Thursday Service Plays? Mizzou?
- Thread starter Cactus Jack
- Start date
NSA
20 Lakers
======================
Dr. Bob
Thursday Analysis (no Opinion)
Minnesota (+7 ?) 86 L.A. LAKERS 93
The Lakers took advantage of a good situation and won game 3 by a 100-89 count, but my ratings favor L.A. by just 7 points in this game. Those ratings are based on all games this season for the Lakers when all 4 superstars have played, and Minneosta?s rating is adjusted downward a couple of points for Sam Cassell?s likely limited minutes (he played just a few minutes in game 2 with a bad back and missed most of the second half of game 3). The Lakers have played much better in the playoffs and using playoff games only would result in a fair line of Los Angeles by 10 points. However, I?m less confident in those short-term ratings and the Lakers? double-digit game 3 win could be explained by the 20-2 ATS situation that they were in. There are no situations favoring either team in this game, so I expect the Timberwolves to be more competitive tonight.
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WinOnBaseball
edit by admin:
Season record: 98-105 -18.84 UNITS
(Note: WOB is now 47-26, 64.3% on OVER/UNDER plays this season.)
Lines from Pinnacle current as of 10:53pm Pacific on 05/26/04.
Four plays for Thursday:
UNDER 8.5 LA (WEAVER)/MIL (SHEETS) -119 - 1 UNIT - 10:05am Pacific
The Dodgers have really been struggling, and Sheets has dominated their hitters in limited action against them. Their weak hitting conincides with somewhat of a breakthrough for Sheets, so I can't see the Dodgers scoring a lot of runs in this game. Weaver has looked good as of late also. His problem is giving up the big inning, but he usually settles down after that. LA's bullpen continues to peform well.
PHI (MILLWOOD) -146 over Atl (Wright) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Offense and pitching have both been clicking for Philly as of late, so this presents a pretty good matchup for them. Millwood faces a struggling offense in the Braves, and the Philly offense gets to go up against a struggling pitchier in Wright. Philly's bullpen has been great so far, with a 2.57 ERA.
OVER 9.5 SEA (MECHE)/CLE (WESTBROOK) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Meche has a pretty good dominance rate, but his control has been lacking. He will put runners on base, and Cleveland's offense should be able to take advantage. They have been dominant against RHP. While Seattle's offense has been quiet for most of the year, Westbrook is hittable, and their bullpen is truly ugly.
TEX (DRESE) +146 over CHW (Buehrle) - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
Drese turned in another fine performance in his last start. I don't think he'll keep this up, but I do think this is a pretty good price. While Texas' offense is not as good on the road, they are pretty good against lefties, while the Sox are not very good against righties. Buehrle has been kind of surprising with his strikeout rate, but I think Texas has a pretty good shot with Drese on the mound.
20 Lakers
======================
Dr. Bob
Thursday Analysis (no Opinion)
Minnesota (+7 ?) 86 L.A. LAKERS 93
The Lakers took advantage of a good situation and won game 3 by a 100-89 count, but my ratings favor L.A. by just 7 points in this game. Those ratings are based on all games this season for the Lakers when all 4 superstars have played, and Minneosta?s rating is adjusted downward a couple of points for Sam Cassell?s likely limited minutes (he played just a few minutes in game 2 with a bad back and missed most of the second half of game 3). The Lakers have played much better in the playoffs and using playoff games only would result in a fair line of Los Angeles by 10 points. However, I?m less confident in those short-term ratings and the Lakers? double-digit game 3 win could be explained by the 20-2 ATS situation that they were in. There are no situations favoring either team in this game, so I expect the Timberwolves to be more competitive tonight.
======================================
WinOnBaseball
edit by admin:
Season record: 98-105 -18.84 UNITS
(Note: WOB is now 47-26, 64.3% on OVER/UNDER plays this season.)
Lines from Pinnacle current as of 10:53pm Pacific on 05/26/04.
Four plays for Thursday:
UNDER 8.5 LA (WEAVER)/MIL (SHEETS) -119 - 1 UNIT - 10:05am Pacific
The Dodgers have really been struggling, and Sheets has dominated their hitters in limited action against them. Their weak hitting conincides with somewhat of a breakthrough for Sheets, so I can't see the Dodgers scoring a lot of runs in this game. Weaver has looked good as of late also. His problem is giving up the big inning, but he usually settles down after that. LA's bullpen continues to peform well.
PHI (MILLWOOD) -146 over Atl (Wright) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Offense and pitching have both been clicking for Philly as of late, so this presents a pretty good matchup for them. Millwood faces a struggling offense in the Braves, and the Philly offense gets to go up against a struggling pitchier in Wright. Philly's bullpen has been great so far, with a 2.57 ERA.
OVER 9.5 SEA (MECHE)/CLE (WESTBROOK) - 1 UNIT - 4:05pm Pacific
Meche has a pretty good dominance rate, but his control has been lacking. He will put runners on base, and Cleveland's offense should be able to take advantage. They have been dominant against RHP. While Seattle's offense has been quiet for most of the year, Westbrook is hittable, and their bullpen is truly ugly.
TEX (DRESE) +146 over CHW (Buehrle) - 1 UNIT - 5:05pm Pacific
Drese turned in another fine performance in his last start. I don't think he'll keep this up, but I do think this is a pretty good price. While Texas' offense is not as good on the road, they are pretty good against lefties, while the Sox are not very good against righties. Buehrle has been kind of surprising with his strikeout rate, but I think Texas has a pretty good shot with Drese on the mound.
winning points
CLEVELAND (Westbrook) -120 over SEATTLE (Meche)
The Indians may have found a reliable #3 starter behind
Sabathia and Lee. Jake Westbrook (+$190) has posted a
very respectable 3.31 ERA in his 5 starts this year, and should
fare well against a surprisingly bad Seattle team that has
floundered against righthanders so far (12-21, -$1320 with
only 3.7 runs per game). The Tribe on the other hand has
had no trouble with righthanders here at Jacobs Field (10-7,
+$385 with almost 6 runs per game) and Gil Meche has not
been effective (-$500, 5.69 ERA). Prices on Seattle are going
to start being more reflective of their true value, but the short
price on the home favorite is still a bargain.
====================================
Mejias Nba picks
Last night: 1-0 | Week to date: 3-0 | Playoff record: 58-13 (81.7 %) | Season record: 829-430 (65.8 %)
Thursday, May 27, 2004
NBA Regular Season
Los Angeles Lakers 89 Minnesota Timberwolves 85
=================================
Seagull Sports
50* Detroit Tigers/Kansas City Royals UNDER 9.5
20* Cleveland Indians/Westbrook -117
10* Minnesota Timberwolves/Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 183
=====================================
Mike Neri
THREE STAR: Minnesota +8 9:05 EST
THREE STAR: UNDER 182.5 Minnesota and La Lakers 9:05 EST
Minnesota w/Silva -125 Risk 1 Unit to make .80 Units 2:15 EST
Anaheim w/Washburn +110 Risk 1 Unit to make 1.1 Units 7:05 EST
Cleveland w/Westbrook -120 Risk 1 Unit to make .85 Units 7:05 EST
==================================
AAA Sports
1.5*Athletics, 2*Angels
Brian Smith
Reg-Dodgers, Rockies, Phillies
Cajun Sports
2*Dodgers
Earl Morgan
Reg-Reds, Cardinals, Royals, Athletics
Fixer Wins
Reg-Pirates, Drays
Frank Magliosa
1.5*Angels
Gateway
1*BrewersUnder, SeaUnder, Twins
Guaranteed
3*Rockies
Hardball Tech
Pass (Baseball)
LV Sports
10*Angels, Giants, Yankees
Private Players
3*Brewers Under
====================================
Boxer
Baseball - 951 Florida Marlins - B. Penny -119 ( 2* )
Baseball - 954 Milwaukee Brewers - B. Sheets -140 ( 2* )
Baseball - 963 Detroit Tigers - N. Robertson +100 ( 3* )
Baseball - 969 Oakland Athletics - M. Mulder +100 ( 3* )
Baseball - 971 New York Yankees - K. Brown -142 ( 3* )
Baseball - 976 Chicago White Sox - M. Buehrle -154 ( 2* )
CLEVELAND (Westbrook) -120 over SEATTLE (Meche)
The Indians may have found a reliable #3 starter behind
Sabathia and Lee. Jake Westbrook (+$190) has posted a
very respectable 3.31 ERA in his 5 starts this year, and should
fare well against a surprisingly bad Seattle team that has
floundered against righthanders so far (12-21, -$1320 with
only 3.7 runs per game). The Tribe on the other hand has
had no trouble with righthanders here at Jacobs Field (10-7,
+$385 with almost 6 runs per game) and Gil Meche has not
been effective (-$500, 5.69 ERA). Prices on Seattle are going
to start being more reflective of their true value, but the short
price on the home favorite is still a bargain.
====================================
Mejias Nba picks
Last night: 1-0 | Week to date: 3-0 | Playoff record: 58-13 (81.7 %) | Season record: 829-430 (65.8 %)
Thursday, May 27, 2004
NBA Regular Season
Los Angeles Lakers 89 Minnesota Timberwolves 85
=================================
Seagull Sports
50* Detroit Tigers/Kansas City Royals UNDER 9.5
20* Cleveland Indians/Westbrook -117
10* Minnesota Timberwolves/Los Angeles Lakers UNDER 183
=====================================
Mike Neri
THREE STAR: Minnesota +8 9:05 EST
THREE STAR: UNDER 182.5 Minnesota and La Lakers 9:05 EST
Minnesota w/Silva -125 Risk 1 Unit to make .80 Units 2:15 EST
Anaheim w/Washburn +110 Risk 1 Unit to make 1.1 Units 7:05 EST
Cleveland w/Westbrook -120 Risk 1 Unit to make .85 Units 7:05 EST
==================================
AAA Sports
1.5*Athletics, 2*Angels
Brian Smith
Reg-Dodgers, Rockies, Phillies
Cajun Sports
2*Dodgers
Earl Morgan
Reg-Reds, Cardinals, Royals, Athletics
Fixer Wins
Reg-Pirates, Drays
Frank Magliosa
1.5*Angels
Gateway
1*BrewersUnder, SeaUnder, Twins
Guaranteed
3*Rockies
Hardball Tech
Pass (Baseball)
LV Sports
10*Angels, Giants, Yankees
Private Players
3*Brewers Under
====================================
Boxer
Baseball - 951 Florida Marlins - B. Penny -119 ( 2* )
Baseball - 954 Milwaukee Brewers - B. Sheets -140 ( 2* )
Baseball - 963 Detroit Tigers - N. Robertson +100 ( 3* )
Baseball - 969 Oakland Athletics - M. Mulder +100 ( 3* )
Baseball - 971 New York Yankees - K. Brown -142 ( 3* )
Baseball - 976 Chicago White Sox - M. Buehrle -154 ( 2* )
OC Dooley
His baseball record:
5* 1-1
4* 6-5
3* 28-12
This is what he has today.............
3*Timberwolves
3*Orioles
3* Orioles/Yanks Under
His baseball record:
5* 1-1
4* 6-5
3* 28-12
This is what he has today.............
3*Timberwolves
3*Orioles
3* Orioles/Yanks Under
Hi Mizzou, do you have JB's 2* tonight he is (8-3 L11 1* or 2*) and Billy Coleman's two, 3*'s ( 9-3 L12) NBA. THANK-YOU in advance. :shrug:
Hey Cactus Jack
Marc Lawrence ha been awful lately. Do you play him or like to fade him?
ATB
Jim S
Marc Lawrence ha been awful lately. Do you play him or like to fade him?
ATB
Jim S
Big Al McMordie
Lakers - 7.5
=======================
The Sandman's 5% Thursday Afternoon MLB Best Bet Release:
# 953 LA Dodgers/Milwaukee (Weaver/Sheets) UNDER 8 (-115)
Please List BOTH STARTING PITCHERS for This Release.
RESTRICTED to UNDER 8 Runs or More ONLY (Olympic Offering
Please Invest at Under 8 to WIN 5% of Bankroll (1:07 PM EDT First Pitch)
Sandman GameTime Weather Intel: Mostly Cloudy, 40% Chance of Showers,
70 Degrees, Wind Out to Left 15 MPH (Miller Park Roof Closes for Inclement Weather)
The Sandman's 5% Thursday Afternoon MLB Best Bet Release:
# 956 St. Louis Cardinals (Suppan) -170 over Pittsburgh Pirates (Vogelsong)
Please List BOTH STARTING PITCHERS for This Release.
RESTRICTED to the Redbirds on the Straight ML Only (No Run Line)
Please Invest at -170 to WIN 5% of Bankroll (1:12 PM EDT First Pitch)
Sandman GameTime Weather Intel: Mostly Cloudy, 60% Chance of HEAVY
Thunderstorms, 82 Degrees, Wind Left to Right 12 MPH
The Sandman's 5% Thursday Afternoon MLB Best Bet Release:
# 963 Detroit Tigers (Robertson) Even Money over Kansas City Royals (Anderson)
Please List BOTH STARTING PITCHERS for This Release.
RESTRICTED to the Tiggers on the Straight ML Only (No Run Line)
Please Invest at +100 to WIN 5% of Bankroll (2:12 PM EDT First Pitch)
Sandman GameTime Weather Intel: Sunny, 84 Degrees, Wind IN from Left 11 MPH
The Sandman's 5% Thursday Night MLB Best Bet Release:
# 960 Philadelphia Phillies (Millwood) -145 over Atlanta Braves (Wright)
Please List BOTH STARTING PITCHERS for This Release.
RESTRICTED to the Fightin Phils on the Straight ML Only (No Run Line)
Please Invest at -145 to WIN 5% of Bankroll (2:07 PM EDT First Pitch)
Sandman GameTime Weather Intel: Cloudy, 74 Degrees, Wind Out to RC 11 MPH
The Sandman's 5% Thursday Night MLB Best Bet Release:
# 974 Cleveland Indians (Westbrook) -115 over Seattle Mariners (Meche)
Please List ONLY Indians SP Jake Westbrook for This Release.
RESTRICTED to the Tribe on the Straight ML Only (No Run Line)
Please Invest at -115 to WIN 5% of Bankroll (7:07 PM EDT First Pitch)
Sandman GameTime Weather Intel: Mostly Cloudy, 60% Chance of HEAVY
Thunderstorms, 72 Degrees, Wind OUT to Left 10-15 MPH (Gusty)
Lakers - 7.5
=======================
The Sandman's 5% Thursday Afternoon MLB Best Bet Release:
# 953 LA Dodgers/Milwaukee (Weaver/Sheets) UNDER 8 (-115)
Please List BOTH STARTING PITCHERS for This Release.
RESTRICTED to UNDER 8 Runs or More ONLY (Olympic Offering
Please Invest at Under 8 to WIN 5% of Bankroll (1:07 PM EDT First Pitch)
Sandman GameTime Weather Intel: Mostly Cloudy, 40% Chance of Showers,
70 Degrees, Wind Out to Left 15 MPH (Miller Park Roof Closes for Inclement Weather)
The Sandman's 5% Thursday Afternoon MLB Best Bet Release:
# 956 St. Louis Cardinals (Suppan) -170 over Pittsburgh Pirates (Vogelsong)
Please List BOTH STARTING PITCHERS for This Release.
RESTRICTED to the Redbirds on the Straight ML Only (No Run Line)
Please Invest at -170 to WIN 5% of Bankroll (1:12 PM EDT First Pitch)
Sandman GameTime Weather Intel: Mostly Cloudy, 60% Chance of HEAVY
Thunderstorms, 82 Degrees, Wind Left to Right 12 MPH
The Sandman's 5% Thursday Afternoon MLB Best Bet Release:
# 963 Detroit Tigers (Robertson) Even Money over Kansas City Royals (Anderson)
Please List BOTH STARTING PITCHERS for This Release.
RESTRICTED to the Tiggers on the Straight ML Only (No Run Line)
Please Invest at +100 to WIN 5% of Bankroll (2:12 PM EDT First Pitch)
Sandman GameTime Weather Intel: Sunny, 84 Degrees, Wind IN from Left 11 MPH
The Sandman's 5% Thursday Night MLB Best Bet Release:
# 960 Philadelphia Phillies (Millwood) -145 over Atlanta Braves (Wright)
Please List BOTH STARTING PITCHERS for This Release.
RESTRICTED to the Fightin Phils on the Straight ML Only (No Run Line)
Please Invest at -145 to WIN 5% of Bankroll (2:07 PM EDT First Pitch)
Sandman GameTime Weather Intel: Cloudy, 74 Degrees, Wind Out to RC 11 MPH
The Sandman's 5% Thursday Night MLB Best Bet Release:
# 974 Cleveland Indians (Westbrook) -115 over Seattle Mariners (Meche)
Please List ONLY Indians SP Jake Westbrook for This Release.
RESTRICTED to the Tribe on the Straight ML Only (No Run Line)
Please Invest at -115 to WIN 5% of Bankroll (7:07 PM EDT First Pitch)
Sandman GameTime Weather Intel: Mostly Cloudy, 60% Chance of HEAVY
Thunderstorms, 72 Degrees, Wind OUT to Left 10-15 MPH (Gusty)
winning points
8-1 last 9 NBA
UNDER the TOTAL (183)
Minnesota at LA Lakers*
Both sides hit a lot more 3-pointers than they
normally do in Game 3, which went OVER, but only
by 6 points.
Fouling Shaq makes the game longer and creates
time for more scoring opportunities, but Minnesota
forces the Lakers to be patient and work the ball
into him late in their possession, which helps to
offset the lengthening of the game. LA LAKERS,
87-80.
======================
MTi
Thursday 5/27/2004
ACTIVE TEAM TRENDS
Minnesota @ LA Lakers
The Timberwolves are 0-4-0 ATS since 2001/04/23 on the road when the O/U Line fewer than 190 points -- failing to cover by an average of -9.0 points: Advantage Lakers
The Lakers are 6-1-0 ATS since 2004/05/09 when the O/U Line fewer than 190 points -- covering by an average of 3.6 points: Advantage Lakers
The Lakers are 6-0-0 ATS since 2004/04/19 as a home favorite -- covering by an average of 8.6 points: Advantage Lakers
The Lakers are 7-0-0 ATS since 2004/04/19 after a game in which they shot less than 60% from the free throw line -- covering by an average of 8.2 points: Advantage Lakers
ACTIVE LEAGUE WIDE TRENDS
(not pertaining to any specific team, but rather the entire NBA)
The league is 84-47-2 ATS since 2001/05/07 at home when the O/U Line fewer than 185 points -- covering by an average of 2.9 points: Advantage Lakers
The league is 12-3-0 ATS since 2001/05/13 after a win in which they shot less than 60% from the free throw line -- covering by an average of 6.7 points: Advantage Lakers
===========================
Special K
Baseball: 7* White Sox
==========================
8-1 last 9 NBA
UNDER the TOTAL (183)
Minnesota at LA Lakers*
Both sides hit a lot more 3-pointers than they
normally do in Game 3, which went OVER, but only
by 6 points.
Fouling Shaq makes the game longer and creates
time for more scoring opportunities, but Minnesota
forces the Lakers to be patient and work the ball
into him late in their possession, which helps to
offset the lengthening of the game. LA LAKERS,
87-80.
======================
MTi
Thursday 5/27/2004
ACTIVE TEAM TRENDS
Minnesota @ LA Lakers
The Timberwolves are 0-4-0 ATS since 2001/04/23 on the road when the O/U Line fewer than 190 points -- failing to cover by an average of -9.0 points: Advantage Lakers
The Lakers are 6-1-0 ATS since 2004/05/09 when the O/U Line fewer than 190 points -- covering by an average of 3.6 points: Advantage Lakers
The Lakers are 6-0-0 ATS since 2004/04/19 as a home favorite -- covering by an average of 8.6 points: Advantage Lakers
The Lakers are 7-0-0 ATS since 2004/04/19 after a game in which they shot less than 60% from the free throw line -- covering by an average of 8.2 points: Advantage Lakers
ACTIVE LEAGUE WIDE TRENDS
(not pertaining to any specific team, but rather the entire NBA)
The league is 84-47-2 ATS since 2001/05/07 at home when the O/U Line fewer than 185 points -- covering by an average of 2.9 points: Advantage Lakers
The league is 12-3-0 ATS since 2001/05/13 after a win in which they shot less than 60% from the free throw line -- covering by an average of 6.7 points: Advantage Lakers
===========================
Special K
Baseball: 7* White Sox
==========================
