TL Season Long Thread

[TLankford]

Final Card:

from Monday:

Vandy -20 actually don't really love this play but gonna ride it out and trust that gut
OMiss +17
UF -14

Added:

Texas A&M -14 still standing by my 62-27 prediction

Clemson 1H -17.5 Wake is bad and Clemson should be able to score at will with the starters in. Dabo should probably be thinking style points at this point in time because there could be 4 undefeated teams at the end of the year

LSU +125 Smallest play of the bunch but I think they win and gonna be watching this one at the bar so need some action right?

:0003

 

[TLankford]

3-3 day

Still reasonably profitable because LSU was such a small bet in comparison.

6-8 on the year

Got these in today:

Georgia State +55.5 over Alabama

Don't feel like looking it up, but I don't know that Saban has beaten anyone by 60 since he's been at Alabama. Just don't see it happening. They do a good job of using weeks like this to rest starters and play young guys and don't worry about style points or running up the score on nobody teams.

LSU -9.5 over Miss State

Too much talent on LSU's side here for MSU to stay within 2 scores. Even with it being at home, I don't see LSU being rattled by the cowbells after last week's game.

Vandy -140 over Mizzou

Mizzou still hasn't played a real game this year and Vandy has been tested a few times. I like the better team at home in this one

Will be getting on Auburn this weekend but would like to see if it is going to get up over 3 before jumping on that one. I think we at least keep it close if not win straight up. Team has been pretty good at home and has had a week to prepare for this one while OMiss was in a slugfest getting bruised up in Tuscaloosa. That definitely helps Auburn out in this one where I'd say the teams are pretty even talent-wise

 

[TLankford]

2-1 technically on saturday as I didn't make it back over to confirm an irregularly large bet on Auburn +125. Was at Austin City Limits all weekend so wasn't around computers for capping and posting picks. Pretty solid day though and Auburn is looking real good. Think we might actually compete with A&M, UGA and Bama instead of getting blown out as previously thought.

Put these in today. Tough looking card I think. Few totals I'll be looking at when they come out

Northwestern +10.5 over Wisconsin

South Carolina -6 over Arkansas

Michigan -2.5 over Penn State

 

[BOBBYW]

gl...

 

[TLankford]

Big teaser for tomorrow. Figured I'd post it for shits

10.5pt ties lose on 5D

A&M +4.5
Miss St +0.5
Stanford +2.5
UGA +3
LSU +3.5
Wisconsin +0.5
Bama Under 62
Michigan +8

Pays 4.25-1

:0003

 

[TLankford]

Two more plays for tomorrow. Will keep watching 5D and hope to get a TT or a Total on the AU game. Gonna be starting Jeremy Johnson and think we'll try to get him as many snaps as possible to get him ready for A&M in case Marshall can't play. Johnson is supposed to be the truth. Would love an Auburn TT in the mid-high 40s

Bama/UK Under 51.5

Don't think UK puts up double digits. Besides the A&M game VT is the only team to put up DDs. UK offense nothing special. Bama won't score 40+ on anyone else in the SEC I don't think. Something in the 35-3 ish range. Maybe lower.

UGA Team Total Over 36

Like this to be way over this number. UGA is a major step up in class from everyone Mizzou been getting shredded through the air all year. With Gurley possibly not playing Murray could throw for 500 if they want to preserve Marshall

opcorn2

 

[TLankford]

Buying back South Carolina. Just don't like it without Clowney playing.

 

[TLankford]

Got on a few 1st Halfs though

VT -220 Over Pitt

Texas A&M TT Over 21

Miss State -265 over BG

Couple of high juice lines but :shrug:

 

[TLankford]

Buying back South Carolina. Just don't like it without Clowney playing.

:sadwave:

 

[TLankford]

Pretty mediocre day on saturday. Few wins, Few losses. Nothing big either way. Bought out of the best pick of the week :facepalm:

May look like a homer play, but again I've bet against Auburn as much as I've bet on them. Last year betting against AU was a cash cow. This year it is just the opposite.

Biggest play of the year so far:

Auburn +14.5 -130

Bought a whole point to get it above 2TDs. I don't think it will matter but it is good security blanket. Auburn's defense has gotten better every week. DLine is finally playing with some testicles for the first time in 3 years. Secondary is coming around nicely. I think Ellis Johnson can come up with a decent scheme for JM. And Gus Malzahn can call a game that will put 40-50 on the board. T A&M defense is one of the worst defenses in the SEC. Auburn should have well over 200 yards rushing in this game and hopefully keep JM off the field a little bit. Everyone realizes that you have to go into shootout mode against TAM now and Gus has shown he will go for it on 4th down without batting an eye, which I think we'll have to do a couple times in this game on 4th and short.

I really hope to see Jeremy Johnson at QB on Saturday. His arm looked fantastic last weekend. Granted it's "against some bs team" but that doesn't make his arm any different. Just the pressure being applied and poise. He throws darts on the run and hits everyone in the numbers. He also has an amazing deep ball. Plus the guy is like 6'6" 220. Most people don't care that it would be a freshman going on the road in an SEC game because A&M defense is garbage.

No reason Auburn doesn't keep this one within the number. Even if Marshall is healthy enough to go, We've shown the ability to pound the football and don't have to rely on anyone passing with our 3-headed rushing attack + a QB with elite speed

Will be putting a small play on the moneyline as well

:0003

 

[TLankford]

opcorn2

 

[Jord20]

Pretty mediocre day on saturday. Few wins, Few losses. Nothing big either way. Bought out of the best pick of the week :facepalm: May look like a homer play, but again I've bet against Auburn as much as I've bet on them. Last year betting against AU was a cash cow. This year it is just the opposite. Biggest play of the year so far: Auburn +14.5 -130 Bought a whole point to get it above 2TDs. I don't think it will matter but it is good security blanket. Auburn's defense has gotten better every week. DLine is finally playing with some testicles for the first time in 3 years. Secondary is coming around nicely. I think Ellis Johnson can come up with a decent scheme for JM. And Gus Malzahn can call a game that will put 40-50 on the board. T A&M defense is one of the worst defenses in the SEC. Auburn should have well over 200 yards rushing in this game and hopefully keep JM off the field a little bit. Everyone realizes that you have to go into shootout mode against TAM now and Gus has shown he will go for it on 4th down without batting an eye, which I think we'll have to do a couple times in this game on 4th and short. I really hope to see Jeremy Johnson at QB on Saturday. His arm looked fantastic last weekend. Granted it's "against some bs team" but that doesn't make his arm any different. Just the pressure being applied and poise. He throws darts on the run and hits everyone in the numbers. He also has an amazing deep ball. Plus the guy is like 6'6" 220. Most people don't care that it would be a freshman going on the road in an SEC game because A&M defense is garbage. No reason Auburn doesn't keep this one within the number. Even if Marshall is healthy enough to go, We've shown the ability to pound the football and don't have to rely on anyone passing with our 3-headed rushing attack + a QB with elite speed Will be putting a small play on the moneyline as well :0003

Glad to see you on this one. Is def on my radar

 

[TLankford]

Bama -28 over Arkansas

Arkansas is BAD. They may lose out the rest of their games this year. Reminds me of Auburn's team last year. Biliema needs to go back up north where his belly can prosper and the football isn't as competitive (sorry B10 guys). Last week showed what Arkansas is going to do against real competition, also on par with the 2012 AU team - they get the doors blown off of them. Blah Blah but 33 against A&M - Because A&M is the worst defense in the SEC... It really says something about your team when your opponent has more 1st downs than you have passing yards.

They aren't gonna run anything on Bama. That is their only offense. Saban will stack the box as normal and let his monstrous silverbacks eat Arkansas's RBs. The QB really doesn't have a prayer either. Especially not in Tuscaloosa. Bama fans aren't the type to empty out the stadium when it's 35-0 at Half either so I don't expect some miracle back door cover. I think bama's offense, particularly their OLine, isn't as good as it has been in the last 4 years - but it's good enough to dominate Arky all day and put up enough points for the cover

:0003

 

[TLankford]

Auburn Team Total Over 29.5

I think both team totals, as well as the overall total for the game are very safe bets. Word now coming out that both of our QBs are healthy, which is great because if we want a freak athlete for the read option - Marshall can be it. If we want a more pure passer that can still run with his beautiful 6'6" gate - Johnson get in there. Being able to run the football normally results in TDs instead of FGs in the redzone which is gonna be a huge factor in the game. Driving up early in the morning from Austin and can't wait. Should be a fun one

 

[TLankford]

:0071:0071:0071:0071:0071

 

[TLankford]

13-14 YTD

Just checked the first lines. Like 2 chalky bets off the bat. Riding the Alabama teams again...

Auburn -24 over FAU

Obvious letdown game here against a nobody. Problem with that is that our backups are really talented and going to want to show out. Obvious position to look at the backup is QB. We've already seen what JJ can do against a garbage team. FAU is better than WCU but not that much better. better passer than the starter by a decent margin. On defense we have a lot of good young guys. I really like AU to be able to get up by 2-3 TDs in the 1st half and the 2nd team to be able to put up just as much in the 2H.

Bama -28 over Tennessee

jeeeeeesus what happened to this rivalry. 3rd saturday has had one good game in as long as I can remember and that was the "Rocky Block" game. Line tells you everything you need to know here. Tennessee has been the benefit of some good timing and weakened opponents. They kept it close with an injured UGA team. And beat a USCjr team that honestly hasn't beaten anyone... This is still a Vols team that struggled to beat South Alabama and got beat by a BAD Florida team and stomped by Oregon. They aren't going to do anything against this bama defense. Honestly could see a 45-6 type game.

Also looking at:

Baylor. Probably take 1st half instead of the whole game or maybe Baylor team total. Possible they look ahead to next week

Texas State +1.5. Been watching more TState than i care to admit being in Austin. A lot of my friends and coworkers here watch them. Has me halfway keeping up with this team. they aren't bad and are actually pretty good at home. Might be tailgating and attending this game

Texas +1. See above. Texas stringing some Ws together. TCU is bad. Their offense has problems and Texas's defense getting better

 

[TLankford]

Texas A&M 1stH TT over 23

don't think they'll have a problem hitting this number in the first half. Vandy's defense not that good and think A&M will come out firing after last weeks L

 

[TLankford]

Auburn Team Total Over 37.5

Auburn 1H TT Over 20.5

Vegas really expecting Auburn to come out flat. One matchup in this game makes me feel like we go well over this number. Auburn OLine vs. FAU DLine. Our OLine has been better than anyone thought and no team so far has been able to slow down this run game. This group of guys definitely won't be able to

FAU's starting DL

Defensive Line:
LE Martin Wright R-Sr, 6-4, 250
LT Trevon Coley So, 6-2, 225
RT Brandin Bryant R-So, 6-2, 260
RE Corey Henry Sr, 6-3, 238

I also think we may play JJ a decent amount at QB to get him some more game experience

 

[TLankford]

Mizzou -150

Team is no joke. Good Defense. And the new QB is a ballplayer. Not sure what South Cack has done to make anyone think they are an above average football team this year.

 

[TLankford]

Tennessee 1H TT Under 3.5

Barring a turnover I don't think UT crosses the 50 while Bama's starters are on the field