Thursday?s best NHL bets

[Lumi]

Thursday?s best NHL bets

Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings (-200, 5.5)

Rick Tocchet is fed up. After watching his team lose its eighth game in nine tries, the Lightning head coach decided there needed to be a shakeup.

Forwards Alex Tanguay and Jeff Halpern were benched for Tuesday?s game against the Predators. Tampa Bay lost 4-7 despite dressing eight defensemen.

?We have to get this thing straighten out,? Tocchet told the St. Petersburg Times. ?We lose because teams are better than us, you can live with that. But there are some games wewere outplaying a team and for whatever reason we just went the other way.

?It?s mind boggling and it?s not going to happen any more. If I have to play a defenseman at center because we don?t have a guy doing a job, we?re going to do it until we do other things. But right now, I can only control the guys that are here.?

Tanguay, who has just four goals in 32 games, wasn?t surprised by the benching.

?What?s there to say? I try my hardest. I guess it?s not good enough. The team is slumping and I?m a big part of it.?

Those don?t sound like words of a motivated player.

Pick: Red Wings

Nashville Predators at Edmonton Oilers (-120, 5.5)

It?s funny how things go sometimes. The Oilers won five of six games on their road trip and they had time off to prepare for the Kings on Tuesday.

Maybe that?s why Edmonton coach Pat Quinn was beside himself after his club fell 3-2.

?I haven?t felt angry this year,? he told the Edmonton Sun. ?But I am angry about how we played. We have lots of goddamn excuses, but the result is the same.?

Expect the Oilers to put together a more complete game Thursday against the visiting Predators.

Pick: Oilers

 

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DUNKEL INDEX 17 DEC 09

DUNKEL INDEX 17 DEC 09

Today's NHL Picks
Los Angeles at Calgary
The Kings look to build on their 6-2 record in their last 8 road games. Los Angeles is the pick (+160) according to Dunkel, which has the Kings favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+160). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 17
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST
Game 51-52: Dallas at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.910; Atlanta 10.793
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+120); Under
Game 53-54: Phoenix at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.604; Columbus 11.703
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (-150); Under
Game 55-56: Minnesota at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.026; Montreal 11.906
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+100); Over
Game 57-58: NY Rangers at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.010; NY Islanders 10.251
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Islanders (-110); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (-110); Under
Game 59-60: Pittsburgh at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.224; Philadelphia 11.528
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-110); 6
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+100); Over
Game 61-62: Tampa Bay at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.314; Detroit 11.781
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-200); Under
Game 63-64: Nashville at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.892; Edmonton 11.742
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+110); Over
Game 65-66: Los Angeles at Calgary
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 12.195; Calgary 11.504
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (+160); Under
Game 67-68: Anaheim at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.847; San Jose 12.297
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-215); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-215); Under

 

[Lumi]

Western Conference owns the East

Western Conference owns the East

Western Conference owns the East
In his weekly column Pucking the trends Illegal Curve?s Ari Baum-Cohen looks at news from around the NHL and the potential impact on bettors.

Close encounters

John Vogl of the Buffalo News reports that the Buffalo Sabres? record in one-goal games is one of the main reasons they?re at the top of the Northeast Division.

Buffalo is tied with the Pittsburgh Penguins for the second best winning percentage in one-goal games at .750 (9-1-2 record).

"There's been a big emphasis on it and the plays you need to make when the games are tight, the plays you need to make that won't allow the other teams to get the opportunities," Sabres coach Lindy Ruff said.

The New Jersey Devils have the highest winning percentage in one-goal games at .786 (11-2-1), while the Tampa bay Lightning have the worst winning percentage at .250 (4-3-9).

Kings of the west?

The Los Angeles Kings have not made the playoffs since 2002, but they are currently tied with the San Jose Sharks for the most points in the Western Conference with 45.

"This is actually a carry-over from last year," said forward Anze Kopitar. "You could see signs that we were becoming a pretty good team last year. The difference was we would play good for a while and then not so good for a while.?

Helene Elliot of the Los Angeles Times writes that the Kings? success has come as a result of ?grit and surprising depth?.

On the topic of grit, forward Ryan Smyth is expected to return from injury as early as next week.

The Kings have a record of 21-11-3 and are 19-16 ATS.

Home is where the wins are

The Vancouver Canucks are winning at home by an average of 1.53 goals (3.53 goals for per game, 2.00 goals allowed per game), the best differential in the league.

The next best team is the Washington Capitals, who have been winning at home by an average of 1.00 goals per game.

As Jeff Paterson, a sports talk-show host on Vancouver sports radio points out, Vancouver must win now on its eight-game homestand, because during the second half of the season, they will play a stretch of 14 consecutive road games.

Vancouver is 13-4-0 at home this season and 11-6 ATS.

East is the least

As James Mirtle of the Globe and Mail points out, it is the mediocrity of the Eastern Conference - particularly in the bottom half of the conference - that has allowed almost every team to remain in contention for a playoff spot.

Mirtle observes that the Western Conference is 72-37-15 against teams from the East, and that the average Western Conference team is on pace for 97 points, seven points higher than the average Eastern Conference club.

?The whole league [is close],? said Ottawa Senators forward Daniel Alfredsson. ?The standings change everyday ? it?s unbelievable how competitive it is. It pushes everybody. As players, it?s mentally harder, but if you?re a fan, I think you see a lot more intense hockey every night now.?

On schedule

Thursday Dec. 17, Los Angeles Kings at Calgary Flames

The Los Angeles Kings finish the Western Canadian portion of their road trip with a game against the Calgary Flames. It will be Los Angeles? third road game in four nights.

Thursday Dec. 17, Phoenix Coyotes at Columbus Blue Jackets

The Phoenix Coyotes must play on back-to-back nights (it will also be their third road game in four nights) against the Columbus Blue Jackets on Thursday.

Friday Dec. 18, Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Louis Blues

After a game on Tuesday in Nashville, the Lightning must play in Detroit on Thursday before traveling to St. Louis on Friday.

 

[Lumi]

Analyzing the Western Conference

Analyzing the Western Conference

Analyzing the Western Conference

To start with, let's be honest and admit that it's a safe hockey bet that logic has totally abandoned the division this season; just take a look at the Colorado Avalanche. They started this campaign with a rookie general manager and coach but they have somehow managed to maintain their impressive pace set early in the season. Right now, they have 44 points, a total that is just one behind Conference leaders San Jose Sharks. It is interesting to note that they have a poor 3-6 record in Overtime, meaning that there has been no luck here. Usually, when they have won they have won convincingly.

As ever, a netminder is, literally, behind everything. Step forward Craig Andersson. Rookies Ryan O'Reilly and Matt Duchene have also weighed in unexpectedly. In October they won 10 of 14 games. November and December may not have been quite so dominant but they are still looking like strong play-off contenders bearing in mind that at the start of the campaign, their only likely achievement was taking the wooden spoon.

The Nashville Predators have joined them in the play-off bracket. They made it to that stage between 2004 and 2008 but were viewed more as a fading force last term... and that was before they let Scott Nichol and Vernon Fiddler leave in the summer.

The Los Angeles Kings, who were recently toppled as Conference leaders, are another team to upset the NHL betting odds and buck the trend. True, there has been steady improvement in recent years, but this is a franchise that has not made the play-offs since 2002. Despite this, they have amassed 45 points; the same total as San Jose and Washington, who own the NHL's best record right now. In their last nine games, the Kings are 7-1-1 and overall they are 21-11-3. Last season, Los Angeles didn't secure their 21st victory until the beginning of February.

Forward Justin Williams has been quoted as saying: "We're where we want to be, but we feel we haven't reached our potential yet. And that's our job - to go out and find it and really dominate teams, which I know we can. I think we've shown this season that we're an elite team in this Conference, and a team that deserves respect."

Elsewhere, in direct contrast, the Anaheim Ducks have simply sunk. An awful October was made slightly better by an improved November but only because the majority of games were played on home ice. December has been depressingly familiar; it looks like they've hit rock bottom and have started to dig.

The Phoenix Coyotes will probably find their way back to the same place by the end of the season but at the moment they remain in the play-off places. An attempted move to Hamilton, Ontario was blocked by the League, who, after legal wrangling, took over the ownership of the team.

In the meantime they managed to pull off a 3-0 win against the Penguins, the favorites in the odds to retain their crown this season. The acquisition of two veteran coaches for which the word 'wily' was invented (Dave Tippett and Dave King) has been key for them.

The Edmonton Oilers may be replacing them. A decent October of 7-6-1 was followed by a terrible record of 3-6-2 up to the last week of November. But since then they have rattled up five straight wins. Last term, the Oilers fans wanted their season to fall apart after missing the play-offs so they could take advantage of a higher draft pick. That may not be an option this time around.