Thursday September 20th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thursday September 20th 2007

yesterday: 9-5 +3.51
September: 131-121 +18.09
ml 56-45 +8.2
rl 5-6 -1.78
totals 41-26 +10.38
parlays & IFs 29-44 +1.29
system picks 2-2 yesterday; 29-30 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 2-3 yesterday; 45-23 in September (66%)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Col 64% (-114)+10
Sd 62 (-158)even
mets 67 (-133)+9 RL 53 (+115)+6
phil 51 (-125)-5
Atl 54 (Bennett-Suppan)
Stl 58 (-120)+3
cin 51 (+150)+11
cws 55 (+112)+7
Tex 63 (-140)+4
Laa 67 (-182)+2 RL 53 (+111)+5

system totals

hou@Stl un9 65% (-130)+8 --ump N/A
cin@Sf un8.5 71 (+100)+21 --ump N/A
balt@Tex ov11 65 (-125)+9 --ump N/A


Getting away with murder these last few days; missed a couple of key system picks but managed to pull off a 4th straight winning day. Small plus on sides, small plus on totals (2 system totals missed by one run and the other missed by 2) and hit a couple of 2-day parlays in there with the Padres' 2-out bottom of 9 homer. A 2-run shot would have been better for me as then I'd have scored the under but the final blast of the evening was still a 4 unit swing for me, so, like I said, I've been getting away with murder.

Rockies and Mets look best to me for Thursday. Lowe has trouble with the Rockies and their home field advantage is really showing in this series. Mets should enjoy facing Willis while Glavine is a man on fire. Reds are also a system pick but not highly regarded due to the low call (51%). No other side really interests me save for maybe the Chisox; Garland with good numbers vs while Greinke has poor numbers vs the Chisox; I came so close to buying back some of my Royals play yesterday, at the last second (still might have, given a bit more time) as I thought that the lineup that the Royals was fielding was pretty pathetic?case in point the 7-0 loss; Chisox look like they'll use their big sticks for this series so they have a definate edge at the plate; Greinke can be tough but, as I've said, the numbers vs opponent favour Garland and the Pale Hose. Cards' Looper has thrown 3 gems at the Astros already this season but I don't think I can play the Cards the rest of the way considering the crap lineup that they're fielding; under might be worthwhile as Wandy tossed a real good game vs the Cards earlier this season?when they actually had some players playing. Rangers might not be a solid play as the season winds down but, perhaps a worse go than them might be the Orioles?looks like a little value in a Zambrano fade but I'm looking at keeping it light for Thursday so I'll probably pass there.

Rare off-day for system totals at 2-3 but, like I said, one of the misses was by 1.5 runs, and the other two both missed by a half a run (if there could be such a thing). I'm already on the Bailey-Cain game under (go-go gadget Homer!)?got it at +100 when it opened?I see it up to -120 now so I'll leave my bet as it is. O's bats have kind of called it quits, it seems, so I don't know about that Ameriquest total. As I mentioned, the Looper-Wandy game might be worth a play under, but crap is it ever expensive.

Is five straight winners for me possible?
Will shoot for eight as I want to clean up Friday through Sunday.

Will post plays any.
The Sox need Manny.

GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

I'm alright, Jack. Keep your hands off my stack.

PLAYS

system picks

Rockies -114 2.28/2
mets -133 2.66/2
cin +150 0.67/1

other picks

white sox +112 1/1.12

totals

cin@Sf un8.5 +100 1.5/1.5

9-team IF bet
1.Rangers -1.5 0.8/1.08
2.mets 0.7/0.5
3.Rockies 0.72/0.6
4.chisox 0.82/0.82
5.hou-Stl un9 1/0.74
6.reds 0.74/1.07
7.phillies -1.5 0.8/1
8.Padres -1.5 0.8/0.96
9.Angels -1.5 1.22/1.22
0.8 to win max.8.


Derek Lowe is a darn good pitcher and with the Mets picking up a key game yesterday I think that a bit of pressure is off them so I don't know how they'll respond. That was my thinking as I've talked myself out of going more on those best bets today. I kind of feel like I should take advantage of the few remaining good plays that come up over the next 10 days but I'm wary of the beating that system picks are taking lately AND I wasn't too pleased with how my choices on the Royals and Bosox turned out yesterday; one friggin' run between those two high call (was a 64 and a 65 resperectally). I only really like the one total as the O'sticks look pathetic (go Rangers RL!) and the St.Louis game is a bit too expensive, at least with the way that Wandy appears to be closing out the season?Looper looks great lately, though; might try it later if it comes down in price; think it already went up, so it might even go to an 8.5. Enough of my blabbering. Sorry I'm not adding good arguments the last while but I've been pretty spent by this time of night lately. College and NFL are keeping me extra busier. Really want to bang some heads this weekend. NFL looks to be slim pickin's but I'm all over the Steelers at between -3 and -7, like the Colts to win, and I also have some Bengals, Cowboys and Panthers action. See my NFL post for a chuckle?they should get better once baseball ends and I can spend the time?another week or two and I should be coming up with the % calls for the NFL like I've been doing for baseball. Totally out of practice; that "system" is in shambles compared to what I'm doing here?I'll really need to reinvent an old one I was using. Didn't I say something about not rambling? Need some sleep before the early games.

I think I'm going to make it.

GL

 

[Theboundbook]

Good luck today..... Keep coming out +. Good job!

 

[DoMyDermBest]

great capping. good luck and thanks for posting

 

[Dog lover]

Xtrap,
Your diligence is not rewarded nearly enough!
I read your posts daily to validate my picks and use some of yours. Keep up the good work and best of luck to you and all of us. Thanks for all you do!

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Hendrix bless you all.
I really enjoy this stuff, especially during baseball season, so it really doesn't feel like work to me.

--------------------------------------

Quick word on Friday's numbers.

Mets will be a system pick, for sure, and if you think that they've got a good shot against lefty Willis tonight then you should love their chances v.Olsen tomorrow; guy is Mr.Fade.

Nationals also with some value as Eaton is trash, Hill is the best that the Nats have, and the Nats have been hitting well for weeks now.

Braves I sorta like; like the under a little better for that one.

Padres with a good shot as the Padres can handle lefties pretty well, but Morales has been great for 2 straight; I'll pass on the under 7 as I got burned by a half a run on yesterday's Petco under AND the Padres can really handle lefties, not to mention that the Rox likely don't get shut out...not with their lineup.

Tigers I'll try as I think that Jurrjens looks pretty good and the Tigersticks will dominate the pathetic Royalsticks even if the Tigers are playing some call-ups. Under maybe worthwhile there, too, as Jurrjens hasn't allowed more than a single run in any start, Buckner looks like he may have potential, the Royals can't hit the side of a barn door, and the Tigers might be fielding some call-ups. I'm winded.

I'll be giving the Devil Rays a call in the low 50's (won't learn on these tools) so there is some value on them Friday...maybe...should be a phenomenal pitching matchup and the under for this one is my favorite total for Friday; Sox with some trouble hitting against the Jays, which I watched a lot of, while the D'Rays are surprisingly having some trouble too (I expected them to finish the year strong, but it's not really happening). Both Beckett and Kazmir are coming off of a pair of gems, so some continuation would be nice for my bankroll.

One other system totals besides the ones already mentioned (Atlanta/Detroit/Tampa). Jays-Yanks has a shot to go under as Roy has good numbers vs the Yankees and the Jays can't really be counted on scoring more than 3-5 runs per ballgame it seems. I like this one kinda tied for second with that Atlanta under; Tropicana game still looks best under to me as that's where the hottest SP's are going...Hendrix save the Devil Rays bullpen.

Gonna do some updates and then get some college action going. Might even tune in to see if the Pale Hose can start me off right.

Kick ass today.

:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

crap...I'm real sorry that I don't have any of that Kauffman under. System call was 61% under the 9...didn't know it would be under-ump Cuzzi doing the game--really should be a system total.

At least Garland is keeping the Chisox in it.

Like to see some Rox runs. The sooner the better.

Go Rockies!!!

:00hour :00hour :00hour

:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

It's a holiday! It's a Holliday!

:00hour

mama, mama, please...no more facelifts
I just don't know which one you is

:weed:

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

when I saw the Rox line it was Hawpe y!

:00hour

Sure looks good there.
Can't imagine them not holding this lead.
Can't imagine them scoring less than 10 or 12 from the looks of it.

pays for simple pleasures

:weed:

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

when I saw the Rox line it was Hawpe y!

:00hour

Sure looks good there.
Can't imagine them not holding this lead.
Can't imagine them scoring less than 10 or 12 from the looks of it.

pays for simple pleasures

:weed:

Sure, pick on the dodgers.............lol

you can forget your system numbers with them the rest of the year. they'll be lucky to get to 81 wins. fade em from here on out.

and send grady little packing with you.

don't worry.....the gutless dodgers can't score 6 runs and they will likely give up plent more.


gl

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

my condolences over your recently attained playoff chances.
this series really forked the Dodgers.
my Jays were done, I figure, when B.J. Ryan went down, so I've just been enjoying some Burnett resurgence recently...not much else to applaud from that bunch, save for maybe the season by Rios, and/or the emergence of Marcum and McGowan.

chit I shoulda pummelled that one.
Oh well.
even if it hits I'm not increasing my Mets play.
price has gone up anyway.
system picks due for a 2-0...struggling to stay above .500 this month, after hitting near 65% for April through August. I don't get it. It's like certain games are just jinxed this month. System stats (I should post 'em...been a while) are smoking, with sides coming in at OVER 60% for ALL GAMES. Trouble is, low 50's are smoking while low 60's are not up to par. 64+ is coming in great.

I don't know if I can get this intense next baseball season.
Gonna try to simplify things.
Sure would make sense if I'm contemplating a book.
System is pretty simple but I've been taking it's base numbers and adjusting them quite a bit based on recent performances and numbers vs opponent, etc. ad absudium.
Some key adjustments that I made at the all-star break have really helped, I think, and system totals have rocked since then. Still haing trouble factoring in bullpens, though I've been doing so for years; a hot Kazmir has to give the D'Rays a solid pitching rating for tomorrow's game but their atrocious bullpen has to be accounted for, in some way...difficult. Sox it's easier as I really don't need to penalize any SP ratings with their killer pen.

Jeez...I can go on about this stuff forever.
Should write a book already.
Had a TON of practice writing about baseball handicapping here at MJ's during the course of the season. Really helped to get me focused through the grind. Is a grind. 2,430 games is one hell of a schedule to handicap. That's 4,860 betting options for the season counting only side and total. Got team totals and runlines, too, so baseball in one giant friggin' long continuation of endless betting potential.
Maybe not enough practing writing.

10 or 12 more days and I'll have survived a full season at madjacks. Posting since opening day. Usually I'm not so committed. Probably need to be.

:weed:

 

[Theboundbook]

my condolences over your recently attained playoff chances.
this series really forked the Dodgers.
my Jays were done, I figure, when B.J. Ryan went down, so I've just been enjoying some Burnett resurgence recently...not much else to applaud from that bunch, save for maybe the season by Rios, and/or the emergence of Marcum and McGowan.

chit I shoulda pummelled that one.
Oh well.
even if it hits I'm not increasing my Mets play.
price has gone up anyway.
system picks due for a 2-0...struggling to stay above .500 this month, after hitting near 65% for April through August. I don't get it. It's like certain games are just jinxed this month. System stats (I should post 'em...been a while) are smoking, with sides coming in at OVER 60% for ALL GAMES. Trouble is, low 50's are smoking while low 60's are not up to par. 64+ is coming in great.

I don't know if I can get this intense next baseball season.
Gonna try to simplify things.
Sure would make sense if I'm contemplating a book.
System is pretty simple but I've been taking it's base numbers and adjusting them quite a bit based on recent performances and numbers vs opponent, etc. ad absudium.
Some key adjustments that I made at the all-star break have really helped, I think, and system totals have rocked since then. Still haing trouble factoring in bullpens, though I've been doing so for years; a hot Kazmir has to give the D'Rays a solid pitching rating for tomorrow's game but their atrocious bullpen has to be accounted for, in some way...difficult. Sox it's easier as I really don't need to penalize any SP ratings with their killer pen.

Jeez...I can go on about this stuff forever.
Should write a book already.
Had a TON of practice writing about baseball handicapping here at MJ's during the course of the season. Really helped to get me focused through the grind. Is a grind. 2,430 games is one hell of a schedule to handicap. That's 4,860 betting options for the season counting only side and total. Got team totals and runlines, too, so baseball in one giant friggin' long continuation of endless betting potential.
Maybe not enough practing writing.

10 or 12 more days and I'll have survived a full season at madjacks. Posting since opening day. Usually I'm not so committed. Probably need to be. :weed:

I've appreciated all the work you have done.... You have helped me through a few grinding parts of the season to get back on track. Thanks. :00hour

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

thanks for the kind words BB

Looking at a 1-1 +1.0 for the early games, unless the Rockies bullpen really dissappoints me.

Adding the following:

2-day-2-team parlay
--mets ml (Tommy)
--mets ml (Pedro)
+162
0.62/1

2-day-2-team parlay
--Rangers ml
--Padres ml (Jake)
+154
0.65/1

hou@Stl un8.5 -105 0.63/0.6


That's all I want for tonight. A Mets victory and I should come out of today fine.
See you with Friday's numbers between 10 and 11 pm.
Mets, Nationals, Tigers and Devil Rays are likely system picks.
Unders in Atlanta and Tampa look good.

Damn...just got the craving for a beer.
That hasn't happened for a while.
Think I'll stick with with the other; never leaves me feeling like shit as the booze can.

:weed:

 

[jmizeus]

bud

your fingers must hurt after every nite
keep up the great work

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

LOL...like I said, man...it's been great practice for my writing about the subject, which is partly what I was hoping for. Was hoping to get more written but I really need a vacation


in lieu of that I'll take a Mets victory...

go METS!!!

:00hour :00hour

Tommy boy!...

:00hour :00hour

:weed: