Thanks JT for the work. In your opinion what play looks the best to you, Under-Twins or Over-Braves? Thanks
Thursday & the Spotlight Game
- Thread starter JT Sneaks
- Start date
Sneaks,
As you know, I appreciate your work and need to say it more often - same as IE.
I circled the ATL over also due to the inconsistency of these pitchers. Perez was tagged for 4 ER in six innings nine days ago against MON. Also wondering about Armas, pitching six innings, 5 ER, 4BB's, and 2 tators last time out.
As far as CLE/MIN, I would not play against Radke. Also not convinced Colon's elbow is 100%. Colon threw some pitches Tuesday, supposedly with no pain. We'll see.
I'm playing Minnesota.
Keep up the great work Sneaks, just wanted to add a couple of tidbits.
kcwolf
As you know, I appreciate your work and need to say it more often - same as IE.
I circled the ATL over also due to the inconsistency of these pitchers. Perez was tagged for 4 ER in six innings nine days ago against MON. Also wondering about Armas, pitching six innings, 5 ER, 4BB's, and 2 tators last time out.
As far as CLE/MIN, I would not play against Radke. Also not convinced Colon's elbow is 100%. Colon threw some pitches Tuesday, supposedly with no pain. We'll see.
I'm playing Minnesota.
Keep up the great work Sneaks, just wanted to add a couple of tidbits.
kcwolf
Rapid Writeup
Houston @ Colorado -130 / 14.5O20
Let's attack this one backwards and look at the total first as it jumps out at you. Not only is it 14.5, but you get plus money for taking under suck a huge number. File this under looks to good to be true.
Trends on the pitchers would have you believe over...
Chacon
2-0 o/u last 2 starts
Reynolds
3-0 o/u last 3 starts
2-0 o/u last 2 road starts
0-3 o/u @ Colorado since 96 (except one
)
Weather looks horrible with a chance of T-storms in the area is always a good sign for the under if the game is shortened.
http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/USCO0105
the wind will be from the east / south east at 10 mph and below which is not good for under backers
when the wind is from the east the O/U is 4-2, and south east is worse as that is out of the stadium and the O/U is 8/5 (6/3 when the wind is below 10 mph.
Joyce behind the plate is a slight Over ump at O/U 59/51 in the last five years and his data is limited vs a higher number like 14.5
In a hitters park the ump has less of an affect on the total outcome, but the weather plays a significant role and the weather says over. The under looks to good to be true and it just may be.
Pass on the total
There is no need to tell me how bad the astros are on the road vs. the NL west because I know the numbers however I think they have the value in this one tonight as a very live dog. Reynolds has been pitching well of late and usually can control the rockies (LT:4-2, 3.69) I think the first look at Chacon tonight will be a good one, and I think the astro's steal one here.
Houston +120 Listed
hope it helps
JT
Sneaks
Houston @ Colorado -130 / 14.5O20
Let's attack this one backwards and look at the total first as it jumps out at you. Not only is it 14.5, but you get plus money for taking under suck a huge number. File this under looks to good to be true.
Trends on the pitchers would have you believe over...
Chacon
2-0 o/u last 2 starts
Reynolds
3-0 o/u last 3 starts
2-0 o/u last 2 road starts
0-3 o/u @ Colorado since 96 (except one
Weather looks horrible with a chance of T-storms in the area is always a good sign for the under if the game is shortened.
http://www.weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/USCO0105
the wind will be from the east / south east at 10 mph and below which is not good for under backers
when the wind is from the east the O/U is 4-2, and south east is worse as that is out of the stadium and the O/U is 8/5 (6/3 when the wind is below 10 mph.
Joyce behind the plate is a slight Over ump at O/U 59/51 in the last five years and his data is limited vs a higher number like 14.5
In a hitters park the ump has less of an affect on the total outcome, but the weather plays a significant role and the weather says over. The under looks to good to be true and it just may be.
Pass on the total
There is no need to tell me how bad the astros are on the road vs. the NL west because I know the numbers however I think they have the value in this one tonight as a very live dog. Reynolds has been pitching well of late and usually can control the rockies (LT:4-2, 3.69) I think the first look at Chacon tonight will be a good one, and I think the astro's steal one here.
Houston +120 Listed
hope it helps
JT
Woodpony....Under Twins, but tough call
KC Wolf....I've always been a fan of your work and that is why I wanted to do a spot light game to do a detailed writeup and and get opinions and I appreciate yours and welcome others....
Good point on Colon....
DogFace...yes..
Sneaks
KC Wolf....I've always been a fan of your work and that is why I wanted to do a spot light game to do a detailed writeup and and get opinions and I appreciate yours and welcome others....
DogFace...yes..
Sneaks
thanks for the cubbies this am. tried to steal one with the marlins over and got busted by the weather. lovin the angels, as usual, nice work.
JT, can I just send you my roll to bet for me
. You are smoking and I love your rationale.
My system of capping is very mathmatical and, though it has been profitable I keep having to adjust it, and it certainly does not have the detail you devlop and my knowledge is not as good. The problem I have is that I cannot typically follow your plays in that I do not get home till late. I usually run my numbers in AM before leaving for work.
Just wanted you to know I apprciate the time you obviously put into your capping.
LOL
Bill
My system of capping is very mathmatical and, though it has been profitable I keep having to adjust it, and it certainly does not have the detail you devlop and my knowledge is not as good. The problem I have is that I cannot typically follow your plays in that I do not get home till late. I usually run my numbers in AM before leaving for work.
Just wanted you to know I apprciate the time you obviously put into your capping.
LOL
Bill
