HAPPY NEW YEARS!!!
working on my second mimosa. 'cause I'm classy like that. and 'cause I gotta do something with the leftover cold duck. from 3 years ago.
today is the day that, traditionally, I start losing every bowl game in sight. and just when I finally got into the black, thanks to a good day yesterday. maybe I should only play totals.
Outback Bowl
Wisconsin (+7) 2 units.
Wisconsin (ML) 2 units to win 4. I really think this line is an overreaction to the big ten championship game. clearly Wisconsin laid down to give their fellow conference member a shot at the playoffs. no, I don't really believe that. but 59-0? what other reasonable explanation is there? anyway, it's hard to imagine auburn is truly focused on this game. they lost 3 of their last 4, including blowing a 12-point 2nd half lead to Alabama in the iron bowl. and their only win during that stretch was against samford. auburn was getting gashed on the ground down the stretch. not counting the samford game, auburn gave up 838 yards on 151 carries their last 4 games. that's 5.5 yards/carry. and it was even worse in the iron bowl, giving up 227 on 34 carries. not good, when you gotta face a pissed off Melvin Gordon.
on the other side of the ball, I have to expect Wisconsin's defense to show up after that embarrassing performance. nick marshall's erratic play lately should help that. as I keep mentioning, I put a lot of emphasis in bowl games on how a team has performed away from home. and a big part of that is usually qb play. here's marshall's splits:
home: 65.0% 9 TDs 1 INT
away: 56.5% 9 TDs 6 INTs
another stat I like to use is 3rd play, both offensively and defensively. in this case, defensively. Clemson was the best team in the country this year, allowing opponents to convert 27.4% on 3rd down. I'd say they looked pretty good in their bowl game. tcu was 2nd best, allowing 27.9%. I'd say they also looked pretty good in their bowl game. well, Wisconsin is #3 in the country, allowing opponents to convert 28.1%.
just to continue that line of thought, virginia tech, Nebraska, and penn st are #s 4, 5, & 6 in the country. 2 won SU as dogs and Nebraska covered.
barry alvarez is coaching today. his last game as head coach before he retired from coaching was the 2005 capital one bowl against... auburn. the badgers won 24-10. sounds like a nice score for today.
all that said, I am NOT happy with wagering on a big 10 team against the sec in a new years day bowl. not happy one bit.
working on my second mimosa. 'cause I'm classy like that. and 'cause I gotta do something with the leftover cold duck. from 3 years ago.
today is the day that, traditionally, I start losing every bowl game in sight. and just when I finally got into the black, thanks to a good day yesterday. maybe I should only play totals.
Outback Bowl
Wisconsin (+7) 2 units.
Wisconsin (ML) 2 units to win 4. I really think this line is an overreaction to the big ten championship game. clearly Wisconsin laid down to give their fellow conference member a shot at the playoffs. no, I don't really believe that. but 59-0? what other reasonable explanation is there? anyway, it's hard to imagine auburn is truly focused on this game. they lost 3 of their last 4, including blowing a 12-point 2nd half lead to Alabama in the iron bowl. and their only win during that stretch was against samford. auburn was getting gashed on the ground down the stretch. not counting the samford game, auburn gave up 838 yards on 151 carries their last 4 games. that's 5.5 yards/carry. and it was even worse in the iron bowl, giving up 227 on 34 carries. not good, when you gotta face a pissed off Melvin Gordon.
on the other side of the ball, I have to expect Wisconsin's defense to show up after that embarrassing performance. nick marshall's erratic play lately should help that. as I keep mentioning, I put a lot of emphasis in bowl games on how a team has performed away from home. and a big part of that is usually qb play. here's marshall's splits:
home: 65.0% 9 TDs 1 INT
away: 56.5% 9 TDs 6 INTs
another stat I like to use is 3rd play, both offensively and defensively. in this case, defensively. Clemson was the best team in the country this year, allowing opponents to convert 27.4% on 3rd down. I'd say they looked pretty good in their bowl game. tcu was 2nd best, allowing 27.9%. I'd say they also looked pretty good in their bowl game. well, Wisconsin is #3 in the country, allowing opponents to convert 28.1%.
just to continue that line of thought, virginia tech, Nebraska, and penn st are #s 4, 5, & 6 in the country. 2 won SU as dogs and Nebraska covered.
barry alvarez is coaching today. his last game as head coach before he retired from coaching was the 2005 capital one bowl against... auburn. the badgers won 24-10. sounds like a nice score for today.
all that said, I am NOT happy with wagering on a big 10 team against the sec in a new years day bowl. not happy one bit.
