02:10 PM [902] MIL BREWERS +122 ( K MAEDA -R / Z DAVIES -R )
01:05 PM [909] TEX RANGERS +133 ( A GRIFFIN -R / M PINEDA -R )
02:10 PM [912] CHI WHITE SOX -155 ( T MILONE -L / C RODON -L )
1 unit bet pays 7.51 ....betdsi line .. evening parlay later (Clev, Cubs, Det, STL, Oakland?)
MLB parlays: 9-91, -18.86 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
:0074
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
It wasn't much of a secret that I was really high on Michael Pineda in the preseason. After a 2015 season that indicated major breakout was ahead with luscious K/BB numbers and FIP/xFIP on his side. The first two months of 2016 have been disastrous and how could we possibly continue the faith in Pineda? Well after last night's 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks, Pineda now holds a 3.00 ERA (2.46 FIP, 2.55 xFIP, 2.72 SIERA), 11.50 K/9 and 1.150 BB/9 in his last five starts. Sure, three were against the Twins (2x) and Angels, but he also squared up against the Tigers twice. I'm not saying that this means he's giving you Top 25 production the rest of the way. What I'm saying is that he's earned a near 15% whiff rate and 40%+ O-Swing rate and looking much better than his earlier self. I'd be getting on the train as he faces the Rangers/White Sox/Indians ahead and see what happens.
Michael Pineda's 5.51 ERA is an obvious deterrent, but there's potential value here if you look for it. Not only does the 27-year-old sport a top-10 whiff rate (10.4 K/9), but he's also shown some positive trends in June, posting a 3.00 ERA over five starts. With the Rangers, a team that's below average against righty pitching, on tap, Pineda is set up to succeed on Thursday.
One of the most enticing matchups of the day belongs to Carlos Rodon. The southpaw draws a home start against the Twins, who are one of the worst teams in the AL against left-handed pitching and strike out 25 percent of the time. For his part, Rodon is whiffing a batter per inning and has allowed more than two earned runs just once in his last seven outings.
I need to dig deeper into Carlos Rodon. After going 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks last start, his last seven starts have now produced a 3.24 ERA (only one start above 2 ER), a strikeout per inning, and just one outing above 2 walks. Has there been a major adjustment or is this just noise? Well, his velocity has gone up in that time (92.88 mph on May 4th, 95.08 mph last start), and he's getting more whiffs with his Slider (~15.8% in April/May, 24.8% in June). Definitely good signs for the kid. The biggest change is a 22 point jump in swing percentage for his Slider, despite throwing it for a strike just a five points more. That's a huge change as it leads to fewer walks and more chases out of the zone. That Slider has clearly improved - 88.64 mph last start, up from about 85 mph in early May
Steven Matz - 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. This might be the weirdest start we've seen all year. Matz was cruising through four like he's in the USA, then it all fell apart. Cespedes lost a ball, singles and doubles were all up in this, and then a three run shot. Oh, then of course there were no walks or strikeouts, because that would be too normal. Now there is word that Matz's elbow is flaring up again, but it really doesn't seem like that inning was to product of an irate elbow. That totally sounds like a band name. Yeah I'd see the shiz out of Irate Elbow.
Steven Matz, who is dealing with a bone spur in his pitching elbow, had his next start pushed back from Wednesday to Thursday...The Cubs are a top-five team against left-handed pitching and lead the majors in walk rate (11 percent), so the Mets' lefty will have little margin for error. That said, the door is open for Matz as the Cubs are whiffing at a 24.3 percent clip in June, while Matz is striking out nearly a batter per inning.
The Mets low scoring offense is only averaging 3.61 runs per game, placing them 28th overall, and are hitting .234 as a team. The New York pitching has been outstanding, boasting a 3.37 team ERA, good for third in the Majors.
Chicago Cubs are 12-3 in their last 15 games against a left handed starter.
Foltynewicz will be making his first start since an MRI exam completed on June 1 showed a bone spur in his right elbow. Instead of risking the possibility of incurring a significant injury while altering his mechanics to minimize the elbow discomfort, the 24-year-old right-hander opted to go on the disabled list. He completed five pain-free and scoreless innings while limiting Charlotte to one hit in his first rehab start for Triple-A Gwinnett on Saturday night.
Young really struggled in his last outing, giving up seven runs in 2 1/3 innings against the Astros. He walked four batters in that game for the second time in June and was pulled after 67 pitches. He's given up a homer in every start this season.
This probably goes without saying, but don't go chasing Chris Young and his 9.2 K/9 rate on Thursday. The right-hander owns a 7.79 ERA in June and a 9.70 ERA on the road this season. The Cardinals, who sport an MLB-best 119 wRC+ versus righties this year, won't go easy on him.
Royals are just 7-21 in their past 27 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
The home side counters with Mike Leake (5-5, 4.25) who was shelled for five runs off nine hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to Seattle on Saturday, striking out one and walking two. Leake?s 1.24 WHIP to go along with just 59 K?s in 91 frames of work leaves everything to be desired. With these two inconsistent starters going head-to-head in this interleague contest, the OVER does indeed become worthy of a second look in this particular matchup.
Dillon Overton - 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. What I did like was that he threw a good amount of strikes and had a decent near 10% whiff rate. His ER came off the long ball and he was...fine. But he also faced the Angels and doesn't present a ton of upside. I'm not ready to give him to dreaded Cup of Schmo label, but I wouldn't get too excited.
Los Angeles @ MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE +117 over Los Angeles
Had it not been for a bizarre series of plays in the opener of this series on Tuesday, the Dodgers would be down 0-2. L.A. took the opener 6-5 but lost last night, 7-0. The Dodgers are now 43-37 on the year so let?s put that into a little more perspective. When Clayton Kershaw starts, the Dodgers are 14-2. When Clayton Kershaw doesn?t start, the Dodgers are 29-35. Taking it a bit further, when Clayton Kershaw doesn?t start on the road, the Dodgers are 12-21. In other words, the Dodgers chances of losing are higher than their chances of winning when Kershaw doesn?t start.
With a 2.91 ERA after 15 starts, Kenta Maeda has put up some pretty sweet numbers so far.While his base skills are good, Maeda stands some significant risk of regression. His favorable 26% hit rate and 80% strand rate likely will normalize. When that happens, his 3.70 xERA is a more likely level of where his ERA will end up. We may also be seeing signs of fatigue. Remember, Japanese starters go once every six days. Maeda is about halfway through the year going once every five days. The first sign of fatigue is losing the strike zone and Maeda?s first-pitch strike rate in his last start was just 43%. He lasted just five frames. It?s also his second go around, which is always tougher than the first time around. Maeda has 89 MPH heat. He has some nice movement on his secondary stuff but again, we can?t completely trust it in such a small sample size. MLB hitters make adjustment quickly and while Maeda may very well throw a good game here, we would not trust him or the Dodgers enough to be spotting a price on the road.
Zach Davies is every bit Maeda?s equal. Davies has 65 K?s in 75 innings. He relies heavily upon an 89 mph sinker. However, his best pitch, a change-up, continues to draw plenty of swings and misses (22%). His control was sketchy a year ago, but he has made notable progress in 2016. He has a history of inducing a lot of groundballs (near-50% throughout minor league career). Though his groundball rate has slipped so far in 2016, he has maintained a groundball lean. Davies has been a pleasant surprise through his first 13 starts of 2016. A lack of overpowering stuff doesn't afford the 23-year-old much margin for error, but he has done a decent job of mixing his pitches and keeping hitters off balance. Perhaps most importantly, Davies has a ton of confidence now in knowing he belongs. He has 36 K?s over his last 33 frames with just six walks issued. That?s a 6-1 ratio to the good. He also has a 1.64/2.84 ERA/xERA over that span. Davies is coming on big time while Maeda is showing signs of fatigue but the line reflects neither.
Cleveland @ TORONTO
Cleveland -1? +140 over TORONTO
Carlos Carrasco?s ERA doesn't show it, but he had a strong encore last year to his 2014 breakout. Carrasco handled his innings pitched jump just fine too. His high groundball rate and high swing-and-miss percentage are both well-established now and his first-pitch strike rate says his pinpoint control is legit. Carrasco hit the DL late last year with a sore shoulder but he returned with 15.1 K?s/9 in September. This year it?s much of the same with a 2.73 ERA, a 52% groundball rate, a 12% swing and miss rate and 95 MPH heat. Carrasco has a BB/K split of 13/49 in 56 frames. It?s hard to find a flaw in these metrics so we are not going to hesitate to back him in an evenly priced game when he?s pitching for the hottest team in the majors and he?s up against R.A. Dickey.
The old knuckleball. We have discussed that crazy pitch before and nothing has changed in that there is not a lot to be said about it. The knuckleball is either dancing or it?s not. It?s not a pitch you can sit on either because even if a hitter knows it?s coming, it still flutters and could end up anywhere in or out of the strike-zone. Derek Jeter once said about the knuckleball after another frustrating day against it, ?I don?t think HE (referring to the pitcher) even knows where it?s going?. That about sums it up for the knuckler. It?s a freak pitch thrown by guys that were or are desperate to make it to the big leagues. There isn?t a person on Earth that can predict how the knuckler will hold up from game to game but when it doesn?t hold up, the pitching lines are ugly. With a knuckleball pitcher, there is no such thing as ?working through your bad stuff?. Knucklers either get whacked or they do not.
We would much rather roll the dice with an ace in an evenly priced game. We would much rather roll the dice with said ace that is pitching for a team as hot as the Indians are right now. Let is also remind you that Toronto is coming off a trio of long days playing in the high altitude of Colorado. Tuesday?s game ended at 3:30 AM EST and it was followed by a matinee game yesterday. The Blue Jays are not used to playing in Colorado and while they won the final two games, the effects of playing in Denver may be present tonight.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White SoxT
Play: Chicago White Sox -158
Chicago southpaw Carlos Rodon has compiled at least seven strikeouts in each of his last three outings and toes the rubber Thursday afternoon with a 9.07 K/9 rate and 22.8% K%. Rodon is gradually becoming one of the best young arms in baseball despite owning a 2-6 record with a 4.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP this season. The 23-year-old's peripherals are very strong, but he has been hampered by an extremely unlucky .346 BABIP. Once his hit rate regresses closer to what he posted last season (.315 BABIP), Rodon's surface statistics will begin to reflect his true talent level.
Rodon owns a 2.64 ERA in day games, a 2.75 ERA versus division opponents and a 3.00 ERA over his last three starts. He also owns 3.78 FIP at home (4.34 ERA) and a 3.70 FIP in June (3.75 ERA) where he boasts a 26.9% K% and 19.2% K-BB%. However, Rodon has been hampered by an unsustainable .397 BABIP this month so his value in the betting market is artificially depressed. Let's also note that the talented lefty is 1-0 with a career 1.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP versus the Twins, including a six-inning shutout performance on April 13.
Rodon's success should continue against an anemic Minnesota lineup that is averaging 3.9 runs per game on the road (.231 AVG.; .294 OBP; .674 OPS), 3.8 runs per game in afternoon contests (.234 AVG.; .298 OBP; .675 OPS) and 3.5 runs per game versus division foes (.237 AVG.; .300 OBP; .659 OPS). The Twins rank 27th in runs scored (306; MLB average is 345), 24th in OBP and 22nd in OPS. Rodon is also supported by a very good Chicago bullpen that owns a 2.31 ERA at home, a 3.36 ERA in day games and a 3.15 ERA over the last seven games.
In contrast, Minnesota's bullpen has really struggled away from Target Field where it owns a 5.31 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 122 innings this season. The Twins' relief staff also has a 5.02 ERA and 1.59 WHIP versus division foes and a 4.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP overall in 2016. Meanwhile, Minnesota soft-tosser Tom Milone posted a 5.40 ERA and 4.96 FIP in April and an 8.10 ERA and 6.76 FIP in May before being sent to Triple-A Rochester. Like last year, Milone excelled in the Minors where he posted a 1.66 ERA with 41 strikeouts and four walks in 48 2/3 innings with Rochester.
In his first start since being recalled from Triple-A, Milone threw 41 of his 77 pitches for strikes and only lasted 3 2/3 innings. The 29-year-old is now 0-2 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 23 2/3 Major League innings this season. In his most recent trip to U.S. Cellular Field (9/12/15), Milone gave up 7 runs (4 earned) on eight hits in just 3 2/3 innings of work. From a technical standpoint, the Twins are a money-burning 10-27 in their last 37 road games (1-4 in Milone's L/5 road starts), 8-21 in their last 29 in game 3 of a series, 12-41 in their last 53 games following a loss and 6-23 in their last 29 division games.
Minnesota is also 9-26 as a road underdog this season, including 3-20 as a road underdog of +150 or less and 1-12 as a road underdog of +125 or less. Finally, the White Sox are 16-7 in their last 23 games versus .399 or worse opposition, 4-1 in their last five games versus southpaws and 7-1 in their last eight meetings with Minnesota. With home teams standing at 10-1 in umpire Chris Conroy's last 11 games behind the plate in Minnesota games, take the White Sox and invest with confidence.
01:05 PM [909] TEX RANGERS +133 ( A GRIFFIN -R / M PINEDA -R )
02:10 PM [912] CHI WHITE SOX -155 ( T MILONE -L / C RODON -L )
1 unit bet pays 7.51 ....betdsi line .. evening parlay later (Clev, Cubs, Det, STL, Oakland?)
MLB parlays: 9-91, -18.86 units (risk 1 unit each pick)... winner #1 posted here......winner #2 posted here....winner #3 and nice winner #4... and small reduced winner #5, winner #6 paid 5.07 units...winner #7...and here is winner #8...and then winner #9
Goood luck everyone!! :firing: :toast:
ripped, cut and pasted, otherwise written by others, from across the internets:
It wasn't much of a secret that I was really high on Michael Pineda in the preseason. After a 2015 season that indicated major breakout was ahead with luscious K/BB numbers and FIP/xFIP on his side. The first two months of 2016 have been disastrous and how could we possibly continue the faith in Pineda? Well after last night's 6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 Hits, 1 BBs, 8 Ks, Pineda now holds a 3.00 ERA (2.46 FIP, 2.55 xFIP, 2.72 SIERA), 11.50 K/9 and 1.150 BB/9 in his last five starts. Sure, three were against the Twins (2x) and Angels, but he also squared up against the Tigers twice. I'm not saying that this means he's giving you Top 25 production the rest of the way. What I'm saying is that he's earned a near 15% whiff rate and 40%+ O-Swing rate and looking much better than his earlier self. I'd be getting on the train as he faces the Rangers/White Sox/Indians ahead and see what happens.
Michael Pineda's 5.51 ERA is an obvious deterrent, but there's potential value here if you look for it. Not only does the 27-year-old sport a top-10 whiff rate (10.4 K/9), but he's also shown some positive trends in June, posting a 3.00 ERA over five starts. With the Rangers, a team that's below average against righty pitching, on tap, Pineda is set up to succeed on Thursday.
One of the most enticing matchups of the day belongs to Carlos Rodon. The southpaw draws a home start against the Twins, who are one of the worst teams in the AL against left-handed pitching and strike out 25 percent of the time. For his part, Rodon is whiffing a batter per inning and has allowed more than two earned runs just once in his last seven outings.
I need to dig deeper into Carlos Rodon. After going 5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 Hits, 2 BBs, 8 Ks last start, his last seven starts have now produced a 3.24 ERA (only one start above 2 ER), a strikeout per inning, and just one outing above 2 walks. Has there been a major adjustment or is this just noise? Well, his velocity has gone up in that time (92.88 mph on May 4th, 95.08 mph last start), and he's getting more whiffs with his Slider (~15.8% in April/May, 24.8% in June). Definitely good signs for the kid. The biggest change is a 22 point jump in swing percentage for his Slider, despite throwing it for a strike just a five points more. That's a huge change as it leads to fewer walks and more chases out of the zone. That Slider has clearly improved - 88.64 mph last start, up from about 85 mph in early May
Steven Matz - 4.1 IP, 6 ER, 9 Hits, 0 BBs, 0 Ks. This might be the weirdest start we've seen all year. Matz was cruising through four like he's in the USA, then it all fell apart. Cespedes lost a ball, singles and doubles were all up in this, and then a three run shot. Oh, then of course there were no walks or strikeouts, because that would be too normal. Now there is word that Matz's elbow is flaring up again, but it really doesn't seem like that inning was to product of an irate elbow. That totally sounds like a band name. Yeah I'd see the shiz out of Irate Elbow.
Steven Matz, who is dealing with a bone spur in his pitching elbow, had his next start pushed back from Wednesday to Thursday...The Cubs are a top-five team against left-handed pitching and lead the majors in walk rate (11 percent), so the Mets' lefty will have little margin for error. That said, the door is open for Matz as the Cubs are whiffing at a 24.3 percent clip in June, while Matz is striking out nearly a batter per inning.
The Mets low scoring offense is only averaging 3.61 runs per game, placing them 28th overall, and are hitting .234 as a team. The New York pitching has been outstanding, boasting a 3.37 team ERA, good for third in the Majors.
Chicago Cubs are 12-3 in their last 15 games against a left handed starter.
Foltynewicz will be making his first start since an MRI exam completed on June 1 showed a bone spur in his right elbow. Instead of risking the possibility of incurring a significant injury while altering his mechanics to minimize the elbow discomfort, the 24-year-old right-hander opted to go on the disabled list. He completed five pain-free and scoreless innings while limiting Charlotte to one hit in his first rehab start for Triple-A Gwinnett on Saturday night.
Young really struggled in his last outing, giving up seven runs in 2 1/3 innings against the Astros. He walked four batters in that game for the second time in June and was pulled after 67 pitches. He's given up a homer in every start this season.
This probably goes without saying, but don't go chasing Chris Young and his 9.2 K/9 rate on Thursday. The right-hander owns a 7.79 ERA in June and a 9.70 ERA on the road this season. The Cardinals, who sport an MLB-best 119 wRC+ versus righties this year, won't go easy on him.
Royals are just 7-21 in their past 27 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
The home side counters with Mike Leake (5-5, 4.25) who was shelled for five runs off nine hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to Seattle on Saturday, striking out one and walking two. Leake?s 1.24 WHIP to go along with just 59 K?s in 91 frames of work leaves everything to be desired. With these two inconsistent starters going head-to-head in this interleague contest, the OVER does indeed become worthy of a second look in this particular matchup.
Dillon Overton - 5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 Hits, 2 BBs, 3 Ks. What I did like was that he threw a good amount of strikes and had a decent near 10% whiff rate. His ER came off the long ball and he was...fine. But he also faced the Angels and doesn't present a ton of upside. I'm not ready to give him to dreaded Cup of Schmo label, but I wouldn't get too excited.
Los Angeles @ MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE +117 over Los Angeles
Had it not been for a bizarre series of plays in the opener of this series on Tuesday, the Dodgers would be down 0-2. L.A. took the opener 6-5 but lost last night, 7-0. The Dodgers are now 43-37 on the year so let?s put that into a little more perspective. When Clayton Kershaw starts, the Dodgers are 14-2. When Clayton Kershaw doesn?t start, the Dodgers are 29-35. Taking it a bit further, when Clayton Kershaw doesn?t start on the road, the Dodgers are 12-21. In other words, the Dodgers chances of losing are higher than their chances of winning when Kershaw doesn?t start.
With a 2.91 ERA after 15 starts, Kenta Maeda has put up some pretty sweet numbers so far.While his base skills are good, Maeda stands some significant risk of regression. His favorable 26% hit rate and 80% strand rate likely will normalize. When that happens, his 3.70 xERA is a more likely level of where his ERA will end up. We may also be seeing signs of fatigue. Remember, Japanese starters go once every six days. Maeda is about halfway through the year going once every five days. The first sign of fatigue is losing the strike zone and Maeda?s first-pitch strike rate in his last start was just 43%. He lasted just five frames. It?s also his second go around, which is always tougher than the first time around. Maeda has 89 MPH heat. He has some nice movement on his secondary stuff but again, we can?t completely trust it in such a small sample size. MLB hitters make adjustment quickly and while Maeda may very well throw a good game here, we would not trust him or the Dodgers enough to be spotting a price on the road.
Zach Davies is every bit Maeda?s equal. Davies has 65 K?s in 75 innings. He relies heavily upon an 89 mph sinker. However, his best pitch, a change-up, continues to draw plenty of swings and misses (22%). His control was sketchy a year ago, but he has made notable progress in 2016. He has a history of inducing a lot of groundballs (near-50% throughout minor league career). Though his groundball rate has slipped so far in 2016, he has maintained a groundball lean. Davies has been a pleasant surprise through his first 13 starts of 2016. A lack of overpowering stuff doesn't afford the 23-year-old much margin for error, but he has done a decent job of mixing his pitches and keeping hitters off balance. Perhaps most importantly, Davies has a ton of confidence now in knowing he belongs. He has 36 K?s over his last 33 frames with just six walks issued. That?s a 6-1 ratio to the good. He also has a 1.64/2.84 ERA/xERA over that span. Davies is coming on big time while Maeda is showing signs of fatigue but the line reflects neither.
Cleveland @ TORONTO
Cleveland -1? +140 over TORONTO
Carlos Carrasco?s ERA doesn't show it, but he had a strong encore last year to his 2014 breakout. Carrasco handled his innings pitched jump just fine too. His high groundball rate and high swing-and-miss percentage are both well-established now and his first-pitch strike rate says his pinpoint control is legit. Carrasco hit the DL late last year with a sore shoulder but he returned with 15.1 K?s/9 in September. This year it?s much of the same with a 2.73 ERA, a 52% groundball rate, a 12% swing and miss rate and 95 MPH heat. Carrasco has a BB/K split of 13/49 in 56 frames. It?s hard to find a flaw in these metrics so we are not going to hesitate to back him in an evenly priced game when he?s pitching for the hottest team in the majors and he?s up against R.A. Dickey.
The old knuckleball. We have discussed that crazy pitch before and nothing has changed in that there is not a lot to be said about it. The knuckleball is either dancing or it?s not. It?s not a pitch you can sit on either because even if a hitter knows it?s coming, it still flutters and could end up anywhere in or out of the strike-zone. Derek Jeter once said about the knuckleball after another frustrating day against it, ?I don?t think HE (referring to the pitcher) even knows where it?s going?. That about sums it up for the knuckler. It?s a freak pitch thrown by guys that were or are desperate to make it to the big leagues. There isn?t a person on Earth that can predict how the knuckler will hold up from game to game but when it doesn?t hold up, the pitching lines are ugly. With a knuckleball pitcher, there is no such thing as ?working through your bad stuff?. Knucklers either get whacked or they do not.
We would much rather roll the dice with an ace in an evenly priced game. We would much rather roll the dice with said ace that is pitching for a team as hot as the Indians are right now. Let is also remind you that Toronto is coming off a trio of long days playing in the high altitude of Colorado. Tuesday?s game ended at 3:30 AM EST and it was followed by a matinee game yesterday. The Blue Jays are not used to playing in Colorado and while they won the final two games, the effects of playing in Denver may be present tonight.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White SoxT
Play: Chicago White Sox -158
Chicago southpaw Carlos Rodon has compiled at least seven strikeouts in each of his last three outings and toes the rubber Thursday afternoon with a 9.07 K/9 rate and 22.8% K%. Rodon is gradually becoming one of the best young arms in baseball despite owning a 2-6 record with a 4.09 ERA and 1.48 WHIP this season. The 23-year-old's peripherals are very strong, but he has been hampered by an extremely unlucky .346 BABIP. Once his hit rate regresses closer to what he posted last season (.315 BABIP), Rodon's surface statistics will begin to reflect his true talent level.
Rodon owns a 2.64 ERA in day games, a 2.75 ERA versus division opponents and a 3.00 ERA over his last three starts. He also owns 3.78 FIP at home (4.34 ERA) and a 3.70 FIP in June (3.75 ERA) where he boasts a 26.9% K% and 19.2% K-BB%. However, Rodon has been hampered by an unsustainable .397 BABIP this month so his value in the betting market is artificially depressed. Let's also note that the talented lefty is 1-0 with a career 1.50 ERA and 1.33 WHIP versus the Twins, including a six-inning shutout performance on April 13.
Rodon's success should continue against an anemic Minnesota lineup that is averaging 3.9 runs per game on the road (.231 AVG.; .294 OBP; .674 OPS), 3.8 runs per game in afternoon contests (.234 AVG.; .298 OBP; .675 OPS) and 3.5 runs per game versus division foes (.237 AVG.; .300 OBP; .659 OPS). The Twins rank 27th in runs scored (306; MLB average is 345), 24th in OBP and 22nd in OPS. Rodon is also supported by a very good Chicago bullpen that owns a 2.31 ERA at home, a 3.36 ERA in day games and a 3.15 ERA over the last seven games.
In contrast, Minnesota's bullpen has really struggled away from Target Field where it owns a 5.31 ERA and 1.45 WHIP in 122 innings this season. The Twins' relief staff also has a 5.02 ERA and 1.59 WHIP versus division foes and a 4.56 ERA and 1.41 WHIP overall in 2016. Meanwhile, Minnesota soft-tosser Tom Milone posted a 5.40 ERA and 4.96 FIP in April and an 8.10 ERA and 6.76 FIP in May before being sent to Triple-A Rochester. Like last year, Milone excelled in the Minors where he posted a 1.66 ERA with 41 strikeouts and four walks in 48 2/3 innings with Rochester.
In his first start since being recalled from Triple-A, Milone threw 41 of his 77 pitches for strikes and only lasted 3 2/3 innings. The 29-year-old is now 0-2 with a 4.94 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in 23 2/3 Major League innings this season. In his most recent trip to U.S. Cellular Field (9/12/15), Milone gave up 7 runs (4 earned) on eight hits in just 3 2/3 innings of work. From a technical standpoint, the Twins are a money-burning 10-27 in their last 37 road games (1-4 in Milone's L/5 road starts), 8-21 in their last 29 in game 3 of a series, 12-41 in their last 53 games following a loss and 6-23 in their last 29 division games.
Minnesota is also 9-26 as a road underdog this season, including 3-20 as a road underdog of +150 or less and 1-12 as a road underdog of +125 or less. Finally, the White Sox are 16-7 in their last 23 games versus .399 or worse opposition, 4-1 in their last five games versus southpaws and 7-1 in their last eight meetings with Minnesota. With home teams standing at 10-1 in umpire Chris Conroy's last 11 games behind the plate in Minnesota games, take the White Sox and invest with confidence.
