Thursday May 31st

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thursday May 31st 2007

yesterday: 8-3 +10.96
May: 179-141 +52.28
ml 105-64 +37.65
rl 10-11 -0.97
totals 45-38 +4.78
parlays 19-28 +10.82
system picks 4-0 yesterday; now 81-42 overall; 51-22 in May (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

sd 58% (-125)+2
lad 59 (-134)+1
Mets 59 (-136)+1
cin 62 (-125)+6
Mil 62 (-143)+3
Col 63 (-143)+4
det 55 (+123)+10
Tor 68 (-155)+7 RL 53 (+141)+11
Seat 61 (-138)+3
Laa 67 (-210)-1 RL 52 (+105)+3

system totals

sf@Mets un8 84% (-112)+31 --Holbrook is a definate OVER-ump; pass here
cin@Hou ov8.5 72 (-130)+15 --Diaz is a good UNDER-ump; pass here
fla@Mil ov9.5 68 (-105)+16 --ump N/A
det@Clev ov8.5 66 (-108)+14 --ump N/A


Yesterday was totally cool; sweet collosal 2-day winning streak happening.
Nothing outstanding on today's board, so I'll finish May quietly and hope to stay +50 units for the month.

System sides went 10-5 yesterday, now 244-165 for May (59.6% winners?I guess 60% for the month is gonna be tough?need like an 8-2 today).
Hit the big ones again, which is what I need most.
(sweet system calls on marlins & D'Rays, also).

System totals even went 4-0 yesterday, now 57-40 for May (58.7% winners).
Truth of the matter is that I was just too wasted after making my side plays to do any more betting; woulda made a little more cash if I'd tackled the totals.
Oh well?I'll take back-to-back days of +10 units anytime.

Be back to post plays shortly.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

in Colorado

in Colorado

Cook's numbers at home are pretty bad:
2-1, 5.70 era, 12 BB to only 11 K and opponent's batting .289
Still, only 1 HR allowed at home, in 30 IP.
Threw a complete game (111 pitches) in his last, at SF, 5 days ago (Rocks win 6-1).

Cards OPS vs R .693.

Thompson hasn't been very impressive as a starter, with opponent's currently hitting .290 against him.
His best start was May 8th, at home to these Rockies.
Since then he's had 3 mediocre starts, but has gone 2-1 due to good bullpen work behind him, and some decent run-support.
I'm not crazy about his chances of making it past 6 here; Cards pen still fine, though it's been taxed pretty heavily in this series, including 4 innings of work yesterday, between 4 relievers.

Rockies OPS vs R .731.

Rockies with the edge at the plate, and the edge at starter.
Cards have a reasonable bullpen edge.
(They'll need it if they have any hope here)
Cards don't play so well away from home, and Rockies play their best ball at home.

63% seems like a reasonable call for this game, and I get a bit of value at the curent line (-143), but not enough to get me to play 'em here.

Yesterday's result scares me off this one.

Spectator.

:SIB

 

[brooksie]

Ex...

You're on fire!! Great job - your posts are always informative and interesting - thanks!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I appreciate the words, brooksie.

Thank You Very Much.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

updated system statistics

updated system statistics

RESULTS (W-L)

???.?full?..April??..May??.June??July???August?..Sept?..October
Total?..203-165..203-165...244-165
51??...17-15?.17-15??14-13
52??...13-13?.13-13??15-10
53??...16-16?.16-16??15-10
54??...14-8?...14-8??..14-16
55??...9-12??9-12??.15-13
56??...17-4??17-4??.12-12
57??...8-6??...8-6??..20-11
58??...8-11??.8-11??10-5
59??...11-11..11-11?...14-8
60??...12-9??12-9??.11-12
61??...10-8??10-8??.15-8
62??...10-8??10-8??.9-9
63??...13-9??13-9??.12-7
64??...7-10??7-10??.11-6
65??...10-4??10-4??.10-9
66??...9-5??...9-5??..10-5
67??...6-2??...6-2??..7-5
68??...5-4??...5-4??..4-1
69??...1-2??...1-2??..3-2
70??...2-2??...2-2??..3-1
71??...1-2??...1-2??..5-0
72??...1-1??...1-1??..4-1
73??...1-1??...1-1??..4-0
74??...2-1??...2-1??..3-0
75??...0-1??...0-1??..1-1
76??...0-0??...0-0??..1-0
77
78??...0-0??...0-0??..1-0
79
80??...0-0--------0-0??..1-0
totals?..45-53?..45-53??57-40
(posted system totals)

MADJACK'S POSTINGS
overall W-L122-111..122-111..
overall +/-?-4.21??-4.21?.
ml W-L?.80-45??.80-45?..
ml +/-??+12.54?.+12.54?..
rl W-L??.9-10??..9-10?..
rl +/-??..-1.8???.-1.8?..
totals W-L...25-22?..25-22?..
totals +/-?.-5.2??...-5.2?..
parlays W-L..8-34??8-34?..
parlays +/-?-9.75?...-9.75?..
system sides..30-20?..30-20?..


That's up to date.
With about 1/3 of the season done, I've got a reasonable sample to assess results.

I'm very pleased with how May went.

As long as I'm using up-to-date numbers, I think things should continue nicely.

I'll be doing some bullpen (and other) re-assessments for this month's end, so hopefully things will stay rockin'.

I'd still like to tackle a book on the subject;
I think baseball presents the best sports-betting oppotunity of all the major sports;
there are just so many scenarios offered (2430 games, after all!);
this could be a bad thing for some bettors, but patient ones will reap great rewards.

Mind you, I don't know if I've exactly been "patient", with my plays...

Maybe just lucky.

:shrug:

Not a bad thing.

:weed:

:SIB

 

[IE]

a wise man once said,

be humble or be humbled by a dime line in baseball.....

keep it going ex.......

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

what I thought was love, that must have been lust

what I thought was love, that must have been lust

PLAYS

system picks

tigers +123 1/1.23
Blue Jays -155 3.1/2

other picks

reds -125 1.25/1

totals

fla@Mil ov9.5 -105 0.63/0.6


I think that's enough for today. Hoping to stay +50 units for May.
I wanted to try a runline, to try and get my figure into the plus there (it's my only downer-spot, for May), but nothing seems worthwhile?maybe the Jays, but I'll be happy with a W there (I originally had the Jays several points higher than the 68% listed, but the Jays bullpen got a huge workout yesterday, and Jays will probably need some relief behind Halladay in this one?coming off the DL and all?probably not the wisest play I could make, maybe, but Jays are eating up lefties this season (OPS .841).

Gonna 'cap all this weekend's game tomorrow. Looking forward to starting off June on the right foot.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks a lot, IE.

I'm hoping to keep posting for the entire season, for a change.

It would certainly make for a more interesting story if I can manage to get a book written.

Especially if I can make some long-distance friends along the way.

Responses have been few but I appreciate the ones I've received.

Some very good 'cappers on this forum
Proud to be a part of the mayhem!

:SIB

 

[thisisbad]

good luck as always ex

not lookin at col over with numbers you posted?

 

[Old School]

don't know how you find the time but it is damn sure appreciated..

numbers..reasoning..value ..

and.....exact wager.....

exactly what should be in a post where others view to consider to go along with their assessment of a play or to just wager along with you..

continued success..

I look for a solid June in your plays given the data you have been able to assemble..

 

[HuskerPower]

Book

Book

Hey ex, speaking of writing a book, look up Bets off, Its a book about bookies and vegas, great book I couldnt set it down when i got it

 

[rock2]

great job my man i wish i knew how your system works but do not want to bother u i will just keep playing the games u post
hell of a run keep it going stong my man
GLLLLLLL
GET-R-DON PEACE

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks for the words, everyone.

Glad my work is appreciated.



-------------------------------------------------------------

As for the cards@Rockies OVER...

System actually called for a 63% OVER the original 9.5.

Now that the total has dropped to 9,
system call is 68% over the 9.

Would be higher but Cards bats struggling (not yesterday, mind you).

Hard to call this Cook game...he's pretty hot (for Cook).

Think I'm gonna spectate and hope that the Tigers and Jays hold on (slim 1-run leads in both).

:SIB