weekend series
weekend series
BEGINNING FRIDAY JUNE 27
Colorado at Pittsburgh (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
What do we do with a visitor that can?t win on the road (Rockies only 10-25, -$1160 in that role) and a Pirates? team with a dismal 13-22 record at PNC Park (-$935)? One promising angle is the solid work of two young Colorado righthanders. Shawn Chacon has been phenomenally profitable (+$960) with the Rockies winning 12 of his 15 starts so far. His ERA of 4.10 is remarkable for a pitcher making half his starts at Coors field, and would be much lower if not for one ugly outings where he surrendered 12 earned runs. Jason Jennings has been a money-maker as well (+$580) and both should see action this weekend. BEST BET: Chacon/Jennings.
Chicago Cubs at Chicago W. Sox (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The White Sox have been plagued with inexplicably weak offense (.243 team BA, 2nd lowest in the AL), but their pitching is starting to come around (4.23 ERA, 4th best in the league) and the Cubs have become a liability to their backers (-$955) thanks to some lackluster play in recent days, including a poor showing vs. their cross-town rival at Wrigley last week (2-1, -$160). Avoid the beleaguered Mark Buehrle (-$1045) since the Cubs do well against lefties on the road, but jump on ace righthanders Bartolo Colon (3.93 ERA) and Esteban Loaiza (+$575, 2.15 ERA), both of whom are expected to be on the hill in this series. BEST BET: Colon/Loaiza.
Arizona at Detroit (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The D?backs have made a nice recovery, pulling themselves over .500 after a disastrous April and despite the prolonged absence of Randy Johnson and the more recent loss of Curt Schilling. Bad news for a Tigers? club that continues to set a new standard for abject futility (18-54, -$2230). Arizona is pitching OK (4.12 last 10 days) and those numbers will only get better vs. a team with a .225 team BA, averaging just 3.2 runs per game. They should manage to take 2 out of 3 without difficulty. BEST BET: Diamondbacks in all games.
Cincinnati at Cleveland (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
We look at those dreadful Cincy numbers (5.44 ERA, worst in the NL . . .248 team BA, 3rd worst in that department as well) and we tell ourselves that the Indians can take this team. But somehow the Reds have posted enormous profits vs. righthanders, so we?re forced to back off. On the other hand, the Reds have been weak against southpaws (-$370 overall, including a 2-6 mark on the road where they?ve averaged a sub-par 3.3 runs per game). C.C. Sabathia is tough as nails here at the Jake (5-2, +$280, ERA under 3.00) and will be on the mound in this series. BEST BET: Sabathia.
Florida at Boston (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Red Sox depended on pitching a lot the past couple of years, but the numbers just aren?t there in 2003 (4.95 team ERA, 10th in the AL), so they may have trouble keeping pace in the surprisingly competitive AL East. The Marlins won?t have an easy time at Fenway, but they have a potent weapon in rookie lefthander Dontrelle Willis (+$745, 2.38 overall ERA) who was not scored on in his last two starts. Boston?s numbers against southpaws (only 12-13, -$865) suggest they are vulnerable when he goes. BEST BET: Willis.
Montreal at Toronto (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The sizzling hot Toronto Blue Jays (7-2, +$490 last 10 days) took 2 out of 3 at Olympic Stadium last weekend and have a good chance to repeat that feat this weekend at Skydome. The Expos have been hit hard by the injury bug and it?s beginning to show up in the standings (2-8, -$620 last 10 days, with a 6.05 ERA among starters). Toronto scores nearly two more runs per game than does Montreal, plenty of support for the likes of Roy Halladay (+$975, 3.57 ERA) and Kelvim Escobar (+$375, 2.14) when they take the hill. BEST BET: Halladay/Escobar.
N.Y. Mets at N.Y. Yankees (4) 27th, 28th (DH*), 29th
A washout last Saturday means these teams will play a day-night doubleheader this Saturday, with the teams traveling back to Shea Stadium for the nightcap. The Yankees look to be back on track (8-1, +$590 last 10 days with a 2.71 ERA among starters) and they have historically done well against the in these regular season subway series. But the Mets rarely get swept, the pitching matchups are hard to predict, and we prefer not to lay high prices on the Yankees in the Bronx. We?ll check back on game day. BEST BET: None.
Philadelphia at Baltimore (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
Randy Wolf is having a breakout year in 2003 (+$675, 3.26 ERA), with the Phillies emerging victorious in 11 of his first 15 starts. He?ll get a chance to improve that mark against a Baltimore team that has struggled vs. lefties (7-10, -$450) and gets by with far less imposing pitching (4.99 team ERA,4th worst in the AL). The Orioles have been getting roughed up in inter-league play (only 5-10, -$440) and they?ve lost money for their backers here at Camden Yards (-$480). We?ll stick with the visitor?s ace lefty. BEST BET: Wolf.
Atlanta at Tampa Bay (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
We?d love to find a spot to use the Devil Rays at Tropicana Field, but they are sinking like a stone in the standings (24-49, -$1270 overall) and they?ve been forced to use 12 different starting pitchers already this year, but to no avail (5.06 team ERA, 3rd worst in the AL). The Braves are money-making machine (48-25, +$1710) and they should roll over this team without difficulty. But with prices likely to exceed a prohibitive 2 to 1, we?ll need a sweep to avoid a loss. Under the circumstances we?ll steer clear. BEST BET: None.
Texas at Houston (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Astros pounded the hapless Texas mound corp in three games at Arlington last weekend, pounding out 24 runs in the series sweep. The Texas ERA of 6.23 is 1.16 points higher than the league?s 2nd worst team and they?ve been horrible on the road thus far (11-25, -$735). Houston has the 4th best ERA in the NL, despite a host of injuries to the rotation. They?ve played well against the AL (10-5, +$510) and we?ll stick with them as long as the price don?t get too outrageous. BEST BET: Astros at -150 or less.
Milwaukee at Minnesota (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Brewers grabbed 2 out of 3 at Miller Park last weekend (+$160) and we may try our luck with them in the visitor?s role here at the Metrodome. Despite a less than stellar pitching staff, the Brewers have managed to make money vs. righthanders on the road (+$760) while the Twins have lost money vs. righties at home (-$370). These two rotations should yield a number of righty vs. righty matchups, with high prices on the underdog available throughout. BEST BET: Brewers when righty meets righty.
St. Louis at Kansas City (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Royals seemed headed for oblivion when their strong April gave way to a lousy May. But they?ve bounced back and now hold a 38-34 mark (+$1560), not bad for a team that lost 100 games last year. They took 2 out of 3 from the Cards last weekend and could pick up some additional victories here. We?ll avoid Morris & Williams, but the rest of the St. Louis rotation is in disarray. Don?t use the KC lefties, the visitor may have an edge in that spot. BEST BET: KC righthanders unless opposed by Morris & Williams.
Los Angeles at Anaheim (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Dodgers are hot (8-2, +$495 last 10 days and have chewed up their AL competition in head to head play (11-4, +$490). The Angels can?t seem to get on track (3-7, -$470 last 10) so it?s tough to use them. But the Dodgers are only worth playing against lefthanders, and Washburn, the only Anaheim southpaw, is not slated to see action. Given the visitor?s record vs. righties (-$490 with 3.3 runs per game) we?ll sit this one out. BEST BET: None.
San Diego at Seattle (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Padres needed a miracle to win a pair from the Mariners last week. They are the worst team in the NL by far (25-52, -$1790), and they lack a single starter who has proved to be consistently reliable (5.40 ERA, 2nd worst in the NL). We prefer to use the Mariners in day games (+$1455) or against lefthanders (+$1140), but right now it looks like they?ll be served a steady diet of San Diego righthanders. That means we?re limited to a play on the home team in Sunday?s afternoon contest. BEST BET: Mariners in day games.
Oakland at San Francisco (3) 27th, 28th, 29th
The Giants are 6-1 against lefthanders at Pac Bell Park, (+$460 with 6.1 runs per game) an important detail when a rotation loaded with lefthanders comes in from across the Bay. Also worthy of note is Oakland?s poor showing against righthanders (-$835 with just 4.7 runs per game). The A?s won a hard fought series at the Coliseum last weekend, but with the right setting we?ll be all over the home team this time. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. Oakland lefthanders.