I don't know why the line movement and usually wouldn't play when the line moves against the public, but to me it still looks like Toledo will win the game.
Looks to me like Opelt should be able to take advantage vs the inexperience and should be able to move the ball at will vs Ball St. when they have the ball. Think Ball St will try to shorten the game and Toledo's defense could wear down late in the game if it's a tight game, but if Toledo gets up early, it's all Toledo and should cover. Also like the fact that it's a revenge game for Toledo.
Look at it as a gift with the line dropping. Or maybe play 1st half Toledo and at half see what the situation is at half.
Good luck today.