- Mar 2, 2006
- 4,794
- 120
- 0
O-Us: 5-3
ATS: 2-2
MLs: 1-0
TOTAL: 8-5
+2.7 units
Utah really stunk up my night. In retrospect (oh yes, everything is easy when looking back), I went against a few common sense factors:
1) Very few NBA teams actually listen to their coach.
2) Never bet a dd-fav (I use 9 or more as dd for the nba - these teams slack off so much at the end of games) if the Total posted on the game minus the spread is more than 10 points under the league average. These games will very rarely go under and the favorite cover. So far this year where this situation fits:
If game goes UNDER, DOG covers 75%
If FAV covers, games goes OVER 66.7%
DOG covers 62.5%
UNDER and DOG cover 56.3% in all these games
So if I thought the game was going under, I should have bet the dog.
Oh well, I just wish Utah would have lost. How bout those Nuggets!
But I digress...
Tonight:
Wiz-Nets OVER 191.5
Mavs team total OVER 110.5
Good luck
ATS: 2-2
MLs: 1-0
TOTAL: 8-5
+2.7 units
Utah really stunk up my night. In retrospect (oh yes, everything is easy when looking back), I went against a few common sense factors:
1) Very few NBA teams actually listen to their coach.
2) Never bet a dd-fav (I use 9 or more as dd for the nba - these teams slack off so much at the end of games) if the Total posted on the game minus the spread is more than 10 points under the league average. These games will very rarely go under and the favorite cover. So far this year where this situation fits:
If game goes UNDER, DOG covers 75%
If FAV covers, games goes OVER 66.7%
DOG covers 62.5%
UNDER and DOG cover 56.3% in all these games
So if I thought the game was going under, I should have bet the dog.
Oh well, I just wish Utah would have lost. How bout those Nuggets!
But I digress...
Tonight:
Wiz-Nets OVER 191.5
Mavs team total OVER 110.5
Good luck
