Thursday June 28th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thursday June 28th 2007

yesterday: 8-6 +3.16
June: 164-151 +2.58
ml 81-60 +1.42
rl 10-13 -9.06
totals 58-35 +28.25
parlays 15-43 -18.03

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Fla 64% (-153)+3
Ariz 58 (-135)even
Phil 61 (-151)even
Mets 66 (-176)+2 RL 50 (+121)+4
Hou 63 (-165)even
oak 57 (+115)+10
Det 58 (-191)-8 tex 42 (+180)+6
tor 56 (-114)+2
nyy 67 (-177)+3 RL 54 (-114)even
Tb 64 (-128)+7

system totals

stl@Mets un8.5 82% (+100)+32 --ump Young is even
col@Hou ov8.5 67 (+106)+18 --ump N/A


Yesterday was a major improvement on Tuesday; wasn't tough to top that freak-show. System sides improved on Tuesday's 5-10 by going 7-7; still not very good, but better; I'm hoping for at least a 6-4 today, maybe even a 7-3. Went 3-0 on totals yesterday which is what saved my bacon. I would have had a slightly better day had I avoided the parlay show?Bosox win and I woulda cleared 10 units Wednesday. That one was a shocker, as the Bosox got NOTHING off of Feierabend, who they should have destroyed. All 3 of the system totals that didn't have umpire-kills came through, making system totals 72-36 in June (66.6% winners). Just need sides to pick up.

Today's board doesn't have me very excited. A's and D'Rays are system picks, but D'Rays are playing pretty poorly right now. I'm looking at a unit play max. if I try the Rays. A's look like a better play as Blanton is on fire and Byrd is just average; Indians not playing so hot last week or two, and A's production yesterday, off Carmona and company, only makes the play seem sweeter. Marlins, D'Backs, Mets, Astros, Jays, and Yankees will all get my consideration, but there isn't much value on any of those lines; maybe a bit with the Marlins, Mets, Jays, and Yanks. The Cards-Mets total I think I'll try (under), but I'll probably pass on the other system call as Oswalt may be due for a good game. Other totals are unlikely for me, though John Hirschbeck's turn behind home plate is coming (might not be until Friday); he was 1B in Milwaukee and I have no clue where that crew is going next; probably only be able to find out near game time; I love playing unders with Hirschy going (even more than Eddings?thank-ya-now?(lad@Ariz).

Be back to post picks later.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Tampa Bay Blues

Tampa Bay Blues

Jeez...I don't know about this D'Rays temptation.

I'm only 1-2 in this series, finally getting off of the Rays and on the Chisox yesterday.

vs Danks was the Rays best shot maybe, and they lost that one (bullpen blew a slim lead).

Believe it or not, I gave the Rays a sizeable penalty for having lost the first 3 games...still get them at 64%.

Chisox OPS last 7 days is .651
D'Rays OPS last 7 days is .742

Hmmm...

I think that the Chisox have been a bit lucky to take the first three; they did trail in two of them (1st & 3rd).

Kazmir has faced the Chisox twice.
He's 2-0 with a 3.21 era vs them.

Vazquez is 3-2, 5.14 vs the D'Rays.
Faced them May 27th, at home, giving up 8 hits and 5 earned runs over 6.2 IP (D'Rays won 11-5).

I prefer the D'Rays vs a lefty.
I guess you can't have everything.
(D'Rays still an edge at the plate...edge to starter, too)

Looks like it's in play for me.
D'Rays don't get swept 4 straight here, methinks.
Not with their ace going.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

under-ump Gorman is going in Cleveland.

Tempting, with Blanton, but I don't know if Byrd can tame the suddenly explosive A's bats.

system call is actually over the 9.5 at 56%.
that's without an under-bonus for Gorman.
Makes it a pretty even proposition.

I'll stick with the A's.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm alright Jack, keep your hands off my stack

I'm alright Jack, keep your hands off my stack

PLAYS

system picks

a's +115 1.5/1.73
D'Rays -128 1.92/1.5

other picks

Marlins -153 1.22/0.8
D'Backs -135 1.08/0.8
jays -114 0.8/0.7
nyy -1.5 -114 0.68/0.6

totals

stl@Mets un8.5 +100 1.5/1.5
cardinals under 4 -110 0.78/0.72
yankees over 5 -130 0.65/0.5
chisox under 4 +105 0.6/0.63

2-teamer ("?to find I'm king of the hill?top of the heap?")
--New York (NL) ml
--new york (AL) ml
+147
1.36/2


I'd like the A's more, but Blanton hasn't done his best work during the daytime; that's for the last few years, now. I think that the Yankees can salvage the final game in their set with the O's; I also think that the Yanks bats will wake up here against a more hittable Cabrera (can forgive yesterday?Bedard is red-hot these days). Marlins and D'Rays both have the edge at the plate AND at starting pitcher; I'd be surprised if one or both don't come in. Jays might be a homer play, this time around. Still, Burnett has been pretty good, when he's actually in the rotation, and the Jays have an edge at the plate with Morneau still out (if he's back for this one then fine?can't be too sharp after being off for a week). In 'Zona, I'm expecting the Big Unit to shut down the Dodgers for at least a good 6 innings there; Johnson hasn't been out too long and he was just dominating before this setback. Shea total should be under; Mets really struggling with righties, for some reason, and Wainwright has been pretty good over the past 5 weeks, lowering his once lofty era over that time from 6.34 to it's current 4.58; Orlando has faced the Cards just once and dominated them. Mets are (very) likely winners in this one; I'm hoping for no more than a 5-2 or 5-3 type of score.

I've 'capped Friday and it looks like it might be promising; as many as 9 games could be over 60%; three of those will (likely) be 65% or higher. There should also be a couple of system totals, likely a pair of overs and a few unders. Chris Young will be pitching at the Dodgers and he is hotter than hell right now (vs Kuo); I think I'd try the Padres in that one, maybe even as high as -150 (I'd be surprised if we saw over -140, actually). Indians should kick the crap out of the D'Rays (at home, Westbrook vs Jackson), and I'll probably be looking at a runline play. Pirates (Snell vs Chico) also have a high probability, but I think that -150 would be my ceiling for that play, too. Mets (Maine) look like they might get an easy victim in this J.Durbin that the Phillies will be starting in game #1 of the doubleheader; I'm looking at a call of Mets 62 or 63%, but I think that it will be a very safe 62 or 63%, if yaknowhatimean. I'm very curious to see the line for that one; have no clue what to expect, but I'm a player at anything better than -150. Game #2 the Phillies probably take revenge with Hamels (vs Sosa or Pelfrey). If the Brewers see dog money at the Cubs (Gallardo-Hill) then I think I'll try Milwaukee; Gallardo looking like he might be the real deal and Brewers really punishing lefties this season. Angels might get there act together in Baltimore; opener is Escobar-Burres, which favours the Halos; over -150 and I'm again passing; I'll like the Angels a little more if the Yankees crush the Orioles today. Perhaps the most interesting game of the day (I love my great pitching matchups) will be the Twins at the Tigers; Santana vs Verlander; I'm hoping to see a 7.5, as opposed to a 7, as I'll likely be an under player for this one; starters rated almost identical at the moment while Twins have the edge in the bullpen; Tigers with a big edge at the plate so I'm looking at between 58-62% as a call for the Tigers; Tigers likely -125 to -140, I would think, so I'm not expecting much value on the moneyline; this under would be a lock if somehow we got Hirschbeck behind the plate for it?umpire info will be available by approximately a half-hour before gametime?I might make a smaller play and then wait to maybe punch it if the ump if favourable.

Holy cow I can Ramble On ("now's the time, the time is now").
I better stop before the game's begin already.

That's a wrap (possibly).
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

While I'm finishing my final smoke of the day (I hope), I'm curious to see what today's picks are for ROI

---------------------------------------------------------------------
return on investment breakdown for system picks
---------------------------------------------------------------------
(a's,D'Rays)
---------------------------------------------------------------------

a's 57% (+115)+10 value indicator
(I notice that the line has changed--I think it's like A's +105 now--but I'm doing these for the lines I got)

argument for game:
--A's with a decent edge at starter
--A's produced Wednesday--quite a bit--so some production off of a fairly cold Byrd is likely
--Blanton threw a solid game the last time he faced the Indians, on May 11th (at home, granted; he got the W in an 8-2 A's win)
--Blanton's era over his last 5 starts is 1.14 and he's gone at least 7 each time
--Byrd is 2-4, 5.40 era in 9 starts vs A's
--Byrd's era over his last 4 starts is 7.92 (he went 0-2, Indians went 1-3)
--opponent's hitting .323 off Byrd
--opponent's hitting .235 off Blanton

57 x 1.15 = 65.55
43 x -1....= -43
-----------------------------
..................22.55%

Great. The nice line helps.

At +105:

57 x 1.05 = 59.85
43 x -1.....= -43
------------------------------
.................16.85%

Not as much but still worthwhile.
Some games you just gotta try to get early; 'course, I'm sometimes kicking myself afterwards if the line then moves in my favour.

D'Rays ROI will likely be less...

--------------------------------------------------------------------

D'Rays 64% (-128)+7 value indicator

argument for game:
--D'Rays OPS vs R .744
--Chisox OPS vs R .682
--D'Rays OPS at home .733
--Chisox OPS on the road .667
--D'Rays OPS last 7 days .742
--Chisox OPS last 7 days .651
(if the preceeding doesn't justify an edge at the plate then I don't know what would)
--Kazmir 2-0, 3.21 era vs Chisox in 2 starts
--D'Rays have won 4 straight Kazmir starts
--Vazquez 3-2, 5.14 era vs D'Rays in 8 starts
--Chisox have lost 4 straight Vazquez starts and 9 of his last 10
--Vazquez had a 6.75 era for his last start vs D'Rays, on May 27th (5 er in 6.2 IP)

(I think I like this one even better, now, than when I wagered on it)

-128 is 78.1 cents on the dollar
64 x 0.781 = 49.984
36 x -1......= -36
---------------------------------
....................13.984%

Acceptable. Not phenomenal.
D'Rays usually play their best ball at home, so it's a bit surprising that they've dropped the first 3 to this horrible Chisox squad. I'm hoping that they'll be game for a solid showing today.

Could use these two.
Not pounding them; I'm probably looking at taking it easy for the final days of June to try and hang on to that precious plus that I've somehow acquired...June has been a write-off for me, really...without the totals I woulda been crushed this month.
Stupid flippin' parlay nonsense...I made over 10 units on parlays for May...silly me...thinking that could continue.
Take away my parlay losses and June wouldn't have been so bad.

Live and (?)Learn(?).

Probably not. Some habits die hard.

"I want to wake up in the city that never sleeps..."

See you later.
GL

:SIB