Thursday

[JEFF]

Thursday night
Clemson +5.5, 3*
Clemson ML +190, 2*

I really believe Clemson wins this game. Classic case of two teams going in different directions. Clemson has underachieved last few years, but is finally starting to click. The running game is no longer non-existent with Yusef Kelley back in the mix. That was the problem all this time, but it may be corrected now.

NC State has been a big disappointment because of a terrible defense and injuries. Three more starters are out now, including Reid, the kick returner and DB. The DBs were already terrible, as is the run D. The #2 RB is iffy with an injury and McClendon is just getting back to health.

Clemson wants to keep winning and finally turn the corner under Bowden, who needs more big wins. They have the momentum after beating UVA last week. Meanwhile, NCSt should have lost to UConn at home. NCSt pounded Clemson on ESPN Thursday night last year, so there's even more motivation. The Tigers have a lot of extra confidence after last week. NCState's confidence and motivation are highly questionable at this point after being a preseason national title darhorse.

NCSt will put up some points, but I think Clemson will be much more balanced and far better on defense.

Col State/Air Force Under 52.5, 3*
Air Force has gone under 3 of 3 times becuse they run the ball like its going out of style -- 61 times per game. COl State runs the ball 41 times per game. The Rams will take their shots in the air with Van Pelt, but this is a solid Air Force pass defense. I think this is a slugfest of a conference game and should go under the total somehwat easily.

 

[JEFF]

FORT COLLINS - Colorado State football coach Sonny Lubick has a firm grasp of the task at hand when his Rams face Air Force: Stop the option attack, be patient on offense.

AFA coach Fisher DeBerry is equally clued in on the critical elements of facing CSU: Keep quarterback Bradlee Van Pelt and CSU's offense off the field, and batter CSU's defense with the option.

And the shortest distance between two points is a straight line, an airplane will get you from Denver to New York quicker than a cab, and Britney Spears will pose seminude on the cover of Rolling Stone magazine every six months or so.

Duh.

Back to the football game, which is tonight at Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium (8, ESPN2).

How?

How does CSU stop the second-most-prolific offense in the Mountain West Conference? How does CSU attack the stingiest MWC defense? How does AFA stop Van Pelt, who ranks 12th in the nation in total yardage (299 a game) and is the fourth-most-efficient passer in the country? And how do the Falcons plan to exploit a CSU defense that has allowed only 37 points in its past three games (14 of Utah's 28 points came off turnovers)?

Lubick and DeBerry spent the week trying to figure out those and many other things, though both men profess, at times, to being baffled by it all.

"I don't know where you attack them," DeBerry said. "I don't see any weaknesses."

Lubick has looked at the numbers - the Falcons average 297.4 yards a game rushing - and he sounds at once suspicious and confused.

"Fisher doesn't like to throw the football, as we all know," Lubick said. "He threw it 15 times last week to try to psyche us out. So he won't throw it at all this week. We are preparing for it anyway. He still makes you prepare for it. I just don't want him to get too overconfident. You know Fish would come out with some of those big, deep bombs on us, which he will do."

The coaches, both icons at their respective institutions, do this every year. They feign bewilderment, crack jokes, heap praise on one another, and then they send their teams onto the field to battle it out.

Lubick holds a 7-3 edge in the 10 seasons the men have competed.

Once the friendly gamesmanship is sifted out, both realize it comes down to the players.

Uncle Sam's team happens to be 6-1 and leading the Mountain West Conference with a 3-0 record. The agricultural squad up north is 4-3 overall and third in the conference at 1-1.

"They won the conference last year," Air Force defensive back Adrian Wright said. "We feel that in order to be conference champion, we have to beat the conference champion. We're looking at this as our biggest game of the year."

Every game seems to be the biggest game of the year for the Rams, who got off to a slow start, losing the opener to Colorado, then a blowout to Miami of Ohio on Sept. 20 and a heartbreaker to Utah on Sept. 27.

Since, the Rams have been nearly perfect, knocking off Fresno State 34-10 and obliterating Brigham Young - in Provo, Utah - 58-13 a week ago.

Lubick said then that no one should read much into CSU's dominance at BYU. "I got a feeling we'll be wishing we had about two of those touchdowns (against AFA)."

CSU's offense has been unstoppable, but AFA's offense eats so much clock, the Rams realize they will have fewer opportunities. Even the usually brash Van Pelt, who predicted CSU would "tear" apart BYU, said the Falcons' defense is unique. Nonetheless, Van Pelt's confidence has not waned.

"I'm not really concerned," he said. "I think they are the top conference defense because they don't get beat deep - they bend, they don't break. And the best defense is a good offense. You only get seven or eight cracks at them a game. I think they might stop us from making the deep balls, the 70-yard touchdowns. Either way, I think we'll have a solid game plan and move the ball."

Chris Pittman, one of Van Pelt's favorite targets, said the Rams must be prepared to grind.

"Patience is a virtue," he said. "Our initial game plan is to score on every possession we have, because we don't know how many we're going to get. If we get the running game going, things will open up from there."

 

[TDHEEL]

I like the play on the Clemson M/L, but it is a tough game to call since Clemson has been really an inconsistent team under Bowden. They have been following a pattern of winning impressively with a game where they disappoint. I agree with everything you said regarding Clemson being more balanced and I feel they can win this game outright. I do however feel they can be beaten and if they do, I think they will get beaten by more than one TD. They have been playing horribly on the national stage under Bowden (ie. NCSU last year, UGA this year, Maryland, Texas Tech last year). They also lack a kicking game so I figured if the kicker shanks one early, they will decide to go for it on 4th down in the red zone. How they convert on thse plays is what in my opinion can determine the outcome. NCSU allowed Texas Tech earlier this year over 700 yards of total offense but only allowed 21 points because of TT's lack of execution in the red zone. So for what it's worth, I think Clemson either wins the game outright, or gets blown away. GL to you, as I am on the ML as well.....

 

[SHOWRUNNER]

GL Jeff - let's get this Clemson play tonight - also think they can win outright...

 

[treynolds]

gl

really like all three plays

 

[BASON]

Nice info. Jeff.

Think I am going with the Over in this one. No way Clemson stops State's passing game and State's defense is suspect. See a close high scoring game.

Good Luck!

 

[Kdogg21]

Leaning towards Clemson myself. NC state hasn't really impressed me as of late.

Good luck tonight!!!

 

[JEFF]

ML Parlay:
Clemson +190
CSU -230
BoSox -120

1* to win 6.6*

 

[Antonio]

GL tonite brother !!

 

[gardenweasel]

like the parlay

like the parlay

take a look at utah/unlv if you get some extra time....i know unlv is having a nice year....but utah is really cranking....are particularly difficult on the road....have excellent balance with qb alex smith(603 yards and 5 td`s with no ints. the last 2 games and brandon warfield running the ball).....solid "d"......yet,i don`t hear much about them....i bought utah down to -1(half point)......leaning hard toward the hot club....this is a powerful little ballclub that`s physical enough to hang with the bcs boys and has enormous confidence right now....the number looks very favorable.....urban meyer is flat out one helluva coach....it`s obvious that his success at bowling green was no fluke.....he`ll be getting an offer from a major program in the near future....

 

[JEFF]

Weasel

I've looked a lot at that game and it's hard not to love Utah, isn't it. 6-0 ATS, a missed EO from undefeated, and incredibly consistent rushing, passing and defending. Meyer, like you said, is a hell of a coach. Hard to see them losing that game.


I'll probably play it, might even hit it hard, but it scares me a bit. Seems WAY too easy. That UNLV team, well you never know what you;re gonna get, maybe Vegas is expecting them to play like they did vs. Wisky and not like they did against AF or KU. :shrug:

Just seems like it should have been Utah -3 to 4, especially with the rate they've been covering spreads.

 

[gardenweasel]

i know

i know

particularly looking at unlv`s last 2(16-12 over nevada-but that looks a little better after the washington win) and the air force whipping.....maybe i`m getting suckered.....home field is important....no doubt....i`m just wondering just how good this utah team can be.....looking like the class of the mwc to me....i just noticed that fletch likes utah at -2.5....and he`s the resident unlv expert.....

i`ve been fooled before....it won`t be a revelation for me ....

thanks for the feedback....g.l.

 

[JEFF]

Clemson team total over 26 (-120), 2*

 

[pt1gard]

GL jeff

GL jeff

sorry clemson didnt convert 2 pter

lets get that BC game

take care
gregg

 

[gman2]

jeff:

thanks for convincing me to play the under in the csu game. i was leaning that way but can legitimately say you pushed me over the edge. thanks for the nudge. gl this weekend

 

[JEFF]

Thanks Gman2. That under was actually one of the luckier wins, but after Minnesota screwed me last Thursday I'll take it. GL this weekend.

 

[Iminforabuck]

Was set on playing the over until I read your write-up. What an unbelievable game. After the 1st....I was smiling. At Halftime it was gut wrenching....and it ended up coming through.

Nice call.....thank you