Thursday June 7th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thursday June 7th 2007

yesterday: 6-4 +4.65
June: 42-32 +3.59
ml 19-9 +3.81
rl 2-2 -2.2
totals 18-12 +5.62
parlays 3-9 -3.64
system picks 2-0 yesterday; now 90-48 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-1 yesterday; 17-9 in June

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

pitt 57% (-136)-1
hou 61 (-149)+1
Mets 52 (-104)+1
cubs 60 (-104)+9
Stl 56 (-144)-4
Ariz 51 (-119)-4
Sd 80 (-215)+11 RL 64 (+102)+14
Clev 69 (-244)-2 RL 55 (-115)+1
Tor 69 (-214)even RL 54 (-102)+3
bost 57 (-133)-1
nyy 53 (-115)-1
det 58 (-123)+2

system totals

phil@Mets un8 67% (-120)+12 --ump Hudson is even
cubs@Atl un8.5 77 (-109)+24 --ump N/A
lad@Sd un7 70 (-110)+17 --ump Fairchild is even
bost@Oak un8.5 79 (+106)+30 --ump Kulpa is even
det@Tex ov11 79 (-113)+25 --ump Dowdy is even (5-1 OVERS this year)


Looks like the losing "streak" only reached one day?sorry Evil Demons!
Perfect on the moneyline (LOOK?no runlines!...) and 2-2 on totals, hitting the biggest (and scoring 0.13 units there). 0-2 on parlays, throwing away about 1.5 units System missed the big call with a 68% on the Indians, but bagged a couple of key 65's (the two system picks?Rockies and Tigers). System sides actually only went 7-8 (there were 7 games at 54% or less?went 3-4 on those); I hit the ones I needed. System totals are slaying the man this month.

Today's board has my second 80%'er of the season (1st was a Beckett start at home; Bosox won). I want a piece, especially vs a lefty; need to decide how to play it?knew it would be expensive. Also with a couple of 69's, but no value at current lines. Cubs are a system pick; good chance to win with this matchup (Hill-James), though James has been fairly good lately (got James rated at a 79 coming into this one; Hill at an 84; edge to Braves bullpen, but it's been used quite heavily for the past couple of days); edge goes to Cubs bats, here, with Chipper still out. No other really attractive sides but the Tigers might be worth a shot in that slugfest.

Speaking of totals, I've got what I'm pretty sure is my highest rated OVER play of the season, for the game in Texas. Rangers bats should reawaken here, facing the fairly weak Maroth, and Loe is about the lowest rated starter there currently is (have him at 70; Maroth coming in at 73). I'm WAY on this one. Other totals I'm still considering.

Be back in a bit to post whatever turns my crank.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Like I said...I've got to get a piece...

Question is how to play it.

Return On Investment breakdown
-------------------------------------------------
Padres 80% (-215)+11
-215 pays 46.5 cents on the dollar

80 x 0.465 = 37.2
20 x -1......= -20
-----------------------------
..................17.2% ROI

That's beautiful for such a high %, and such a high line.

-----------------------------------------------------
Padres -1.5 64% (+102)+14
+102 is, obviously, 1.02 on the dollar

64 x 1.02 = 65.28
36 x -1.....= -36
-----------------------------
..................29.28% ROI

Knew it would be higher because of the better line and the higher Value Indicator.
------------------------------------------------------------
A 70% increase in ROI with the runline.
(12.08/17.2%)

An 80% increase in risk (20% risk with ml, 36% with rl)
(16/20%)

It's hard not to like the moneyline, here, despite the high price tag.
I wish there was something worth parlaying it with; Indians and Blue Jays are just WAY too expensive.

As for this Padres play...I'm thinking I might split up my bets between the moneyline and runline, just to improve my pay-off.
I'm also (beyond) tempted by the Dodgers under 3 runs, currently at -140.
They've scored 2 through the first two games, and now they have to face the likes of Jake Peavy.
Attractive but costly for a team total.

Final words:

Padres OPS vs L .759
Dodgers OPS vs R .691

Kuo era vs Padres 27.00 (in very limited, grant you)
Kuo 2007 era 7.71 (opponent's hitting .367)
Peavy era vs Dodgers 2.31 (he's 7-1 in 14 vs)
Peavy 2007 era 1.68 (only 1 HR, 92 K, in 80.1 IP)

Hendrix Bless this matchup!

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

some team totals I'm looking at

some team totals I'm looking at

(with relative system numbers)

Nats u4 -135 (-12)
Rockies u4 -110 (-8)
Braves u4 -115 (-15)
giants u4 -125 (-10)
D'Backs u4 +100 (-10)
dodgers u3 -140 (-26)
royals u4 -115 (-7)
t'bay u4 -125 (-9)
Jays ov5.5 +100 (+5)
A's u4 -110 (-13)
nyy ov5 -125 (+2)
tigers ov5.5 -125 (+16)
rangers ov5.5 +115 (+11)

Numbers in parenthesis is bats relative to opposing pitching.
+ is, obviously (I hope), for overs.
- is for unders.

Obviously I can't play all of these.
In some cases there are better options on game totals, or even the moneyline.

Dodgers and Braves look like the best unders.
Braves under (at -115) likely means a Cubs win, so the Cubs, now at -103, looks like the better move there.

Tigers and Rangers both with a good chance to score 6, today, but the game total is more attractive, I think, simply because BOTH teams with a good chance to produce.
Umpire should be a non-factor.
I think the Tigers would be the better team total (+16 to the Rangers +11, shown above) of the two, but why lay -125 there when I can try the moneyline at -130. Rangers over 5.5 becomes a bad play if I'm thinking about the Tigers moneyline.

Stay Tuned.

:weed:

:142smilie

:lol2

:weed:

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Coors

at Coors

Fogg was pretty sharp in his last 3 games before going on the DL (vs Giants and 'Zona).
Still...just 3-6 vs Astros (era 6.09).
1-5, era of 4.53 on the season (era 5.59 at home).

What's more interesting about this game is Oswalt's numbers vs Rockies:
5-1 in 6 starts (era 1.73).
A few Rockies regulars with decent numbers off of Oswalt (Matsui, Helton, Atkins and Hawpe...that is quite a few, isn't it?), but check out a further breakdown...his numbers at Coors:
2-0 in 2 starts (era 1.93).
He's coming off a solid performance vs the Cards, but Astros are 0-4 in Oswalt's past 4 starts (he's 0-2); Astros have scored 8 runs for him, in those 4.
Astros scored 7 yesterday, following up a 4-spot, so they should get enough to cover Oswalt's game.

That's what my money thinks.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Shea

at Shea

I can't see the Mets dropping 3 straight to the Phillies, here; especially not against a lefty (OPS vs L .864...Phils vs R .810).
Hamels is 1-0 in 2 vs the Mets (era 1.29).
4 days rest he threw 97 in a complete game win over the Giants (5-2 final).
Still...he can be hit; hasn't given up LESS than 2 earned runs in 8 straight games...5 of them were OVER 2 runs allowed.
11 HR surrendured in 83.2 IP; 3 over his past 2 starts.

Maine has been solid all season, but has seen his era go UP for 6 consecutive starts (still a solid 2.81).
3-0 in 4 starts vs Philly, with a stinker coming on April 9th where he couldn't find the strike zone (no decision, Mets won 11-5).
He'll give the Mets a fair shot here.

Can't resist the price.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

at Busch

at Busch

Wainwright has LOWERED his era for his past 3 starts, looking pretty good in the process.
Might be worth a shot against the Reds, who he's never started against.

Lohse is 0-2 in 3 vs the Cards (era 5.29).
0-1, era of 9.00 for his only career Busch start.
Did throw a beauty against Pitt 2 starts ago (BIG deal! ).
2-7 on the year and 1-5 on the road.
Sounds like fade material.

Price is high but Cards have won 3 straight, now, and look primed for the sweep.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Here's a tempting over...

Here's a tempting over...

Odalis Perez may be back to his crappy ways, after a few decent games; in his past 2, since last facing Cleveland, he's surrendured 17 hits in 10.2 IP.
Never lost to the Indians (1-0 in 4, era 3.60).
(0-0, 3.75 in 2 starts at Jacob's)

Since his complete game, 2-0 victory over Santana and the Twins, Carmona has surrendured 28 hits over his past 19 IP (3 starts).
Two were against the Tigers (excusable) but the other was against these Royals.

Was going to grab a piece of the runline.

Over might be a better play.

(pause 3 seconds)

I just checked out the umpire.
Tim Tschida.
Forget the over; he's a bit of an under-ump.

I didn't like Carmona to start the season.
Not sure if I like him now.
(Liked him after his Santana games).

I'm already committing a unit to them for a parlay; I think I'll take a pass on the runline.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

...phew...that was close...

:com: I almost put money on the Yankees:scared :com:

I've tried those losers enough recently.

Contreras hasn't allowed an HR for his past 6 starts.
He's 2-2, 2.20 era vs the Yankees.

Mussina beaten like an animal in 3 of his past 4.
Yanks have lost 6 of his 8 starts, including the past 4.
He's 15-16, 4.72 era vs the Chisox.
He's 8-9, 4.35 at US Cellular Field; that includes his brutal May 16th start, where he gave up 8 hits and 5 earned runs (2 HR) to the Pale Hose.
Has given up 6 HR over his past 4 starts.

What was I thinking?!?:com: :scared :com:

:weed:
:00hour
:weed:
:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I can't bring myself to play the Tigers, either, the way the line has now gone up.
Maroth has been garbage for 3 straight (really most of the year...just disguised it...) and Tigers have dropped all 3.
Tigers bullpen is also a joke right now; small edge to Rangers pen.

Loe is garbage, too.

Smart play is (was) the over.

:SIB

 

[thepoolguy]

If you can, parlay SD with Federer and Nadal. Comes close to even $. (50 wins 43)

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...

New car, caviar, four-star daydream...

PLAYS

system picks

cubs -103 2.06/2
Padres -215 6.45/3
Padres -1.5 +102 3/3.06

other picks

astros -140 2.8/2
Mets -104 1.04/1
Cards -144 1.44/1
Jays -1.5 -102 1.02/1

totals

phil@Mets un8 -120 1.2/1
cubs@Atl un8.5 -110 0.78/0.72
sf@Ariz un8 +100 0.75/0.75
dodgers under 3 -140 2.1/1.5
bost@Oak un8.5 +106 1/1.06
det@Tex ov11 -113 4.52/4

2-teamer
--Padres ml
--Indians ml
+107
0.93/1

2-teamer
--Padres ml
--Blue Jays ml
+115
0.87/1


Guess who I want to see shine tonight?!
I'd like to hit it even harder, but yesterday wasn't THAT great, especially considering my Senators Series Bonanza finally got erased from my Pending Plays List. Several others, today, that I like to varrying degrees, so my money finds a home all over the place. Grab that over 11 now, if you still can?it's becoming very expensive?might hit 12 by game time. Other choices I've tried to explain. Some are possibly inexplicable.

That's a wrap from here.
?Think I'll buy me a football team.

:SIB

 

[BadAngel]

GL EXTRA. I hope Hous hangs on for us.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

:00hour :00hour :00hour

I DON'T FREAKING BELIEVE IT!

:00hour :00hour :00hour


Now I have to go back and edit my prepared post.
Had a MAJOR negative erased by the incredible comeback at Petco.

Unreal!

:00hour :00hour :00hour

:SIB