been going the wrong direction lately, so feel free to fade away.
miami (-2.5) 2 units. well, for one thing, it seems odd that the line is drifting up with miami down to their 3rd string qb. but is this really much of a drop-off? anyway, for me this boils down to one simple factor. maybe the bears offensive line has improved, but the few times i've seen them this year, they were awful. so i decided to check the bears' numbers against teams based on how the opponent ranks in sacks. the results completely backed up what i thought. against teams in the top half of the league in sacks, the bears are 1-4 ATS. against teams in the bottom half, they are 3-0-1.
the only game the bears covered against a team in the top half was against green bay. i looked at that game. wow. green bay committed 18 penalties. they had 21 first downs to 18 for chicago. but 5 of chicago's first downs were by penalty. green bay had 100 yards more in total offense and more than an 11-minute edge in time of possession. the bears scored 2 tds that game. one in the closing seconds of the first half and one on a punt return.
essentially it looks like the bears were completely outplayed in that game.
anyway, miami is ranked 11th in the league in sacks. :0008
miami (-2.5) 2 units. well, for one thing, it seems odd that the line is drifting up with miami down to their 3rd string qb. but is this really much of a drop-off? anyway, for me this boils down to one simple factor. maybe the bears offensive line has improved, but the few times i've seen them this year, they were awful. so i decided to check the bears' numbers against teams based on how the opponent ranks in sacks. the results completely backed up what i thought. against teams in the top half of the league in sacks, the bears are 1-4 ATS. against teams in the bottom half, they are 3-0-1.
the only game the bears covered against a team in the top half was against green bay. i looked at that game. wow. green bay committed 18 penalties. they had 21 first downs to 18 for chicago. but 5 of chicago's first downs were by penalty. green bay had 100 yards more in total offense and more than an 11-minute edge in time of possession. the bears scored 2 tds that game. one in the closing seconds of the first half and one on a punt return.
essentially it looks like the bears were completely outplayed in that game.
anyway, miami is ranked 11th in the league in sacks. :0008
