Thursday September 6th 2007
yesterday: 11-6 +2.6
September: 43-43 +0.1
ml 17-12 +3.08
rl 1-3 -6.52
totals 14-10 +0.59
parlays & IFs 11-18 +2.95
system picks 2-2 yesterday; 10-10 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-1 yesterday; 12-7 in September (70.6%)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
pitt 55% (+134)+12
lad 52 (-103)+1
Det 51 (-135)-7 cws 49 (+127)+4
bost 69 (-157)+7 RL 55 (+101)+5
Laa 64 (-149)+4
system totals
none today
Not used to playing so many dogs, like I did yesterday, so I'm happy enough to survive it. Second straight day I've missed my biggest bet (and missed the highest calls), once again preventing me from cashing in large. I haven't had a BIG winner yet in September, though I've been up for 3 of the first 5 days, including 2 straight. Even went 3-1-1 on totals so good to see some improvement there.
I had some trouble deciding whether to post a 64 or a 65 for that Angels contest; got a base 'cap of 66% on the game but I usually adjust them based on the latest performances; at a 65 it would actually be a aystem pick but with the Angels dropping a rare one at home, and the Indians now winners of 11 of the past 12, and with Byrd coming off of a shutout, I figure that a 64 makes more sense than the 65 or 66; Escobar has a CG shutout over the Indians in the only encounter this season and I have Byrd's rating still several points lower than that of Escobar's, not to mention a BP edge for the Angels (giving the edge at the plate to the Angels for this contest, too, as they're stellar with the sticks at home while the Indians OPS on the road is about 50 points lower than at home, plus the opposing pitcher's affect the offensive numbers and, as mentioned, Angels have the better SP going); should be a good game but I think that the Angels is the right call?somewhere between 60% and my call of 64% seems like a reasonable range for that game; going to try a piece.
There are, somehow, actually 2 system picks on tap despite the small board. Pirates look pretty good in this series and will be giving former 1st-round pick (1st overall, actually) Bullington his first start here. Maroth is one of those rare pitcher's who isn't excelling with a move from the AL to the NL?he's really been fade material as a starter for the Cardinals and he has been pounded hard, both times, during his recent work as a reliever. Looking over Bullington's minor league numbers isn't terrribly encouraging if you plan on backing him today: he was 11-9 with a 4.00 era on the year, but more discouraging than that is the fact that he has been pounded pretty hard over his past 3 starts (6.23 era over that time), going 0-3 in the process; he was 1-5 with a 3.94 era over his last 10 starts on the farm?his numbers from 5 of those games were pretty good and 2 more weren't too bad. Tough call as the Cardinals are a perfect 5-0 in games #4 of a series while the Pirates are 4-4. Over the 10 is a possibility but I'm not a fan of playing afternoon games over the total as, from what I've seen, most pitcher's seem to have better numbers during day games than night games (not always the case, but predominantly).
The safer, and more expensive, system pick is the Bosox. They've had little trouble with Olson in 2 August meetings and Garrett's 7.22 era appears to be well-earned, judging by the consistency of his poor outtings. Wakefield's recent back problems may be a bit of a concern but he was fantastic over his past 3 outtings?he's actually working on 22 consecutive scoreless innings. This is about as high a call as I'll get for a road team. My call (69%) is actually VERY conservative, believe it or not, as I penalized the Bosox a little for dropping the closer against the Jays and also reduced the Bosox offensive number due to Manny still being MIA (though the Bosox seem to still be producing, even without him). O's closer against the D'Rays should actually balance out any penalty for the Bosox loss Wednesday, but I'm satisfied with the adjusted call of 69%. O's used a couple of key long-men in relief Wednesday so I'm not sure what they do if (more likely, when) Olson gets rocked early. Looks like a reasonably safe place to put some money. Thought I might have to settle for the runline but the moneyline is always safer and the line really isn't too bad considering how much of a mismatch this one is.
Dodgers and Tigers plays would be crapshoots, in my opinion; only value might actually be on the Pale Hose, with Buehrle chuckin'.
No system totals today, but there might be some worthwhile team totals (Pirates and Bosox over come instantly to mind). I'll add a look at team totals to this thread a little bit later.
Here's lookin' for a 3-peat plus.
Will eventually post all picks. What happened to the Rockies sticks?
GL
yesterday: 11-6 +2.6
September: 43-43 +0.1
ml 17-12 +3.08
rl 1-3 -6.52
totals 14-10 +0.59
parlays & IFs 11-18 +2.95
system picks 2-2 yesterday; 10-10 in September (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 3-1 yesterday; 12-7 in September (70.6%)
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
pitt 55% (+134)+12
lad 52 (-103)+1
Det 51 (-135)-7 cws 49 (+127)+4
bost 69 (-157)+7 RL 55 (+101)+5
Laa 64 (-149)+4
system totals
none today
Not used to playing so many dogs, like I did yesterday, so I'm happy enough to survive it. Second straight day I've missed my biggest bet (and missed the highest calls), once again preventing me from cashing in large. I haven't had a BIG winner yet in September, though I've been up for 3 of the first 5 days, including 2 straight. Even went 3-1-1 on totals so good to see some improvement there.
I had some trouble deciding whether to post a 64 or a 65 for that Angels contest; got a base 'cap of 66% on the game but I usually adjust them based on the latest performances; at a 65 it would actually be a aystem pick but with the Angels dropping a rare one at home, and the Indians now winners of 11 of the past 12, and with Byrd coming off of a shutout, I figure that a 64 makes more sense than the 65 or 66; Escobar has a CG shutout over the Indians in the only encounter this season and I have Byrd's rating still several points lower than that of Escobar's, not to mention a BP edge for the Angels (giving the edge at the plate to the Angels for this contest, too, as they're stellar with the sticks at home while the Indians OPS on the road is about 50 points lower than at home, plus the opposing pitcher's affect the offensive numbers and, as mentioned, Angels have the better SP going); should be a good game but I think that the Angels is the right call?somewhere between 60% and my call of 64% seems like a reasonable range for that game; going to try a piece.
There are, somehow, actually 2 system picks on tap despite the small board. Pirates look pretty good in this series and will be giving former 1st-round pick (1st overall, actually) Bullington his first start here. Maroth is one of those rare pitcher's who isn't excelling with a move from the AL to the NL?he's really been fade material as a starter for the Cardinals and he has been pounded hard, both times, during his recent work as a reliever. Looking over Bullington's minor league numbers isn't terrribly encouraging if you plan on backing him today: he was 11-9 with a 4.00 era on the year, but more discouraging than that is the fact that he has been pounded pretty hard over his past 3 starts (6.23 era over that time), going 0-3 in the process; he was 1-5 with a 3.94 era over his last 10 starts on the farm?his numbers from 5 of those games were pretty good and 2 more weren't too bad. Tough call as the Cardinals are a perfect 5-0 in games #4 of a series while the Pirates are 4-4. Over the 10 is a possibility but I'm not a fan of playing afternoon games over the total as, from what I've seen, most pitcher's seem to have better numbers during day games than night games (not always the case, but predominantly).
The safer, and more expensive, system pick is the Bosox. They've had little trouble with Olson in 2 August meetings and Garrett's 7.22 era appears to be well-earned, judging by the consistency of his poor outtings. Wakefield's recent back problems may be a bit of a concern but he was fantastic over his past 3 outtings?he's actually working on 22 consecutive scoreless innings. This is about as high a call as I'll get for a road team. My call (69%) is actually VERY conservative, believe it or not, as I penalized the Bosox a little for dropping the closer against the Jays and also reduced the Bosox offensive number due to Manny still being MIA (though the Bosox seem to still be producing, even without him). O's closer against the D'Rays should actually balance out any penalty for the Bosox loss Wednesday, but I'm satisfied with the adjusted call of 69%. O's used a couple of key long-men in relief Wednesday so I'm not sure what they do if (more likely, when) Olson gets rocked early. Looks like a reasonably safe place to put some money. Thought I might have to settle for the runline but the moneyline is always safer and the line really isn't too bad considering how much of a mismatch this one is.
Dodgers and Tigers plays would be crapshoots, in my opinion; only value might actually be on the Pale Hose, with Buehrle chuckin'.
No system totals today, but there might be some worthwhile team totals (Pirates and Bosox over come instantly to mind). I'll add a look at team totals to this thread a little bit later.
Here's lookin' for a 3-peat plus.
Will eventually post all picks. What happened to the Rockies sticks?
GL
