No problem Dan.
A few thoughts: I do alot of capping off line history. It's pretty simple. The biggest players do more research than I do and more information favors a better result. That information is often reflected in the line.
North Carolina St. +3
Offensively, stats show the Wolfpack better in every area. Their run defense is better. BC is a more popular betting team, based on past reputation. Some big money is going on NCST with Las Vegas Hilton down to 1.5. I like the dog in the noreaster weather. Wolfpack are 9-3-2 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Wolfpack are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games as a road underdog.
Iowa +3
As mentioned in other threads, Iowa is a much better play as a dog with HC Ferentz's NFL mentallity of just get the win. Look at the last two games. Alot riding on this game for both teams. Wisky has only lost 3 games at home over a long period, with Iowa having one. I doubt Badger RB Zach Brown plays, hurting the running game and pass protection. I'll take the superior defense. A side note: History shows teams going from a dog to a favorite don't fair well. Hawkeyes are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Hawkeyes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Hawkeyes are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog.
USC -10
USC's only loss was on the road with a new QB. Barkley is showing improvement with a much higher completion percentage @ CAL. Hard analyse movement with a heavily biased east coast thinking on a national type team. One of the best defenses in USC, needed to cover on the road. I think the OL for the Irish made a mistake with their bulliten board talk. The Trojan D has given up 3 rushing TD's and no passing TD's. Notre Dame has one of the best offenses, one will have to give. Trojans are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Will add more later.
