credit drbobsports
Texas (-6.0) 27 TEXAS TECH 23
12:30 PM Pacific Time Saturday, Nov-16
I was really hoping to get more points in this game, as Texas Tech qualifies in a very strong 50-18-1 ATS home underdog momentum situation while Texas qualifies in a negative 32-86-1 ATS situation that plays against very good teams on the road when facing a streaking home team. While the situations favoring the Red Raiders are strong, I can only lean their way with the line so low. My mathematical model favors Texas by 9 ? points, as they clearly don?t match up well in this game. Tech?s pass-heavy offense (59 pass plays per game) has averaged an impressive 5.8 yards per play this season (against teams that allow 5.2 yppl), but Texas has the best pass defense in the nation, allowing just 3.6 yards per pass play (to teams that average 5.7 yppp on offense. Texas Tech quarterback Kliff Kingsbury has racked up huge numbers in recent weeks against teams that don?t defend the pass well, but he?s averaged just 4.9 yppp in 3 games against teams that are very good against the pass (NC State, Texas A&M, and Colorado all allow 5.1 yppp or less for the season). Texas has the team speed on defense to defend a spread offense well and the Longhorns have given up an average of just 12 points to Tech the last two years. Texas is coming around offensively in recent weeks, as star WR Roy Williams? tight hamstring heals, and the Longhorns have averaged a decent 5.3 yppl for the season against teams that allow just 5.1 yppl on defense. Texas Tech has under-performed defensively this season (5.6 yppl against teams that average 5.3 yppl on offense), so Texas should be able to move the football. The match-ups favoring Texas will keep me off the Red Raiders as a Best Bet, but I will still lean with a Texas Tech team that is 15-1 ATS in their final home game of the season the last 16 years.