well, if you're a conspiracy nut who thinks vegas just likes to fuck with us... hammer fsu. 'cause they got just about all of us at madjacks to play the cards. obviously this line is BEGGING for fsu money. since I'm not a conspiracy nut...
Louisville (+3.5) 3 units.
Louisville (ML) 2 units to win 3.
under (52) 2 units. the under actually worries me more than anything else. it seems WAY too easy. the under is 6-0-1 in Louisville games this year. they appear to still have a great defense and their offense can't get out of its own way. but look at the offensive juggernauts they've played this year (scoring offense rank in parentheses):
Miami (53)
Virginia (72)
FIU (104)
wake (122)
Syracuse (109)
Clemson (45)
nc st (69)
fsu is 18th in the country, putting up 38 points/game. it's hardly a stretch to say that this is EASILY the best offense Louisville has seen this year. all that said, I'm sticking with the under. 3 reasons:
1) based on this line, clearly "they" are looking for fsu money. which means Louisville is very live tonight. and I just can't see the cards hanging in this game if it turns into a shootout.
2) obviously this is the game of the year for Louisville (yes, I know they go to ND in a few weeks). they're going to be fired up and they'll throw everything they got into stopping the noles.
3) and this is based on the nd game, which is the only fsu game I've watched this year, but Winston is nowhere near the same qb he was last year. I thought he looked awful in that game. and from what I've read, that's kinda how he's looked most of the year.
so I'm just going to go ahead and call the final score.... 27-20 Louisville. with Winston getting picked off at the goal line to end the game.
Louisville (+3.5) 3 units.
Louisville (ML) 2 units to win 3.
under (52) 2 units. the under actually worries me more than anything else. it seems WAY too easy. the under is 6-0-1 in Louisville games this year. they appear to still have a great defense and their offense can't get out of its own way. but look at the offensive juggernauts they've played this year (scoring offense rank in parentheses):
Miami (53)
Virginia (72)
FIU (104)
wake (122)
Syracuse (109)
Clemson (45)
nc st (69)
fsu is 18th in the country, putting up 38 points/game. it's hardly a stretch to say that this is EASILY the best offense Louisville has seen this year. all that said, I'm sticking with the under. 3 reasons:
1) based on this line, clearly "they" are looking for fsu money. which means Louisville is very live tonight. and I just can't see the cards hanging in this game if it turns into a shootout.
2) obviously this is the game of the year for Louisville (yes, I know they go to ND in a few weeks). they're going to be fired up and they'll throw everything they got into stopping the noles.
3) and this is based on the nd game, which is the only fsu game I've watched this year, but Winston is nowhere near the same qb he was last year. I thought he looked awful in that game. and from what I've read, that's kinda how he's looked most of the year.
so I'm just going to go ahead and call the final score.... 27-20 Louisville. with Winston getting picked off at the goal line to end the game.
