thursday musings.....

[Happy Hippo]

what is going on with these lines recently? i know they are trying to stay consistent - raising the lines after the home team loses etc but joe public has been killing them the last few days... seems like an adjustment might be in order...

public is 6-1 and one game public split 50-50 in the last 3 days


thursday seems like a definite night to fade the public, but i'm not sure i can eat the 6.5 points on the pistons and bet on the over - for some reason these plays just don't seem right... but that's probably exactly what they want me to think...

 

[Jabberwocky]

Hippo,

just out of curiousity, are you defining "public" plays as any bet that some consensus site tells you that %51+ of the people are on? Just wondering what your definition of a public play is. By the way, the public has not been killing Vegas, it never does. Vegas always keeps the money even, right? Vegas doesn't gamble, we do. Good luck on your next plays.

 

[Happy Hippo]

Jabberwocky......

For my public anaylsis, I use a site that takes 11 offshore books into account (5Dimes, Pinny, Carib, etc). Usually I like to define ?public? plays as any % higher than 67% - in the 70%s starting to look even better.... If this number is not a good reference to use, please school me....

But honestly for my late night musings last night I just took a cursory glance over the public figures and today I see they average out to only 61% and only 1 play hit above 67%, so my musings may have been better left to themselves......

And you are correct - Vegas has not been ?killed? by the public - my language was a bit too strong there. But they do make more money when the public loses and this is their ultimate goal, correct? That is what I was insinuating through my poor choice of words....

good luck to you too

 

[Jabberwocky]

Thanks for the reply Hippo...seems like a reasonable standard for a public play. As far as Vegas winning or losing, the money always stays even, its just the percentage of people playing a particular side that flucuates (those on the non-public or "sharp" side just make bigger bets).

Overall, I think that it is a proven long term winning strategy to fade the public when the percentages get above %67 as many others on this board have observed. I personally try to focus on the games more than public fade plays, but then again I am writing this from my work-a-day job so what do I know.

I always read your posts and appreciate your contributions to the board. Bounce back from your recent slump and stick it the man... :box2:

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Jabberwocky,

Who you got tonight? As you know, I suck in the NBA! I'm really indecisive on tonight's game, and I need a winner. You were on Phoenix last night, so you must know what you're doing. I have decided to follow you blindly for the remainder of the playoffs. I am fully aware that you only have 35 posts, but I truly believe that you will put money in my pockets with your picks. I can't wait for tonight's selection! Thanks in advance.

 

[Jabberwocky]

Wiser,

That was a drunken, hater comment from someone who was who following you on a couple of picks that you happened to miss. A very regretable moment and I honestly apologize for it. Its not what this board is all about. I make plays purely for fun and I would not recommend anyone follow my picks (not that you would.) But for the record, I had the Heat in game one and have them to finish a Suns/Heat+pts parlay tonight. I am going to put a bit more on the ml as I really think they have a shot to win again. There you have it. After the Pistons trounce them tonight you can rip me apart, but hopefully we can call a truce and you will accept my apology. Nice run in the bases yesterday.

 

[Wise and Wiser]

I accept your apology.

 

[tennisgimmp]

miami and over for me..