thursday totals

[loophole]

1-3 last night as two close losses end the winning streak; now 39-29 overall. today's plays:

mon/mil over 8-: a little speculation here as this is hp ump hollowell"s first game behind the plate this year, but last year he displayed a consistently small strike zone. both of today's starters have had some problems with walks, and if hollowell holds true today to last year's form his zone should be a problem for both of these guys. seems to be asking a lot of zach day coming off a 125 pitch outing in his last start, and everyone seems to be banging franklin around this year, especially in miller park. wind out to r/c @ 12 mph.

nym/stl over 9: the risk here is that the anemic mets won't chip in 2 or 3 runs, but they should get a few off of tomko. cards hit and score well in busch, where trachsel has a career era close to 5. may get rained out but, if not, stormy winds gusting out to left.


tb/min over 9: parris got hosed the only time he ever pitched to the twins and joe mays has managed to post a career 6.63 era vs the rays, if that's possible, as well as a career day era of 5.06. hp ump rapuano has been steady to the over. fwiw i dropped a unit on the rays @ 2-1 to salvage a game of the series today.


g/l and will be back tody with a few more.

 

[Bettinman]

Mont/Milw

Mont/Milw

No Wind - Roof Closed according to MLB.com

 

[loophole]

thanks, bettinman, missed the roof being closed at miller, but would have played the over anyway. thanks for the heads up.

i'm starting to have a complex about unders. seems like i've lost most all the unders i've been on lately even though i think that's where you usually find value. however, the numbers have been so dam* low lately it's starting to make me gun shy. i saw a lot of value in sf under this morning but for some reason couldn't pull the trigger. then i had decided to play the under in both tiger games, but again got cold feet. needless to say, it's got me psycho enough at the moment that, again, i've got nothing but overs for tonight:


phi/la over 7: i have a philosophical issue with a 7 total on any game featuring duckworth and nomo as starters.

tex/tor over 10-: all 14 home games at the skydome have gone over this year. i've bet on 6 of them and am not quite sure why i haven't bet the other 8. i'm trying to remdy that problem.

sea/nyy over 8-: the line move down from nine got me off the fence here. mussina has been lights out so far this year, but his era vs seattle is just a little under 4. pineiro's vs the yanks is just under 6. hp ump reliford doesn't really give the corners and that should affect both of these guys. wind steady out to left @ 14 mph.

oak/cws over 9: garland has been a gas can this year and oakland should handle him well. white sox should get theirs off of lefty halama, who hasn't done that well on the road this year.


glta

 

[loophole]

wow, as i typed the post above the second detroit under went down the crapper and the sf under just about did the same thing. guess that's why i'm a little freaky about them.


did want to throw up a side play that i'm making , though i won't count it in my totals record. i'm playing atlanta as a pick tonight with reynolds. needless to say, after being dropped this spring by the astros after years of solid service, this is a big night for shane, and his teammates will really want him to get this win. also, reynold's houston teammates complained bitterly when he was released about their own organization's lack of commitment to winning. i'm not really sure if the astros' hearts will be into beating him tonight. with the atlanta bats being much hotter than the astros lately, i like the braves tonight as a pick'em. g/l