Tim Hortons Inc

[redsfann]

Off to a flying start on its first day of trading.


Selkirk-

Are you planning on watching this for a while before buying or are you getting in now? I've always been wary of IPOs, so I want to watch this for 3-6 months to see what it does before possibly investing in it. Your thoughts?

 

[selkirk]

Redsfann it is probably best to wait, on this issue.

my plan was to get around 1500 shares, as thought it would go well, as there was more and more and more hype.

it was a good plan,

good news got some shares for the ipo.
bad news 200 shares, not quite 1500.

actually got lucky as they say only 14-15% went to retail customers. thought RBC (cdn. lead underwriter) should have given more to their good customers..... :shrug:

anyways sold 100 at $34.50, keeping the other 100.

should have sold that to, however will keep and see what it does. this is a great company. stop loss $28 cdn. closed $33.10 cdn. high $37.99

anyways there is growth for Tims in western Canada Alberta, BC (starbucks will be strong there), and Quebec.

they will grow more in Canada and only slowly in the US. mainly Northern States. and will stay a regional player in the US.

believe company has market cap of 6.65 billion. Wendys will spin off the remaining 80% to shareholders and would then look to enter the stock.

Most US shareholders do not know Tims, in Canada it is the culture. they are great marketers. sponser the brier (curling) hockey timbits hockey (5-7 year olds) across Canada.

also Roll up the RIM contest is a big hit.
sales should grow over 10% in the next 3-4 years.

management is brilliant and should really run Wendys which is run at the top by idiot morons, who collect large sums of money for reporting lower year over year sales.
sell off your winner and keep the two divisions reporting negative sales growth......idiots.

Tims at $27 cdn. IPO price is trading at 37 trailing earnings. that is not cheap. The hedge funds will blow this stock out the door when they get their 80% spun off to them.

well some will at least. this may put presure on the downside and present a great buying opportunity.

will put pressure on the stock as 80% will spin out. and most US investors would dump it.


there is a number of fast food chains getting rich mulitples, so there will be Burger King. and probably more issues to satisfy the market.

investment bankers will market now any food (garbage) company to satisfy the demand.

would wait for now.....

thanks
selkirk

 

[selkirk]

one note: had the first barbeque, on Sat. night to celebrate the arrival of spring. mild winter but always nice when the whole day is above freezing, well almost.

anyways talking to a neighbour who is with RBC Action direct. that is the discount brokerage arm or RBC securities. the lead cdn. underwriter.

I received my 200 from RBC (full service brokerage), anyways he asked for 1000 shares and that is what he received.

the stock was 10X overscribed and retail investors only received 14% of the amount. thought was lucky to get 200 out of 1500.

however he got his full amount 1000, some people are very lucky.

thanks
selkirk

 

[redsfann]

As you say, Selkirk, you were lucky to get the 200 you did. Nice to make a few bucks on the stock right out of the gate as well, I'm sure...

Will keep an eye on it for a few weeks/months and will update the forum when I pull the trigger.

thanks again for the heads-up on this stock...