties (.322 past 10, .320 year)
-Injuns .244 past, .246 year vs R
-Sabathia didn't appear affected by his bad ankle during his last start, if the Chisox are any test; Sab's #'s on the year are great, and he's consistent (only 1 of 11 starts allowing more than 3 er's, and that was 4); averaging close to 7IP/start, was short (5) last time probably due to precaution (ankle)
-Injuns BP stinks, but couldn't grace me with even 1 garbage Rockies run yesterday, through 4 innings of work (2-1 final)
-Rockies BP not much better
-ump Dale Scott not a factor, in my opinion
#'s crunched:
P.OPS:Indians:704, Rockies:860
PITCH:Indians:79, Rockies:69
I still think the Rockies are properly favoured here, despite going against Sabathia, I get about Rockies 58-42
Price: Rockies -135 (PV even)
PASS

Tempting under here for me again. 11 sucks at Coors Field, though, w/juice. Jennings struggling a little this year, too. Have to wait for the itch...can't do it right now.

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No matter how we tried, everyone was in peace of mind

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Brewers(Kinney)@Mets(Trachsel)-GAME 1
-yesterday, for this non-event, I liked the Brewers, small (but not at +115) and the under, which I tried.
-1st game of two. These players know it will be a long afternoon/night...I hope that doesn't may them too complacent on the defense.
-Total is off elsewhere, or at 7.5 (w/juice), so I'm trying the 8 I can get at -125...cheaper than yesterday's -130.
PLAY:
under 8 -+- 1.25/1

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Tigers(Bernero)@Padres(Eaton)
-why on earth Yahoo's biography claims Bernero as one of the Tigers to pitching prospects, I'll never know; consistently a B or c grade pitcher, this guy will never become a monster; several mid-range or (even) crappy pitchers have stoned the Yankees lately, so his last game may be an abberation (a la Garland's return to earth yesterday); brought his era down to 5.67 (Chisox twice, DRays twice, Indians among those faced in 11 starts)
-Eaton is the better prospect here, though he's struggled in his past 3, since returning from the DL, ballooning era from 3.73 to 5.02 over that time (Brewers@DBacks(2)); former Philly !st round pick ('96) had Tommy John surgery late 2001, has looked pretty good since; had a 12 K game vs Cubs earlier this year
-Padres .297 last 10 vs R
-Tigers have better BP
#'s crunched:
P.OPS: Tigers: 613, Padres: 734
PITCH: Tigers: 69, Padres: 71
I like the Padres to win the series with a W here, Pads 64-36
Price: Padres -135 (PV +6)
PLAY:
Padres -+- 2.7/2

Runline looks delicious, at +160
PLAY:
Padres -1.5 -+- 1/1.6

Total is touch to play over at Qualcomm, though it snuck over yesterday at 5-3 Pads. Tim Tshida works for any Over players. Me, I'm hoping for a stronger Eaton game than that.

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Brewers(Sheets)@Mets(Glavine)-GAME 2
-using the Force tells me to play under
-side is a bitch here, for me (using the Force), so I think I'll wait to see what happens in game 1 (like rain, maybe)

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But I would not feel so all alone....

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Mariners(Pineiro)@Phillies(Duckworth)
-M's bats better vs lefties, but still a very solid .291 last 10, .278 year vs R
-Phillies .247 both, vs R
-Pineiro surprisingly had more success on the road lately, including the brilliant complete game shutout @ the Metrodome last time out (May30th); only 6 HR allowed in 72.1 IP, era back under 4, and opposing BA of .220
-Duckworth had his moments last year, but has not looked sharp this year, since he making his first start April 20th after a season-opening stint on the DL; he may round into form, but his IP's/start have been way down, completing 6 full innings just once in 7 starts
-Tim Timmons was an under ump a few years back, but appears to have gotten bored with that, statistically anyway; not a factor in my books
#'s crunched:
P.OPS: M's: 798, Phillies: 747
PITCH: M's: 78, Phillies: 71
I like the Mariners to sweep. Plain and simple. M's 60-40.
Price: Mariners -120 (PV +5...better price some places)
PLAY:
Mariners -+- 1.2/1

Total looks over if anything, but Pineiro may do a number again, especially vs this lineup. Both clubs have decent pens, so the garbage run that killed me yesterday may not come today. Sticking to the side, here.

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Angels(Lackey)@Expos(Vazquez)
-Angels .320 last 10 vs R (.282 year)
-Expos .211 last 10 vs R (.244 year)
-Lackey may be famous in Anaheim, but he doesn't impress me: 6.15 era, .218 opponents BA, Angels have lost 7 of his 12 starts, with really only 4 of the starts being quality...2 of the past 4, mind you, with some crappy defense behind him in a 3rd, @Fenway (TBay and NYY the quality...what was I saying about mid-range to crappy pitchers stoning the Yanks lately?)
-Vazquez is a monster, despite being roughed up at Veterens Stadium his last time out: 17 BB, 86 K in 75 IP, opponents hitting .218
-Angels outhomered Expos 7-1 yesterday, 6-1 in the 1st game
-Both clubs with good pens, but closer Percival still out...just in case they actually have a close game here
#'s crunched:
P.OPS: Angels: 792, Expos: 704
PITCH: Angels: 72, Expos: 86
Leaning towards the Expos bouncing back to take one; I don't trust Lackey, and Vazquez is capable of quieting this Angels surge. Expos 57-43
Price: Expos -125 (PV +1...negligable)

Expos runline is tempting, at +165, but I'm passing (need 38% and I can't give more than 40-42)

Ump Schrieber is for over players, if anything, and Hiram Botham may be also, but Vazquez on one side, and a slumping Expos lineup on the other, makes this tough (so does the 9.5 for a Vazquez game...Angels do have a solid pen to backup Lackey, so I was thinking under when I saw 9.5...then I remembered where it was being played, the ump in question, and the 13 HR's the Angels hit in the first 2 games.

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Now the time has come at last to crush
the motif of the rose.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Bosox(Burkett)@Pirates(Suppan)
-Bosox .329 last 10 vs R (.295 year)
-Pirates .270 last 10 vs R (.251 year, .248 home)
-Burkett not impressive, overall, but was pretty solid for 3 straight before being Blue-Jayd to death in his last
-Suppan, as anticipated, has returned to earth after his phenomenal start to the season; era finally over 4, and it should be that way by season's end
-Burkett has had succes vs Pirates in his career, while Suppan has little success vs Sox current players
-Neither pen impressive
-Phil Cuzzi, ump, doesn't do much for me (even/under assessment here, but not for me with this matchup)
#'s crunched:
P.OPS: Bosox: 848, Pirates: 690
PITCH: Bosox: 68, Pirates: 69
I like the Bosox to continue rolling here...price seems cheap.
Bosox 62-38
Price: Bosox -120 (PV +7)
PLAY:
Bosox -+- 2.4/2

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A's(Lilly)@Marlins(Willis)
-almost hit the fish yesterday...came back to tie it up at 5, late, but decent bullpen edge for A's helped any backers breath a sigh of relief
-A's only .233 last 10 vs L, while Marlins .333 past 10 vs L
-A's .247 year, Marlins .281, vs L
-I believe in Lilly, but he has not been consistent this year; team has lost 6 of his 11 start (he's 3-1); always has a good whip, opponents BA, and BB-K, but he seems to be pulling a Matt Clement this year (see above), as preventing runs has not been his speciality (4.21 era); on a downswing now, if anything, and his competition hasn't exactly been frightening (last 5 were Royals(2),Indians,Tigers, and Chisox)
-Willis has been great his past 2, both vs Reds, for a combined 15IP/11H/1R/4BB/17K line (0 HR); 12 BB, 34 K in 29 IP this year; only 21, we may be looking at something hot coming up here...price will be cheap on him for a while, if he is for real
#'s crunched:
P.OPS: A's: 731, Marlins: 794
PITCH: A's: 77, Marlins: 78
I have to stick with Marlins again here, despite yesterday...that was Tim Hudson, after all. Marlins 59-41
Price: Marlins -105 (PV +7)
PLAY:
Marlins -+- 2.1/2

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Or is it just a thorn between my eyes

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Yankees(Contreras)@Reds(Graves)
-Yanks bats slumbering; only Giambi really hitting the ball in the air, if you knowhatimean, and Graves a ground ball pitcher
-Contreras looked great in his first start, but that was against the Tigers, at Comerica Park; this guy's like 60, isn't he? (31 actually...old for a rookie in the Bigs)
-Reds bats status quo lately; seems they only score if they hit home runs; Griffey not 100% (seems status quo, there)
-Dreckman a good ump for unders (8-4 this year, 3-0 last, with fairly high strike % overall)
#'s crunched:
P.OPS: Yankees: 808, Reds: 766
PITCH: Yanks: 74, Reds: 73
Yanks are favoured by too much here, as the Reds try to sweep them. If Contreras can keep them in the park (which I hope), then Yanks may take some measure of revenge.
Go Graves Go.
PLAY:
under 10.5 (Greek-10 most places) -105
1.05/1

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Orioles(Daal)@Astros(Oswalt)
-both clubs hitting opposing arm lately: O's .339 last 10 vs R, Astros .372 last 10 vs L
-Daal is tough to call; the only thing you can count on is his inconsistency; no BB's last 3 starts (21 IP vs Rangers(2) and TBay); has been hit hard by several Astros current players (1-7, 6.59 era vs Astros, .317 opposing BA)
-Oswalt looked great returning from injury, in his last, 7 shutout innings, 5 hits, 0 BB and 8 K at Wrigley; 1st time facing O's; has potential to dominate them, despite their recent hot bats
#'s crunched:
P.OPS: Orioles: 761, Astros: 760
PITCH: O's: 67, Astros: 84
I like the Astros again, 3rd straight, but I knew it would be priced outta this world (-210). I like Astros big, 68-32
Price: -210 (PV even)
PASS

Didn't wanna pay the price the last 2, either...
Price: Astros -1.5 -110 (PV +3 at 56%, which may be generous)
PASSING unless it comes down to +100, which is quite possible.

Passing on the total due to Daal's inconsistency and DiMuro (slight overage) behind HP, otherwise I lean under.

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Blue Jays(Hendrickson)@Cardinals(Williams)
-Jays face ex-teammate for 1st time
-Hendrickson sucks...nuff said (6'9" though!)
-Woody has been consistently solid all year: .219 era, .216 opposing BA, 4 HR in 78 IP, with BB-K of 14-57
-neither team struggling to produce runs
#'s crunched:
P.OPS: Jays: 835, Cards: 823
PITCH: Jays: 66, Cards: 83
Big # on the Cards to win, 67-33
Price: Cards -175 (PV +3...not enough for me, especially being so pricey)
PASS

Price: Cards -1.5 +110 (PV +4 at 52%...Cards BP ain't the best, and closer Isringhausen was still out, last I checked; probably won't be a one-run game, as Jays pen probably won't help an already weak starter; not enough value for me here)
PASS

Wally Bell, behind HP, is a potential under play, especially in a Woody game, but the offenses are too strong, and the bullpens are too weak. PASS for me.

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Oh let the sun beat down upon my face,
stars fill my dreams

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Chisox(Wright)@D'Backs(Dessens)
-Chisox bats perpetually cold (.224 last 10 vs R, .231 year)
-D'Backs .294 vs R last 10, .268 year, .289 at home
-Wright is trash and slumping
-Dessens is trash and slumping worse
-HP ump Guccione not a factor from where I fall
#'s crunched:
-Dessens has been seen, and hit, by current Chisox players
P.OPS: Chisox: 690, D'Backs: 755
PITCH: Chisox: 65, D'Backs: 67
I can only give a slight edge to the D'Backs here, 58-42 tops.
Price: D'Backs -115 (PV +4)
PASSIN' BROWN

Total looks better, what with some pitching problems for the D'Backs (long relievers movin' in to fill starters roles, and Mantei on the shelf). Offenses aren't explosive, but pitching matchup is brutal.
PLAY:
over 9.5 -120
1.2/1

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Royals(May)@Dodgers(Brown)
-DODGERS BROWN
#'s crunched:
P.OPS: Royals: 739, Dodgers: 770 (greatly factors vs lefties)
PITCH: KC: 69, LA: 92
Dodgers have the edge in every aspect of this contest.
I rarely approach 80, nevermind the 70's, but
Dodgers 78-22
Price: Dodgers -250 (PV +6...too low for me at this price)
PASS

Price: Dodgers -1.5 -110 (glad I waited...was -120 earlier)
I must to be giving at least a 60%, PV +7
PLAY:
Dodgers -1.5 -+- 3.3/3

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Twins(Lohse)@Giants(Foppert)
-Twins just .243 last vs R, while .270 year
-Giants .264 last 10, .265 year, vs R
-Lohse has been great this year, but remains affordable
-Foppert not much run support, but has performed well; beat Rockies 2-1 last time out (Pac Bell)
-Twins solid BP advantage
#'s crunched:
P.OPS: Twins: 767, Giants: 770
PITCH: Twins: 84, Giants: 75
I like the Twins here; threat of Padres looming no distraction; good pitching edge without losing much, if anything, on offense; Giants not the best home record at 18-12 (Twins 17-11 on the road); Twins 56-44
Price: Twins +105 (PV +7)
PLAY:
Twins
1/1.05

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Is there anybody...out there

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Last Word: (pitchers must go)

(G1)Brewers@Mets under 8 1.25/1
Padres 2.7/2
Padres -1.5 1/1.6
Mariners 1.2/1
Bosox 2.4/2
Marlins 2.1/2
Yanks@Reds under 10.5 1.05/1
Chisox@D'Backs over 9.5 1.2/1
Dodgers -1.5 3.3/3
Twins 1/1.05


Good Fortune To Your Free Will

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And in the end, the love you take
is equal to the love you make