alittle info
alittle info
BEGINNING THURSDAY JULY 10
Atlanta at Chicago Cubs (4) 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th
The Cubs have been steadily losing ground in the NL Central (only 3-7, -$470 last 10 days) after a very strong start, so it?s a terrible time to take on the team with the league?s best record (Braves 55-31, +$1635 in 2003). Even worse is having to face both lefthanders in the Atlanta rotation during this four game set. Horatio Ramirez has been a big bread winner so far (+$785) and Mike Hampton is coming off a solid outing vs. the Expos. Chicago has been a disaster vs. southpaws (2-8, -$1470 at Wrigley) but there?s a good chance they?ll be favored nonetheless. BEST BET: Ramirez/Hampton.
Philadelphia at N.Y. Mets (4) 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th
The Mets have a way of disrupting quality teams looking for an easy target, then falling flat against clubs they?re supposed to beat. The Phillies are case and point; New York holds a 4-2 edge in head to head play (+$410). But Al Leiter is sidelined until after the All-Star break and Glavine is not likely to take a turn, so the Mets cannot exploit Philly?s weakness against lefties. That leaves righty vs. righty matchups which greatly favor the visitor in day games (Phillies 7-3, +$375 on the road in that situation, Mets 4-7, -$435 at Shea). BEST BET: Phillies when right meets righty in day games.
BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 11
Florida at Montreal (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Marlins have pushed themselves three games over the .500 level (6-3, +$530 last 10 days) and they could knock the Expos out of third place with a strong showing in this series. That possibility will be aided by the return of Josh Beckett (3.28 ERA) and the ongoing excellence of Dontrelle Willis (+$700, 2.14 ERA), both of whom are slated for action here. The Expos are a feisty club, but injuries are beginning to take their toll. With their pitching corp depleted and Vladimir Guerrero sidelined until August, the visitor is poised to do some damage. BEST BET: Beckett/Willis.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
Getting swept in a three game set at home by the New York Mets isn?t what you want when trying to keep pace with three other teams in the NL Central. The Reds haven?t looked sharp (3-6, -$310 last 10 days) but it?s hard to get behind a Milwaukee team that has performed so poorly at Miller Park (16-29, -$955). Both rotations are in shambles (Reds 5.40 team ERA, worst in the NL, Brewers 5.13, third worst) so it?s hard to find spots we like. BEST BET: None.
Pittsburgh at Houston (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Pirates have picked up a tidy sum against lefties on the road this year (4-1, +$395 with 6.5 RPG) and if the rotation holds up they could be squaring off against Robertson in Sunday?s matinee. The Astros are only 2-4 vs. righthanders at home in day games (-$470) and will be even more vulnerable if Josh Fogg (+$355) is on the hill for the visitor as now appears likely. A super situation for the Bucs in any event. BEST BET: Pirates vs. Robertson in a day game.
San Diego at St. Louis (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
Matt Morris was forced out of his last start after five innings, so the beleaguered St. Louis mound corp (5.14 ERA among starters last 10 days) is once again proving to be the team?s undoing. Woody Williams (+$340, 3.06 ERA) should certainly be avoided, but the rest of the home team?s rotation is fair game. The Padres are profitable on the road vs. righties (+$375), while the Cards flounder vs. righties in all settings (-$795). We?ll get any number of chances given the lack of southpaws in this series, and the prices should be appealing. BEST BET: Padres when righty meets righty except vs. Williams.
Los Angeles at Colorado (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
As we indicated earlier, we never like to go against the Rockies at Coors Field (31-15, +$1500 so far) and with LA heading south in a hurry, we?re going to be all over the home team. The Dodgers are tough on lefties so steer clear if Colorado starts one. But righthanders have been a nightmare for the visitor (-$1755 with only 3.0 runs per game) and the Rockies are averaging nearly 2.5 more RPG than LA. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Dodgers.
San Francisco at Arizona (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Giants spanked the D?Backs early in the season (4-1, +$300) but Arizona has really turned things around, moving ahead of LA and into second place, just 5 games off the pace in the NL West. Their no-name pitching staff checks in with the 3rd lowest ERA in the NL (3.80), and once you get past Rueter & Schmidt, the options in SF are limited. But how can we buck that 24-13 (+$1125) mark the Giants have posted vs. on the road vs. righties? BEST BET: None.
Chicago W. Sox at Cleveland (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The White Sox have bolstered their lineup by trading for Carl Everett and Roberto Alomar, and their strong recent play (7-3, +$250 last 10 days) signals the possibility of a strong second half playoff run. But they?ll need to do better against the Indians, a team they?ve dropped a bundle to in earlier meetings (only 4-6, -$555). The Tribe has a tough one in Sabathia who?s likely to get a start, and Jason Davis is no slouch, though we expect he?ll miss this series. Otherwise their rotation is in disarray, so we?ll look to take advantage. BEST BET: White Sox unless opposed by Sabathia & Davis.
Boston at Detroit (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Red Sox are contending for a playoff slot, but they?ll need to keep beating up on the league?s weak sisters if they hope to win a ticket to the post season party. So far they?ve been perfect (4-0, +$400) against the hapless Tigers, who check in with an appalling 8-33 record at Comerica (-$1940). The Tigers will be fortunate to salvage a single victory against a team that has scored almost twice the total runs so far in ?03. But unless we see a price lower than 2 to 1 it won?t pay to get involved. BEST BET: Red Sox at -190 or less.
N.Y. Yankees at Toronto (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Yanks took 5 of the first 6 head to head meeting back in April, including a sweep at Skydome (+$300). But the Blue Jays countered with a devastating four game sweep in the Bronx in May. But now that the Yankees are back on track (won 16 of their last 21) and the Blue Jays are 8 back in the lost column, look for New York to exact a measure of payback from their division rivals (Bombers 29-14, +$675 on the road so far). BEST BET: Yankees in all games.
Kansas City at Texas (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Royals are the single biggest surprise in baseball going into the break at 47-39 (+$1855) and in first place, not bad for a 100 game loser one year ago. Their pitching may not hold up over the long haul, but they are still way better than the dreadful Rangers (6.03 ERA, worst in the majors), and we?ll use them any time they send a lefthander to the hill here in Arlington (Texas 9-22, -$980 vs. southpaws with only 3.9 RPG). BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Rangers.
Baltimore at Oakland (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Orioles have shown promise at times this year, but the Athletics are loaded with lefties, something the O?s haven?t been able to handle (8-14, -$750). Pass against the Oakland southpaws, but righty vs. righty matchups favor the visitor (Baltimore +$605, Oakland -$960 respectively vs. righties) and we?ll no doubt catch a very handsome underdog price when we get our matchup. BEST BET: Orioles when righty meets righty.
Minnesota at Anaheim (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
Both teams are in jeopardy of not making the playoffs after squaring off in the AL Championship round last year. The Angels have been a terrible favorite this year (only 22-24, -$1535 in that situation) and their numbers at home against righthanders this year are certainly not encouraging (-$540). The Twins are a solid road team (+$400) and they have a pair of righthanders (Lohse 4.19 ERA, & Radke 3.50 on the road) who are scheduled to go and worth taking as underdogs at Edison Field. BEST BET: Lohse/Radke.
Tampa Bay at Seattle (3) 11th, 12th, 13th
The Mariners look to us like the best team in the majors at the mid-point of the season, and we?d to use them against any lefthander (22-8, +$1240 vs. southpaws with 6.6 RPG), though it appears they won?t see any in this series. But Seattle has a terrible record at Safeco Field when taking on righthanders (-$895) and with prices likely to exceed 2 to 1, stealing even one game would make Tampa a profitable side. BEST BET: Righthanders vs. the Mariners.
good luck, going to take a week off
