Thursday

[Smitty]

well, having a week and a half off during bowl season has been terrific, even if i had the flu the entire time. but i gotta go back to work tomorrow, so posting these now...

Birmingham Bowl

bc 1st H (+4) 3 units
bc (+7.5) 3 units
bc (ML) 2 units to win 4.6. taking a shot against an unmotivated cincinnati team. 5 weeks ago, they were 10-1 and preparing to play memphis with a chance at the cotton bowl. now they are 10-3 and playing a 6-6 boston college team in the birmingham bowl. a bc team without its best qb (brown was lost for the season a while ago) and its best rb, as dillon is sitting out for, you know, draft prep. (side note - i don't care how many announcers say it's fine for these guys to sit out these games. fuck that. it's a huge slap to their teammates. "hey, i'm too good to play in this game. but you go right ahead, scrub.") luckily for bc, david bailey has been pretty good.

cincinnati only beat one bowl team by more than 7 points all year, and that was marshall back in september.

bc has only lost to two bowl teams by more than 7, and that was clemson and notre dame.

i'm kinda glad i'll be at work and unable to watch at least the first half, because it's going to be painful, rooting for bc. eh, who am i kidding? i'll watch some of it on my phone. ugh.

 

[Smitty]

Gator Bowl

Gator Bowl

quick note... you know what? i'm going to add two units on the over (55) in the birmingham bowl, just because it makes no goddamn sense and that angle seems to hit a lot in bowl games.

indiana (ML) 4 units to win 4.6. this is definitely more than i should put on this game. but we're getting late in bowl season and, fuck it, it's only money.

indiana doesn't really have any bad losses this year. ohio st, michigan st (sparty kicked the game-winning fg with 5 seconds left), penn st, and michigan. tennessee has two bad home losses, but they were the first two games of the year (georgia st and byu). neither team really has a "good" win this year. indiana hasn't beaten a single bowl team.

this is really a gut play. i like what i've seen from the hoosiers this year. admittedly, i haven't seen much of tennessee since the byu game. i like ramsey at qb. oddly, he's been better away from home this year. almost identical comp. %, slightly better yards/att, and 7 TDs with 1 INT, vs 6 & 3 at home.