Thursday May 3rd 2007
yesterday: 6-1 +6.35
May: 10-4 +8.62
ml 8-0 +8.3
rl 0-0
totals 0-2 -1.33
parlays 2-2 +1.65
system sides now 35-21 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system sides 3-1 yesterday, now 5-1 for May
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Hou 57 (-127)+1
Mil 59 (-130)+2
mets 66 (-135)+8 RL 52 (+124)+7
Sf 67 (-140)+8 RL 53 (+160)+14
Kc 51 (+110)+3
tor 53 (+152)+13
min 56 (-110)+3
nyy 61 (pettitte-millwood)
nyy 59 (mussina-tejada) (146)-1
Bost 72 (-215)+3 RL 60 (-114)+6
system totals (went 4-0 yesterday)
cin@Hou ov9 62% (-120)+7 --ump Joyce is EVEN
pitt@Mil ov8 66 (-110)+13
laa@Kc un9 60 (-120)+5 --ump slight OVER-ump (Poncino)
tor@Clev ov10 66 (-120)+11 --ump slight OVER-ump (Wendlestedt)
May is starting off very nice for me. System sides are 22-7, so far in May.
System totals are even 5-1, so far in May?too bad I didn't try any yesterday.
Laa@Kc looks like a decent under play (60% under system-wise), and I wouldn't let Poncino scare anyone off of this game; he's actually 3-1 unders, in 2007, but with a fairly low K%; Last year his totals went 16-16, again with a low K%.
If Houston could hit lefties, as they had in years past, then that total would have a good shot going over (Milton-Rodriquez). If the Brewers can hit Gorzelanny (.801 OPS vs lefties for April, which is darn good) then that total should go over (Bush has never really impressed me?used to be a Jay?but Pirates bats are a joke). Finally, Jays rotation struggling, and McGowan may not be the answer (he's had trips to the big club in '05 and '06, without much success), but I like the Jays bats to beat up on Lee for his first '07 start (Jays OPS .879 vs lefties through April); Wendlestedt should help this total, he's 3-3 totals this year, but was 19-14 OVERS last year and 23-10 OVERS in 2004 (2005 he actually played UNDER, 17-13, and with his highest K% ever, but that might be attributable to the larger K-zone that was introduced.
Mets and Giants look affordable, and I may take a shot at the Jays.
Be back to post my picks shortly.
yesterday: 6-1 +6.35
May: 10-4 +8.62
ml 8-0 +8.3
rl 0-0
totals 0-2 -1.33
parlays 2-2 +1.65
system sides now 35-21 (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system sides 3-1 yesterday, now 5-1 for May
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
Hou 57 (-127)+1
Mil 59 (-130)+2
mets 66 (-135)+8 RL 52 (+124)+7
Sf 67 (-140)+8 RL 53 (+160)+14
Kc 51 (+110)+3
tor 53 (+152)+13
min 56 (-110)+3
nyy 61 (pettitte-millwood)
nyy 59 (mussina-tejada) (146)-1
Bost 72 (-215)+3 RL 60 (-114)+6
system totals (went 4-0 yesterday)
cin@Hou ov9 62% (-120)+7 --ump Joyce is EVEN
pitt@Mil ov8 66 (-110)+13
laa@Kc un9 60 (-120)+5 --ump slight OVER-ump (Poncino)
tor@Clev ov10 66 (-120)+11 --ump slight OVER-ump (Wendlestedt)
May is starting off very nice for me. System sides are 22-7, so far in May.
System totals are even 5-1, so far in May?too bad I didn't try any yesterday.
Laa@Kc looks like a decent under play (60% under system-wise), and I wouldn't let Poncino scare anyone off of this game; he's actually 3-1 unders, in 2007, but with a fairly low K%; Last year his totals went 16-16, again with a low K%.
If Houston could hit lefties, as they had in years past, then that total would have a good shot going over (Milton-Rodriquez). If the Brewers can hit Gorzelanny (.801 OPS vs lefties for April, which is darn good) then that total should go over (Bush has never really impressed me?used to be a Jay?but Pirates bats are a joke). Finally, Jays rotation struggling, and McGowan may not be the answer (he's had trips to the big club in '05 and '06, without much success), but I like the Jays bats to beat up on Lee for his first '07 start (Jays OPS .879 vs lefties through April); Wendlestedt should help this total, he's 3-3 totals this year, but was 19-14 OVERS last year and 23-10 OVERS in 2004 (2005 he actually played UNDER, 17-13, and with his highest K% ever, but that might be attributable to the larger K-zone that was introduced.
Mets and Giants look affordable, and I may take a shot at the Jays.
Be back to post my picks shortly.
