TL Season Long Thread

TLankford

Donkey
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just an update for the day:

5-1 after the morning games

pending:

A&M TT Over
Bama/LSU Over
VTech TT Under

not crazy about the rest of the night games. May be the only plays left today.
 

TLankford

Donkey
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6-2-1 on the day yesterday

32-21 on the year

22-7 the last three weeks. hopefully keep this momentum going the last few weeks and have a good bankroll when bowl season gets here

Will be taking Auburn over UGA if the line is 3 or less and if the over is less than 70 I will probably take the OVER hard. Neither of us have shown a hell of a lot of defense and should both be comfortably in the high 30s/40s
 

TLankford

Donkey
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Been mulling this one over all week and hopefully waiting for UGA backers to get this line down below 3 for me... no bueno.

Auburn -165 Over UGA

First lose-able game we've had since texas A&M. If Gurley was 100%, Marshall was playing, Mitchell had an ACL, and the defense for Georgia was healthy, I would be really worried about this game and taking UGA without a doubt to keep it within a FG. This just isn't the same team that played Clemson, USC and LSU. And their defense is quite bad. I do think Murray will be able to move the ball on us pretty smoothly for a while. We give up a ton of yards in the 1st half and then seem to make great halftime adjustments, if you look at the scoring difference for our defense between the 1H and 2H the numbers are pretty ridiculous. I like this game to be around a 21-21 halftime and then Tigers pull away late to the tune of 41-31. Which leads me to my next play:

Auburn-UGA OVER 63.5

At least one team should hit the 40s here. Other team shouldn't be too far behind.

:0008

Also will be looking at / taking Mississippi State Team Total UNDER if it is 14-17 or better

Stanford Moneyline
 
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TLankford

Donkey
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well I will take that gift and go on about my day

Taking:

Miss State TT Under 14.5

Stanford -175
 
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TLankford

Donkey
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Stanford choke job cost me a perfect day. Not gonna complain about a 3-1 saturday though

35-22 YTD 61.4%

25-8 over the last month

Few teams in the SEC with off weeks next saturday, including my cash cow tigers. On an 8-0 ATS run since the first 2 games.

I do like Texas A&M to keep the game vs LSU pretty tight and possibly win straight up. Last I saw on SB lines of the year A&M was +5.5. I'll take a FG any day of the week with them
 

TLankford

Donkey
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Getting this one in early. I think it will go down to 3 so I'll take the 4 now and probably take ML just because I think LSU's defense can be burned. Probably gonna be another shootout like the UGA game so I'll be looking at the over. 3 bets on a single game is normal right?

Texas A&M +4

Not sure which way these are gonna go but leaning:

Tennessee -3 over Vandy.

Vols got blown out last year but that was on the road with a really bad team and Vandy pretty much at their peak of the programs history. still only the 2nd time they've beaten UT in the last decade I don't see this being some kind of winning streak building for the Vols over what should be a more talented roster, at home. Would like some money to come in on Vandy and pull this one closer to a Pick.

Arkansas -1.5 over Miss State

Gonna need Corley to keep me updated on the QB situation here, but Arkansas is capable of beating that last QB that played vs. Bama pretty easily. Still kinda like them straight up with Russell healthy just because MSU is more than likely banged up a little bit after playing Bama, which was a huge home game to get up for before going on the road. They do need to win out to be bowl eligible (I think)

Ole Miss +3.5 (will buy a hook if it stays at 3) over Mizzou

Not that convinced in Mizzou here against a live dog. Tigers just haven't played and beaten any teams that are very convincing. Beat up UGA team, horrible UF team, next most impressive with is @Vandy? Tennessee? I like Ole Miss to play spoiler here for Mizzou's SEC championship hopes or at least keep it within a FG. Even if they win this game, I'm going against them next week when they play A&M


So... 2 dogs and 2 faves in SEC this week. See how that works out for me. Gonna wait and see which way those last 3 lines move, hopefully get a half/whole point in my favor and not see them go the other way.

:0008
 
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TLankford

Donkey
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Will probably be seen as a homer play, but I promise I'll be taking Auburn for a decent sized play next week if that line really comes out around +17. Only blowouts have been in 3 of AU's worst teams since the 80s. 5-7 2008 team with Tubs foot out the door. 8-5 2011 team that could have just as easily have been 5-8. And the joke of a 3-9 team last year. Game is just normally competitive when both teams put a good team on the field. Have seen this AU team get punched in the mouth by LSU and A&M and get down late to MSU and they don't quit like the aforementioned teams.

:popcorn2
 

ejthree

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Will probably be seen as a homer play, but I promise I'll be taking Auburn for a decent sized play next week if that line really comes out around +17. Only blowouts have been in 3 of AU's worst teams since the 80s. 5-7 2008 team with Tubs foot out the door. 8-5 2011 team that could have just as easily have been 5-8. And the joke of a 3-9 team last year. Game is just normally competitive when both teams put a good team on the field. Have seen this AU team get punched in the mouth by LSU and A&M and get down late to MSU and they don't quit like the aforementioned teams.

:popcorn2

Not sure but I gotta believe you will see 13 or. 14 in the Iron Bowl...
 

TLankford

Donkey
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2H Arkansas +3 -133

did a wait and see on this one. Retard fake punt made this a tie game at half. Should be 10-3
 

TLankford

Donkey
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Didn't get around a computer to post any plays on the Iron Bowl because I was in Auburn all weekend. Hell of a game and very profitable :00hour

Saw the line for the SECC went from +2 to -1.5 for Auburn. Gonna be tough not to put a decent amount of money on them this weekend. Nobody going to be able to stop this running game. And outside of 10 minutes vs. UGA, our defense in the 2nd half of games this year has been lock down. Could see a mobile QB getting a couple scores on us early, but our DL is playing better ever week. Josey is nothing special.

Also see this as being heavily in Auburn's favor as far as the crowd is concerned. Gus Bus is in full force
 
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