will edit-in two short writeups a little later on tonight. really feel good about both plays. not gonna play a whole lot of games on thursday, because i feel these 2 are the best on the board without question. we'll see how they play out.
3.0 units......tulsa (+2) over dayton
1.5 units......cincinnati (-1.5) over gonzaga
(ADDED) 1 unit....san diego (+7) over stanford
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tulsa over dayton........really like this tulsa team to do some damage in the tourney this year. they should make it out of the first weekend before they likely bow out to kentucky in the sweet sixteen...hurricane just have everything you need to pull upsets in the tourney as a low seed...theyve got great guards (a necessity for winning in march), they shoot the 3 well, and they are a good free throw shootin team. their top 3 players (swanson, johnson, and parker) are all outstanding free throw shooters- at 87%, 75%, and 85% respectively. tulsa is also a hot team, having won 10 of their last 11 games coming into the tourney. theyve also been here before, and have a history of pulling upsets, with the most recent one being last year in the first round against marquette. great senior leadership, a hot team, and they shoot the ball well from all areas. people also forget this was a top 25 team earlier in the season, ranked as high as 18th i believe. so its not like they came out of nowhere. this team is very talented- and should win their first two games of the tourney this weekend
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cincinnati over gonzaga......this game could be a carbon copy of the cincy/oregon game from earlier this season. i backed the bearcats in that spot, so i feel like i gotta back em here. obviously, cincy just lacks the firepower that theyve had in years past. but this is a good team in the right spot- and theyre in a great spot here. they cats drew a west coast team that they will be super physical with. oregon looked clueless vs huggins and the cats' man-to-man defense. i expect gonzaga to really struggle with cincy's "physicalness" as well. the bearcats struggle against teams that slow the tempo and can force them to run half court sets. gonzaga is not that type of team. zags have a tendency to allow teams to get a lot of clean looks. turiaf is about the only zags player that i think can match cincy on the boards and in the post. i dont expect cincy to blow gonzaga out by any means. bearcats dont blow anyone out. but i just feel there is a huge difference in style of play, and thats where cincy has a huge advantage. im gonna be interested to see how the zags respond when they get popped in the mouth by the cats. zags struggle with physical teams- and i dont think this is a good draw for them. bearcats have been money burners in the past in the role of the favorite in the ncaa tourney , but even though theyre a -1.5 chalk, this is a different role for the cats. not many people expect them to win, and there is no pressure on cincy. they might as well be the underdog.
3.0 units......tulsa (+2) over dayton
1.5 units......cincinnati (-1.5) over gonzaga
(ADDED) 1 unit....san diego (+7) over stanford
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tulsa over dayton........really like this tulsa team to do some damage in the tourney this year. they should make it out of the first weekend before they likely bow out to kentucky in the sweet sixteen...hurricane just have everything you need to pull upsets in the tourney as a low seed...theyve got great guards (a necessity for winning in march), they shoot the 3 well, and they are a good free throw shootin team. their top 3 players (swanson, johnson, and parker) are all outstanding free throw shooters- at 87%, 75%, and 85% respectively. tulsa is also a hot team, having won 10 of their last 11 games coming into the tourney. theyve also been here before, and have a history of pulling upsets, with the most recent one being last year in the first round against marquette. great senior leadership, a hot team, and they shoot the ball well from all areas. people also forget this was a top 25 team earlier in the season, ranked as high as 18th i believe. so its not like they came out of nowhere. this team is very talented- and should win their first two games of the tourney this weekend
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cincinnati over gonzaga......this game could be a carbon copy of the cincy/oregon game from earlier this season. i backed the bearcats in that spot, so i feel like i gotta back em here. obviously, cincy just lacks the firepower that theyve had in years past. but this is a good team in the right spot- and theyre in a great spot here. they cats drew a west coast team that they will be super physical with. oregon looked clueless vs huggins and the cats' man-to-man defense. i expect gonzaga to really struggle with cincy's "physicalness" as well. the bearcats struggle against teams that slow the tempo and can force them to run half court sets. gonzaga is not that type of team. zags have a tendency to allow teams to get a lot of clean looks. turiaf is about the only zags player that i think can match cincy on the boards and in the post. i dont expect cincy to blow gonzaga out by any means. bearcats dont blow anyone out. but i just feel there is a huge difference in style of play, and thats where cincy has a huge advantage. im gonna be interested to see how the zags respond when they get popped in the mouth by the cats. zags struggle with physical teams- and i dont think this is a good draw for them. bearcats have been money burners in the past in the role of the favorite in the ncaa tourney , but even though theyre a -1.5 chalk, this is a different role for the cats. not many people expect them to win, and there is no pressure on cincy. they might as well be the underdog.
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