Thursdays Leans

[Skipper]

Wednesday 3-3

Well the good news is that I didn't lay an egg on my first post. The bad news is that I didn't win any money, but there's always the next game, right?!

G. Tech-1
This is the obvious choice here as the Jackets are winning ACC games at home by an average of over 15ppg. Wake is a decent road team and the a$$ raping they took at Maryland scares me a bit. However, I will stay with Tech at home and hope they continue their winning ways.

Loyola Chicago-1
Suck on the road, but they are playing at home tonight where there only loss was a 1 point tough one to Wisc.-Milwaukee. This team beat Butler at home by 10 a week a go and have won 3 in a row since losing on the road at Youngstown.

Austin Peay+3
The Govs are red hot winning 9 in a row and cashing in 8 of those 9.(I have won on 7 of those 8). The only non-cover was a 15 point win against TSU with the woman AD in charge. Domercant scored 38 points at APSU and it still wasn't enough. EIU is tough at home, but I can't leave a team that has kept me afloat!!
LET"S GO PEAY!!!

Morehead St.-11
This one is one that I may stay away from. Morehead won by 23 at Martin earlier in the year. Why would they not win by 11 at home? Two things scare me about this one. The first is that the Racers of Murray St. are coming to town on Sat. and this one has look ahead all over it. The second is that they only won by 2 at home over a pathetic EKU team on Sat. Will probably still bite, but might wait and see where the line goes.

Still looking at:
Murray St. -8
Akron -1(it's hard to go against Hellah)
Denver -4-(they have bitten me too many times though)

Thanks for all the help, any other insight is appreciated.

 

[Skipper]

Adding:

ULLafayette-3
This line did not catch me at first, but ULL is on a roll winning 8 in a row and 5 of those on the road. Arkansas State just an average team at home and 4-7 in the conference not quite good enough for ULL tonight.

Still looking at Denver-5. Any thoughts on this game? South Alabama coming off four straight losses and lost to weak Florida International team at HOME by 10 last week. Denver looks like the play, but they have bitten me lately.

Thanks D-ROCK on the heads up with ULL!!

 

[ststrl]

I like the Loyola Chicago Ramblers, now at a PK at some places. Detroit is a solid team, however Loyola is very good at home and something tells me Detroit is a little more focused now travelling across the country on Saturday to play @ UCSB. Gonna wait this line out, but Loyola up to -2 sounds goods to me. Winner moves into 4th place in the surprisingly soild Horizon league.

 

[superbook]

I was looking at that Morehead State game myself.

T-M shot terribly in that first game: 38% from the field including 3-24 from the arc. T-M isn't a great shooting team but even for them that was especially poor.

Morehead State is 0-5 ATS at home which may be why this line may is what it is.

T-M doesn't play much D allowing opponents in their L5 to shoot 52% from the field.

Morehead State should have no trouble scoring points: they're averaging 86 ppg at home and shooting 52% from the field including 48% from the arc in their L5.

Ricky Minard should score 30 or so vs weak T-M defense.

T-M is averaging 74 ppg on the road on just 44% FG shooting.

I like Morehead State to cover the 10.5 here. I don't see T-M solving their shooting problems on the road vs a better team. FWIW the early Vegas line was 12.

- Jon

 

[pistol229]

Morehead

Morehead

With you guys on Morehead. Martin was playing good ball but how they respond to the E ILL loss will be interesting. They have been a pretty poor road team and now the motivation could be gone.

I respect the possibility of the look-ahead as I think everyone in the OVC circles Murray ST because of their dominance, but a closer look at the standings shows Murray 4 games out of first and not even in the mix.

Morehead needs to stay pace ahead of AP

Thinking the AP ship halts tonight too - like E ILL.

 

[Skipper]

Pistol,

What's your reasoning on EIU. They are decent at home and I know all runs come to an end, but why tonight? I am pretty good at this conference and the SoCon as well. Been following Hawkeye's picks close as he also does very well in these two conferences.

 

[mansa_musa]

My leans

My leans

Detroit PK
Was hoping to get 2 or more. Loyola 7-0-1 ATS @ home, so why is the line this low? Two of last 3 opp. have shot way over 50% in the Ramblers gym -- Wisc GB took Loyola to OT before losing by 11, Wisc Mil won there by 1 pt despite missing 15 ft's. Loyola shtg about 27% behind the arc @ home in conf play.
Titans are 4-1 SU their last 5 conf road games. I think Detroit focuses on this game because the 4th spot in the Horizon gets a home game in their tournament.

GT/Wake O149
Tech has scored in the 80's in majority of their home games. Wake 4-2 O/U on the road this year. Tech shoots alot better at home & hopefully the Demon Deacons follow along.

Still studying West Coast games.

 

[taker02000]

Hey Skipper......

Hey Skipper......

Picks look good so far---I would worry a bit about GT....Up to 2' at most books. Denver is nails at home so the 4' looks pretty good as well. If you talk to D-Rock before 7:00, tell him to message me after 4:30.


Thanks,

Taker

 

[pistol229]

Skipper

Skipper

Not sold on it but think E Ill is still playing so I don't think they lie down especially at home.

More so, AP finally looked mortal last game.

Nothin special here - just an opinion. I will play it for small.

Good luck.

 

[superbook]

Agree on must win for Morehead State. If they win this game then Murray State is less meaningful, esp if AP gets beat.

Only concern I have is MS covering the double digits. Might be stupid but I bought the line down a point to 9.5.

gl

- Jon

 

[superbook]

Morehead State should have no trouble scoring points: they're averaging 86 ppg at home and shooting 52% from the field including 48% from the arc in their L5.

That was an understatement.