Thursday Throwdowns - Stats and Plays

[Randercity]

Oakland at TORONTO

The word for the day is UNDER!! Lidle has been on fire, going 3-0 in last three with an ERA of 1.12. Lyon in his only home start, pitched very well, giving up 4 hits and 1 ER in 7 1/3. He actually had bad luck vs ANA, as I watched that game and only about 3 balls were hit hard. EVERYTHING fell in for ANA, as they were more lucky than good. Oakland is winning with pitching mostly, and I see them doing that again today. The UNDER is 11-4 when LIDLE starts during the day, and is 8-1 in OAK's last ten. I'm also gonna take the A's to avoid the sweep here, as MONDESI will sit, and they A's will take advantage! TOR just 5-13 in Game 3 after a W.

OAKLAND -165
OAKLAND UN 9.5 -120

Kan City at BALTIMORE

I passed last time after KC lost two in a row after being on them both times, but not today. PONSON has been terrible as BALT is 0-5 in his last five with his 5.28 ERA. BYRD on the other hand has led KC to 4-1 record with his 2.03 ERA in his last five. BYRD is also 4-2 on the road with a stellar 1.53 ERA.
I went UNDER the NINE last nite when I saw it knowing we had UNDER UMP GORMAN behind HP today. He favors it 14-8.

KC +110
UNDER 9 -120

Wouldn't mind seeing a couple of ROAD WARRIOR wins today to start in a pair of pitching duels.

 

[Randercity]

as a side note, GORMAN also favors the HT 18-7, which is huge, but BALT is 0-7 in PONSON's last 7 starts, and 2-13 in Game 3 after a W. KC is also 4-0 in Byrd's last 4 starts...

 

[JT Sneaks]

I agree with your under in the O's game but I think Gorman favors the birds for more than just the fact that he favors the home team, the birds are 5-2 in the last seven games he has been behind the plate, and two of those wins was when ponson was on the hill. He has been behind the plate for KC in six games and they are 0-6, with byrd picthing one of those games. and five of those six games were on the road.

I know the game is off the board by the time you read this, but it is just food for thought.


JT

Sneaks

 

[Randercity]

Thanks JT... hope you're not just SHARING your WORMS!!

They may eat em on FEAR and SURVIVOR, but not here!!

Detroit UNDER 9 -120
T BAY Under 9.5 EVEN
T BAY +1.5 +120

 

[Randercity]

Forgot to post those earlier... WEAVER should come up and pitch well after the FIASCO in KC with Sweeney. Schoenweis is 4-0 vs DET, but can't go against WEAVER at home. Whoever wins this game, I see a hard fought low scoring one...

Lots of people on T BAY and RUPE did pitch a good game last outing vs MINNY. BUT, he's still 3-8 on the road, and I think HITCHCOCK is gonna settle in and pitch well today at home. I took the +1.5 +120 because I'm looking for a low scoring game, and I give TB a chance to win.

 

[Randercity]

Schoenweis is a pure GROUNDBALL PITCHER, and performs much better at home, where he has his "own" groundcrew to soften up the dirt around HP... with the rain in DETROIT, it should aid him greatly help keep this game UNDER, if they get started... IF you can still get on it, I would!

 

[Randercity]

PHIL OVER 9 -120

HOT vs Cold here... that's mainly the play. I love the way PHILLY is playing right now, and MILW is just going thru the motions it seems. QUEVEDO did well last time out on the road shutting down MONTREAL, but who hasn't been doing that without VIDRO! PHILS hot bats will get to him early I feel. FIGUEROA has been pitching fairly well, and he's getting lots of support. BUT, I can't lay 155 when it looks like the OVER is much better. PHIL BP is a bit overworked at the moment and Figueroa rarely goes more than six.... so unless PHIL has a big lead, I don't know if it'll stand. Could easily see another 8-6 type game here!

 

[Randercity]

Florida at SAN FRAN

Looking for SF SWEEP here in a high scoring game... BURNETT and ESTES walk alot of batters and neither is in very good form right now. AJ is 2-3 with 6.90 ERA in last five while ESTES is 2-3 also with 4.26 ERA. ESTES shot himself in the foot vs CUBS, walking and hitting people. His mechanics are off are something, BUT, he seems to like the friendly confines of PAC BELL where he is 6-2 with a fine 2.57 ERA. Our HP UMP is 8-14 O/U, BUT his games average 10 RUNS. That's all we need!

On games between 9.5 and 10.5 however, the OVER is 5-2. He also favors the HOME FAVORITE, -125 and UP, at 11-5. I'll go with the HOT HOME TEAM vs a poor road team, and look for some walks and cheap runs to boot!

SAN FRAN -155 & OVER 9.5 EVEN

 

[tedy]

RANDER BOTH UNDER'S IN REAL REAL DANGER!!!

 

[Randercity]

Dang... I can't get these THURS afternoon totals figured out... sheesh. O-3 already, and the game I play OVER, PHIL, gets seven in two innings and now a duel!!!

Montreal at L.A.

As I've noted before, L.A. is very streaky! They bombed MONT last nite, and I expect the same today. GAGNE is much better at home than on the road, and even though SHEFFIELD IS OUT, I'm on L.A. all the way! Can't see laying the -170, but I'll jump on the RUN line as the last ten meetings have ALL been decided by MORE than two runs!

L.A. -1.5 +110

 

[Randercity]

added SF -1.5 +125 on the other thread, so I'm sitting at 5-5 -.70 Units with DODGERS looking bad... well, I was right about one thing, doesn't look like the game is gonna end by less than 2 run victory, just had the wrong team!

Seattle at BOSTON

Taking SEATTLE here as they will be focused and BOSTON will be ????? CONE struggled last couple times out, and I don't see him getting healthy against the MARINERS. I also like this game OVER as SELE gives up 4-5 usually on the road, but gets good support. So... give me,

SEATTLE -130 and OVER 9.5 EVEN

Not touching the MINN/CLEV matchup...

 

[Randercity]

didn't get back to post the 8 pm, so here's my take on the 9 pm game.

Atlanta at COLORADO

CHACON has been coming around for the ROCKIES and MILLWOOD has been somewhat effective also. We have two struggling offenses going tonite, and although I imagine there will be plenty of fastballs thrown, I don't see them BOTH breaking out tonite.... this game looks UNDER to me!

UNDER 13 -120

That's it... see y'all FRIDAY! Time to get back to the NFL game on ESPN!

 

[thisisbad]

Figured this was as good a day as any to say to finally respond to that claim the other day that no one reads your thread

I'm a lurker who pops in everyday, and i always look for your thread. Agree or disagree with your plays, i always love the writeups, and they always give me good insight.

Today you had a rough day atleast totals wise, so i just wanted to say i love the thread and i check it and for you to keep it up. I figured it would mean more if i came in and did it ona so so day rather than just a great day. Does that make sense?

Anyway, thanks for the info and keep up the great posting.

 

[Randercity]

Hey thisisbad... thanks alot! Doesn't fatten my bankroll, but it's good to know there are people reading this... It sometimes takes me a real long time, especially when having connection problems, so it's nice to know someone is using it for info, to play, to fade, or whatever.

You were right on about the so-so day:

7-7 OVERALL -.35 Units
Totals 3-4 -1.40 Units
Sides 3-1 +1.80 Units
RunLines 1-2 -0.75 Units

But if thats my bad day for the week, I'll take it!