Wednesday Gab:
See what I get for betting against Maddux? (nice defense, fishmen)
Miller rolls on (Astros still haven't lost 2 Miller's in a row), and Rock's will probably be glad to be heading home.
Cards are a decent club, but in the long run it looks like they'll be pretenders.
I'm losing track of these Hernandez's.
Tomorrow I'm going out and getting "Don't bet on games involving the Twins" tattooed on my betting finger.
'Nuff said ... time to rock on ...
Thursday June 21st 2001
======================
DR=days rest
NP=number of pitches
RC=record as starter
TRC=team's record as starter
WHIP=(walks + hits) / innings pitched
ERA=encouraging responsible analysis
3RATE=rating of pitcher's last 3 starts weighted towards more recent ones
...min=6, max=30
Teams with higher 3RATE starter went 5-3 on Wednesday. No differentials of 5+, but differential of 3+ went 4-1 Wednesday, with just starter Maddux embarassing the seafood and shortgo Fernandez McBobbling the baseball behind Burnett.
...fine...this way maybe we'll get some value on Burnett over his next couple of starts (fat chance) 'cuz this guy is for real.
Stats are from Yahoo save for any opponent BA or SLG's listed (and corresponding HR #'s) which are from Baseball Weekly. The BA's and SLG's, listed when over .280 or under .220 (BA, LH & RH) and over .500 or under .400 (SLG), are only through games of June 11th unless otherwise noted. What can I do -- the new one came out yesterday but I won't hit the store 'till tomorrow.
...but I digress (habitually) ...
NAME...DR...NP...RC/TRC...WHIP...ERA...3RATE
Penny.....4.....72....6-1/8-6......1.21....3.73......20
Burkett....4....113....6-5/9-6.....1.04....2.51.....22
...Burkett LH .203, SLG .342 (including 0.8 HR/9 IP)
...Braves have won 7 of past 8 Burkett starts
...both these guys have been pitching up a storm lately, but with the Braves producing 7 yesterday, with Burnett starting, I recommend taking some Midol if you get too excited about the under 8 in this one; still, at even $$$ I might take a stab (hypocrite); pass the dutchie this way, quick! maybe I'll forget my passwords
--------------------
Lieber......4...110....7-4/9-5....1.07...3.32.......15.5
Benes.....5....110....6-4/9-5....1.53...5.94........18
...Lieber RH .198, SLG .343 (including 0.6 HR/9 IP)
...Benes LH .293, RH .286, SLG .517 (including 1.9 HR/9 IP)
...Benes has been better lately, obviously, but Cards no cinch here. Lieber is the real deal and not too bad vs lefties (.262). This one might be a battle. I may have to flip a coin here. And a total of 8.5? I hafta remember my mantra ... bullpen ... bullpen ... bullpen (under players should check BP statii)
--------------------
Estes......5...88.....6-2/9-3.....1.05....2.41.......22
Jones.....5....85....3-9/4-10....1.28...3.59.......12
...Estes LH .171, RH .213, SLG .341 (including 0.8 HR/9 IP)
...Jones ERA up half a point from a month ago, i.e. he's been on the decline. Still, I dunno if I can stomach another Giants play after that debacle on Tuesday. Word is that Bonds will get the day off tomorrow, so I'm all over the under (8.5).
--------------------
Person.......4...87....4-5/8-6....1.33...4.78.......8.5
Anderson...5...94....4-6/7-7....1.47...4.24.......16.5
...Anderson RH .287, SLG .389 (including 0.7 HR/9 IP)
...Pirates have lost 6 of last 8 Anderson starts. so what? don't they lose 6 of 8 starts, period? allright, not quite. Either way, the way these two have been pitching lately I'm thinking about donating some money to the man with the home play here.
--------------------
Blank.....4...82....1-2/1-2....1.65....5.82..........14
Appier....4...111...4-6/4-10...1.24...3.93.........23
...opponents hitting .450 against Zero, I mean Blank, in 2001 (up to date)
...Appier LH .280, RH .217
...Appier's allowed only 1 ER over last 22 IP (up to date)
...crap...I just looked at the line for this game; I was going to say that the Mets are the play here, but that's an expensive play. I'm more likely to try the runline, -1.5, at the small +, rather then to lay the heavy wood (speaking of him, he's going tomorrow, isn't he?); Appier's been smoking right-handers, and the Expos don't exactly have any tough left-handed bats ... unless Lee Stevens scares you. Mind you, Guerrero hits righties better than lefties. So do sluggers Milton Bradley (1 HR), and Michael Barrett (3 HR).
--------------------
Davis.......4...105....0-0/0-1....1.80...3.60.......N/A
McKnight..4...96.....0-0/1-0....0.83...1.50.......N/A
...Davis a 24-year old lefthander recently called up; Triple-A numbers include a 7-2 record, a 3.05 ERA, and only 15 BB in 79.2 IP; ML debut 5 days ago vs Col: 5 IP, 6 H (1 HR, righty Ben Petrick), 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, ND7-8
...McKnight recently called up; 4-1 with 3.86 ERA in 6 starts for Astros in 2000; 7-4 with 4.37 ERA at Triple-A in 2001; vs Texas 5 days ago: 6 IP, 4 H (0), 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, ND2-1
--------------------
Bierbrodt....7...111....1-0/2-0....2.29...11.57....11.5*
Hampton...4....103....9-2/11-3...1.31...3.06....14
...Bierbrodt #'s unavailable, but righties have been smoking him while lefties have had trouble
...Hampton LH .321
...*Bierbrodt 3RATE pro-rated for 1st 2 major league starts
...allright, this is Coors ... what are the odds of a one run game? (probably between 20 and 50 per cent -- where's Danny Sheridan when you need him?); -200 is tempting, but I'll again likely go out on a limb and push my X with the runline. Buyer Beware.
--------------------
--------------------
Halama.....4...88....6-4/10-4...1.50...4.71.......15
Lidle.........4....85....1-4/3-9.....1.20...4.21......20.5
...Halama LH .338, RH .298
...Lidle LH .209, RH .290
...M's have won 5 straight Halama starts (1.84 WHIP and 6.04 ERA over those 5)
...A's have lost 4 of past 5 Lidle starts
...what's wrong with these numbers? Lidle has gotten no run support or bullpen support, and Matt Blank could have a winning record with the M's (maybe not Steve Parris though ... anyone have that pack of gum?); this one is tough ... I'm somehow 3 for 3 in this goofy series. If someone put a gun to my head I would probably try the A's. I said the same thing for the Avalanche, for game #7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, and I backed off the game as I was 5 for 5 in the series.
Anybody got a gun?
--------------------
Mussina....4...91....6-7/7-7....1.10...3.54........18.5
Blair..........1st 2001 appearance
...Mussina RH .281, SLG .368 (including 0.4 HR/9 IP)
...Blair 41-60 career as a starter with a 1.47 WHIP and 5.19 ERA; lifetime 3-2 vs Yankees with a 1.43 WHIP and 3.45 ERA
--------------------
Romero....5...83....1-3/4-6....1.39...5.52.........8
Wright.....4....80....2-2/4-2....1.93...5.33........11.5
...Romero LH .290
...Wright LH .300, RH .306, SLG .395 (0 HR in 1st 6 starts, 27 IP, up to date)
...Twins have lost 4 straight Romero starts
...another goofy series, flip-floppin' leads and leaving me 0 for 2. This one I'm leaving alone, because of the price, but I was thinking Injuns. Remember ... 0 for 2 ... a Twins win and that's a virtual 0 for 3.
--------------------
K.Wells.....4...85....3-3/3-3....1.29....2.80........13.5
Johnson....4...78....6-3/8-6....1.20....3.24........17
...Wells LH .117, RH .300, SLG .329 (including 0.7 HR/9 IP)
...Johnson SLG .382 (including 0.9 HR/9 IP)
...Wells 3RATE kinda scewed due to poor last start, @StL: 5.1 IP, 9 H (2 HR), 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, L3-8; he was very solid in his first 5 starts
...Johnson 3RATE also kinda funky; I credited him with a just sub-quality start in his last, despite that outing being shortened to 4.1 IP due to 3 rain delays
...bottom line is they are both good, young pitchers. Wells is maybe a little better, and the ChiSox have been playing good ball lately (anyone know when Canseco will take the field, or should I say DH?); O's were fired up at home against the Jays (as "fired up" as the O's can get, anyway) and the crowd was freaking out, especially for all of Ripken's plate appearances. Still, the Sox, at even $$$, are tempting -- they've been executing much better than the Jays lately.
--------------------
Martinez....11...110....7-2/7-6....0.89...2.01....17
Sturtze......11....116....3-3/4-3...1.47...5.10.....18
...Martinez LH .211, RH .169, SLG .266 (including 0.4 HR/9 IP)
...Sturtze LH .290
...we all know why Pedro missed his last start, but I can't find word on why Tanyon missed his -- it certainly can't be because of the way that he's been pitching
...Pedro says he's "fine", but who knows what he's going to bring to the table. A long outing is probably not in the offing. I also can't see him overly exerting his arm, so a high strikeout count may also go by the boards. 7.5 is a low total for Tampa, which plays in a small park. If I was totally insane (not just insane, but totally insane) then I would suggest that there is value in both the D'Rays, at +240 (notice the BoSox are only 7-6 in Pedro starts), and over the total of 7.5, at even coin.
Pass that dutchie, already.
--------------------
Wise.......recently called up
Helling....5...87....4-7/5-10....1.74...6.18.........12
...Helling LH .326, RH .322, SLG .549 (including 1.6 HR/9 IP)
...Wise made a couple of early April starts, going 1-0 (team 2-0), with a 1.57 WHIP and 6.43 ERA
...Rangers have won 4 of past 5 Helling starts
...I got away with the Ortiz win. Ortiz is very good and has the potential to be great someday. Putting money on Wise just wouldn't be very wise, in my opinion. As for the Rangers, I don't think that I can play such a crappy team at -145.
Better than -250,000,000 for Alex Rodriquez though, aye?
======================================
What a goofy month. I'd sell my soul for some fundamentally sound baseball.
Tomorrow, maybe. Time will tell.
Good X on the diamonds.
[This message has been edited by EXTRAPOLATER (edited 06-21-2001).]
See what I get for betting against Maddux? (nice defense, fishmen)
Miller rolls on (Astros still haven't lost 2 Miller's in a row), and Rock's will probably be glad to be heading home.
Cards are a decent club, but in the long run it looks like they'll be pretenders.
I'm losing track of these Hernandez's.
Tomorrow I'm going out and getting "Don't bet on games involving the Twins" tattooed on my betting finger.
'Nuff said ... time to rock on ...
Thursday June 21st 2001
======================
DR=days rest
NP=number of pitches
RC=record as starter
TRC=team's record as starter
WHIP=(walks + hits) / innings pitched
ERA=encouraging responsible analysis
3RATE=rating of pitcher's last 3 starts weighted towards more recent ones
...min=6, max=30
Teams with higher 3RATE starter went 5-3 on Wednesday. No differentials of 5+, but differential of 3+ went 4-1 Wednesday, with just starter Maddux embarassing the seafood and shortgo Fernandez McBobbling the baseball behind Burnett.
...fine...this way maybe we'll get some value on Burnett over his next couple of starts (fat chance) 'cuz this guy is for real.
Stats are from Yahoo save for any opponent BA or SLG's listed (and corresponding HR #'s) which are from Baseball Weekly. The BA's and SLG's, listed when over .280 or under .220 (BA, LH & RH) and over .500 or under .400 (SLG), are only through games of June 11th unless otherwise noted. What can I do -- the new one came out yesterday but I won't hit the store 'till tomorrow.
...but I digress (habitually) ...
NAME...DR...NP...RC/TRC...WHIP...ERA...3RATE
Penny.....4.....72....6-1/8-6......1.21....3.73......20
Burkett....4....113....6-5/9-6.....1.04....2.51.....22
...Burkett LH .203, SLG .342 (including 0.8 HR/9 IP)
...Braves have won 7 of past 8 Burkett starts
...both these guys have been pitching up a storm lately, but with the Braves producing 7 yesterday, with Burnett starting, I recommend taking some Midol if you get too excited about the under 8 in this one; still, at even $$$ I might take a stab (hypocrite); pass the dutchie this way, quick! maybe I'll forget my passwords
--------------------
Lieber......4...110....7-4/9-5....1.07...3.32.......15.5
Benes.....5....110....6-4/9-5....1.53...5.94........18
...Lieber RH .198, SLG .343 (including 0.6 HR/9 IP)
...Benes LH .293, RH .286, SLG .517 (including 1.9 HR/9 IP)
...Benes has been better lately, obviously, but Cards no cinch here. Lieber is the real deal and not too bad vs lefties (.262). This one might be a battle. I may have to flip a coin here. And a total of 8.5? I hafta remember my mantra ... bullpen ... bullpen ... bullpen (under players should check BP statii)
--------------------
Estes......5...88.....6-2/9-3.....1.05....2.41.......22
Jones.....5....85....3-9/4-10....1.28...3.59.......12
...Estes LH .171, RH .213, SLG .341 (including 0.8 HR/9 IP)
...Jones ERA up half a point from a month ago, i.e. he's been on the decline. Still, I dunno if I can stomach another Giants play after that debacle on Tuesday. Word is that Bonds will get the day off tomorrow, so I'm all over the under (8.5).
--------------------
Person.......4...87....4-5/8-6....1.33...4.78.......8.5
Anderson...5...94....4-6/7-7....1.47...4.24.......16.5
...Anderson RH .287, SLG .389 (including 0.7 HR/9 IP)
...Pirates have lost 6 of last 8 Anderson starts. so what? don't they lose 6 of 8 starts, period? allright, not quite. Either way, the way these two have been pitching lately I'm thinking about donating some money to the man with the home play here.
--------------------
Blank.....4...82....1-2/1-2....1.65....5.82..........14
Appier....4...111...4-6/4-10...1.24...3.93.........23
...opponents hitting .450 against Zero, I mean Blank, in 2001 (up to date)
...Appier LH .280, RH .217
...Appier's allowed only 1 ER over last 22 IP (up to date)
...crap...I just looked at the line for this game; I was going to say that the Mets are the play here, but that's an expensive play. I'm more likely to try the runline, -1.5, at the small +, rather then to lay the heavy wood (speaking of him, he's going tomorrow, isn't he?); Appier's been smoking right-handers, and the Expos don't exactly have any tough left-handed bats ... unless Lee Stevens scares you. Mind you, Guerrero hits righties better than lefties. So do sluggers Milton Bradley (1 HR), and Michael Barrett (3 HR).
--------------------
Davis.......4...105....0-0/0-1....1.80...3.60.......N/A
McKnight..4...96.....0-0/1-0....0.83...1.50.......N/A
...Davis a 24-year old lefthander recently called up; Triple-A numbers include a 7-2 record, a 3.05 ERA, and only 15 BB in 79.2 IP; ML debut 5 days ago vs Col: 5 IP, 6 H (1 HR, righty Ben Petrick), 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, ND7-8
...McKnight recently called up; 4-1 with 3.86 ERA in 6 starts for Astros in 2000; 7-4 with 4.37 ERA at Triple-A in 2001; vs Texas 5 days ago: 6 IP, 4 H (0), 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, ND2-1
--------------------
Bierbrodt....7...111....1-0/2-0....2.29...11.57....11.5*
Hampton...4....103....9-2/11-3...1.31...3.06....14
...Bierbrodt #'s unavailable, but righties have been smoking him while lefties have had trouble
...Hampton LH .321
...*Bierbrodt 3RATE pro-rated for 1st 2 major league starts
...allright, this is Coors ... what are the odds of a one run game? (probably between 20 and 50 per cent -- where's Danny Sheridan when you need him?); -200 is tempting, but I'll again likely go out on a limb and push my X with the runline. Buyer Beware.
--------------------
--------------------
Halama.....4...88....6-4/10-4...1.50...4.71.......15
Lidle.........4....85....1-4/3-9.....1.20...4.21......20.5
...Halama LH .338, RH .298
...Lidle LH .209, RH .290
...M's have won 5 straight Halama starts (1.84 WHIP and 6.04 ERA over those 5)
...A's have lost 4 of past 5 Lidle starts
...what's wrong with these numbers? Lidle has gotten no run support or bullpen support, and Matt Blank could have a winning record with the M's (maybe not Steve Parris though ... anyone have that pack of gum?); this one is tough ... I'm somehow 3 for 3 in this goofy series. If someone put a gun to my head I would probably try the A's. I said the same thing for the Avalanche, for game #7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, and I backed off the game as I was 5 for 5 in the series.
Anybody got a gun?
--------------------
Mussina....4...91....6-7/7-7....1.10...3.54........18.5
Blair..........1st 2001 appearance
...Mussina RH .281, SLG .368 (including 0.4 HR/9 IP)
...Blair 41-60 career as a starter with a 1.47 WHIP and 5.19 ERA; lifetime 3-2 vs Yankees with a 1.43 WHIP and 3.45 ERA
--------------------
Romero....5...83....1-3/4-6....1.39...5.52.........8
Wright.....4....80....2-2/4-2....1.93...5.33........11.5
...Romero LH .290
...Wright LH .300, RH .306, SLG .395 (0 HR in 1st 6 starts, 27 IP, up to date)
...Twins have lost 4 straight Romero starts
...another goofy series, flip-floppin' leads and leaving me 0 for 2. This one I'm leaving alone, because of the price, but I was thinking Injuns. Remember ... 0 for 2 ... a Twins win and that's a virtual 0 for 3.
--------------------
K.Wells.....4...85....3-3/3-3....1.29....2.80........13.5
Johnson....4...78....6-3/8-6....1.20....3.24........17
...Wells LH .117, RH .300, SLG .329 (including 0.7 HR/9 IP)
...Johnson SLG .382 (including 0.9 HR/9 IP)
...Wells 3RATE kinda scewed due to poor last start, @StL: 5.1 IP, 9 H (2 HR), 6 ER, 1 BB, 4 K, L3-8; he was very solid in his first 5 starts
...Johnson 3RATE also kinda funky; I credited him with a just sub-quality start in his last, despite that outing being shortened to 4.1 IP due to 3 rain delays
...bottom line is they are both good, young pitchers. Wells is maybe a little better, and the ChiSox have been playing good ball lately (anyone know when Canseco will take the field, or should I say DH?); O's were fired up at home against the Jays (as "fired up" as the O's can get, anyway) and the crowd was freaking out, especially for all of Ripken's plate appearances. Still, the Sox, at even $$$, are tempting -- they've been executing much better than the Jays lately.
--------------------
Martinez....11...110....7-2/7-6....0.89...2.01....17
Sturtze......11....116....3-3/4-3...1.47...5.10.....18
...Martinez LH .211, RH .169, SLG .266 (including 0.4 HR/9 IP)
...Sturtze LH .290
...we all know why Pedro missed his last start, but I can't find word on why Tanyon missed his -- it certainly can't be because of the way that he's been pitching
...Pedro says he's "fine", but who knows what he's going to bring to the table. A long outing is probably not in the offing. I also can't see him overly exerting his arm, so a high strikeout count may also go by the boards. 7.5 is a low total for Tampa, which plays in a small park. If I was totally insane (not just insane, but totally insane) then I would suggest that there is value in both the D'Rays, at +240 (notice the BoSox are only 7-6 in Pedro starts), and over the total of 7.5, at even coin.
Pass that dutchie, already.
--------------------
Wise.......recently called up
Helling....5...87....4-7/5-10....1.74...6.18.........12
...Helling LH .326, RH .322, SLG .549 (including 1.6 HR/9 IP)
...Wise made a couple of early April starts, going 1-0 (team 2-0), with a 1.57 WHIP and 6.43 ERA
...Rangers have won 4 of past 5 Helling starts
...I got away with the Ortiz win. Ortiz is very good and has the potential to be great someday. Putting money on Wise just wouldn't be very wise, in my opinion. As for the Rangers, I don't think that I can play such a crappy team at -145.
Better than -250,000,000 for Alex Rodriquez though, aye?
======================================
What a goofy month. I'd sell my soul for some fundamentally sound baseball.
Tomorrow, maybe. Time will tell.
Good X on the diamonds.
[This message has been edited by EXTRAPOLATER (edited 06-21-2001).]
