Hey everyone - i love this game tonight - locked into the side & total to this game yesterday and just made the moneyline play tonight - here are the 3 plays I made for tonight's game:
PITTSBURGH -10.5
$4,400 to win $4,000
PITTSBURGH OVER 34.5
$4,400 to win $4,000
CINCY MONEYLINE +550
$1,600 to win $8,800
Now for some analysis about these plays...and to explain why i have a little something on both sides
I've been on an nice run lately, and no reason to believe that won't continue tonight...I absolutely love playing totals where it's perceived to be a huge defensive battle over the total in the NFL - can't tell you how many times i see these totals in the low to mid 30's go over - just when people think it will be a 10-7 game, they put 45-50 on the board...i know the Steelers just won 11-10 (got lucky having SD +5 in that one) - and in come the Bengals. How are they going to score? The answer is i don't think they will score much - in fact i have them scoring just 6, 7 or 10 points...however I have PItt scoring 28-35 in this one. I have a feeling Pitt covers the OVER by themselves.
As I analyze this game - I have at least one defensive TD being scored here. I fear for Fitzpatrick tonight. The Bengals will be without 2 starting offensive and defensive linemen. Don't discount the Chad Johnson not playing angle as well - this simply allows them to shut down TJ Housch. Chris Henry has been terrible since coming back, Chatman is out w/ injury - it's going to be tough w/ the Pitt pass rush and lack of receiving to get the passing game going. The Bengals running game - please - good luck Benson. One nasty run defense for Pitt. I really think Fitzpatrick turns the ball over - makes a critical Int - or this defense forces a big fumble or defensive score.
Now for Pitt - let's be honest - the offens has struggled. Something about Cincy though that brings out the best of Pitt. Pitt beat them 38-10 in Cincy already. I think Pitt finds a way to possibly cover the over all by themselves tonight. 5 offensive TD's is not out of the question.
I don't think the spread comes into play, in fact I believe the current % of games this season a spread has mattered is 17% - that's about 1 in 6 games. So pick who you think will win this game - don't worry about the points. If we go with that angle - how can ANYONE expect the Bengals to win this game? Well, as we know there is ALWAYS an outside chance this could happen. We see these big dogs fighting it out w/ chances to win all the time, so i cannot completely discount a Cincy win.
So that's where the Cincy ML comes in to play. Basically, I feel extremely good about Pitt and the OVER coming in tonight. I feel the points are not coming into play. I just can't take 10.5, and have seen it up to 11.5 now. But in case i'm way off base on this one - i recommend taking the cincy ML as a sort of hedge play. If Cincy wins this game, i collect $8,800. I of course lose the Pitt play, and the over - well who knows - if this is a 10-7 type of game, then i lose that as well...but if Cincy wins, and game goes under, i break dead even after juice. And if Cincy does win though, there is an extremely good shot of the over coming in - might be a 20-17 game.
Of course - there is always the chance at an 0-3 night. If we see a 17-13 Pitt win, well them i'm just going to live w/ the 0-3 night. I always put my money where my mouth is. I believe Pitt gets it done - they generate some offense, and score a few TD's. Also think they have a ST/D TD tonight.
Cincy is a sad team right now - and I just think w/ Johnson out, the injuries have mounted, Fitzpatrick playing against possibly the best defense in the NFL. Could lead to some short fields with some turnovers. Total is low enough that there is not much room for error if you bet the under. Seen this too many times - those 33 or 34 totals, and game is over by end of 3rd quarter. I know several who like the under, and i respect their opinions, i just think this one goes over.
There is also an x-factor I believe we might see tonight - i think the refs will go out of their way to make sure we don't see a lopsided flag calls like against San Diego - think there may be a few calls (or non-calls) that help out Pitt tonight. Just a hunch.
Steelers offense is due for a breakout game - what better game than tonight, on a short week - with Cincy battered and bruised in that OT tie just a few days ago. I'm a huge Steelers fan tonight!
GL!
PITTSBURGH -10.5
$4,400 to win $4,000
PITTSBURGH OVER 34.5
$4,400 to win $4,000
CINCY MONEYLINE +550
$1,600 to win $8,800
Now for some analysis about these plays...and to explain why i have a little something on both sides
I've been on an nice run lately, and no reason to believe that won't continue tonight...I absolutely love playing totals where it's perceived to be a huge defensive battle over the total in the NFL - can't tell you how many times i see these totals in the low to mid 30's go over - just when people think it will be a 10-7 game, they put 45-50 on the board...i know the Steelers just won 11-10 (got lucky having SD +5 in that one) - and in come the Bengals. How are they going to score? The answer is i don't think they will score much - in fact i have them scoring just 6, 7 or 10 points...however I have PItt scoring 28-35 in this one. I have a feeling Pitt covers the OVER by themselves.
As I analyze this game - I have at least one defensive TD being scored here. I fear for Fitzpatrick tonight. The Bengals will be without 2 starting offensive and defensive linemen. Don't discount the Chad Johnson not playing angle as well - this simply allows them to shut down TJ Housch. Chris Henry has been terrible since coming back, Chatman is out w/ injury - it's going to be tough w/ the Pitt pass rush and lack of receiving to get the passing game going. The Bengals running game - please - good luck Benson. One nasty run defense for Pitt. I really think Fitzpatrick turns the ball over - makes a critical Int - or this defense forces a big fumble or defensive score.
Now for Pitt - let's be honest - the offens has struggled. Something about Cincy though that brings out the best of Pitt. Pitt beat them 38-10 in Cincy already. I think Pitt finds a way to possibly cover the over all by themselves tonight. 5 offensive TD's is not out of the question.
I don't think the spread comes into play, in fact I believe the current % of games this season a spread has mattered is 17% - that's about 1 in 6 games. So pick who you think will win this game - don't worry about the points. If we go with that angle - how can ANYONE expect the Bengals to win this game? Well, as we know there is ALWAYS an outside chance this could happen. We see these big dogs fighting it out w/ chances to win all the time, so i cannot completely discount a Cincy win.
So that's where the Cincy ML comes in to play. Basically, I feel extremely good about Pitt and the OVER coming in tonight. I feel the points are not coming into play. I just can't take 10.5, and have seen it up to 11.5 now. But in case i'm way off base on this one - i recommend taking the cincy ML as a sort of hedge play. If Cincy wins this game, i collect $8,800. I of course lose the Pitt play, and the over - well who knows - if this is a 10-7 type of game, then i lose that as well...but if Cincy wins, and game goes under, i break dead even after juice. And if Cincy does win though, there is an extremely good shot of the over coming in - might be a 20-17 game.
Of course - there is always the chance at an 0-3 night. If we see a 17-13 Pitt win, well them i'm just going to live w/ the 0-3 night. I always put my money where my mouth is. I believe Pitt gets it done - they generate some offense, and score a few TD's. Also think they have a ST/D TD tonight.
Cincy is a sad team right now - and I just think w/ Johnson out, the injuries have mounted, Fitzpatrick playing against possibly the best defense in the NFL. Could lead to some short fields with some turnovers. Total is low enough that there is not much room for error if you bet the under. Seen this too many times - those 33 or 34 totals, and game is over by end of 3rd quarter. I know several who like the under, and i respect their opinions, i just think this one goes over.
There is also an x-factor I believe we might see tonight - i think the refs will go out of their way to make sure we don't see a lopsided flag calls like against San Diego - think there may be a few calls (or non-calls) that help out Pitt tonight. Just a hunch.
Steelers offense is due for a breakout game - what better game than tonight, on a short week - with Cincy battered and bruised in that OT tie just a few days ago. I'm a huge Steelers fan tonight!
GL!
