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Fresno State, Toledo: much in common
Teams feature potent offenses, top QBs ... if Gradkowski is OK to play







FRESNO, Calif. - The two football teams have never met, yet they are mirror images in many ways.


Since the start of the 2000 season, the University of Toledo has compiled the best record - 49-16 - of any non-BCS conference team east of Boise. In the same time period, Fresno State, at 46-22, has put together the best non-BCS record west of Boise.

Boise isn't exactly the continental divide, but it is the home of Boise State and a Broncos team that is 55-11 since 2000.

The best of the rest, Toledo and Fresno, meet tonight before 40,000-plus at Bulldog Stadium and a national TV audience on ESPN2.

"This is not only a huge game for Fresno State but also for Toledo, especially coming across the country and playing on national television," said Bulldogs coach Pat Hill. "They are a lot like us, really. They play very hard and are well-coached in all three phases. This is a very meaningful game for both teams."

Toledo is 3-0, but facing its first big test of the season. Fresno, 1-1, was ranked in the Top 25 of both major polls before a 37-34 loss in its last game at Oregon.

"I'm sort of mad they lost," UT quarterback Bruce Gradkowski said of the Bulldogs. "We wanted to play a top-ranked opponent. But they're still a great team. We're 3-0, but the road definitely gets harder."

The status of Gradkowski, whose practice time the past week was limited because of an undisclosed injury, or injuries, will be a game-time decision, according to UT coach Tom Amstutz. If he plays, the teams will have more mirror images in offenses and in the match-up between Gradkowski and Fresno senior Paul Pinegar.

Gradkowski owns a 70 percent career completion mark, but Pinegar has been even better this season, completing 77 percent [47 of 61] for 607 yards and five touchdowns in two games. He threw for 418 yards in the loss at Oregon and ranks sixth in the NCAA in passing efficiency and 10th in total offense with 323 yards per game.

Pinegar is 26-9 as a starter and is one of seven quarterbacks in NCAA history - Toledo's Chuck Ealey (1969-71) is another - to have led his team to three straight bowl wins. No quarterback has ever gone 4-0.

"He's a good quarterback, a high-percentage decision maker," Gradkowski said of Pinegar. "Obviously, they have a good system."

Fresno's Hill says the same of the Rockets, who rank No. 3 nationally in scoring offense (53.3 points per game) and No. 17 in total offense at 468.7 yards per game.

"Toledo has been in this offense now for five years, so I think they are a little more efficient [than Oregon]," Hill said. "Oregon had a great outing against us because their quarterback was in rhythm all game. When you play against these [spread offense] teams you have to take their quarterbacks out of rhythm. Comparing Toledo to Oregon, it's going to be a lot harder to take Gradkowski out of rhythm because of his experience and knowledge of the offense. He will not get rattled."

Gradkowski has passed for 654 yards and nine touchdowns thus far, connecting with 13 receivers. Pinegar has thrown to 12 receivers. Both teams have effective running games, with UT averaging 220 yards per game to Fresno's 135.

Redshirt freshman Clint Cochran, who has played in all three UT games this season, completing 14 of 16 passes for 92 yards, will start tonight at quarterback if Gradkowski is unable to answer the bell.

Gradkowski insists the Rockets, despite their high-octane numbers, have yet to play a complete game on offense, primarily because they have rolled to big early leads against all three opponents.

"It's very tough mentally to stay sharp when you jump on teams the way we have," Gradkowski said. "You tend to get complacent and get satisfied.

"We have to forget the score and keep executing. We have to keep playing at a high level from start to finish. Anything else won't cut it against Fresno."
 

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Game Day Preview: Inside the Game
Fresno State vs. Toledo, 6 p.m. at Bulldog Stadium
An analysis by David White / The Fresno Bee

When Fresno State runs:
Fresno State running back Bryson Sumlin is turning into the next Rodney Davis: a former 1,000-yard rusher who did little as a senior. Wendell Mathis will start, but the Bulldogs want to get Sumlin rolling. Toledo's 3-4 defense uses speed to swarm the line of scrimmage. Senior linebackers Anthony Jordan and David Thomas are big-time clogs inside.

Advantage: Bulldogs



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When Toledo runs:

Don't be fooled by the "spread offense" label. Like the Bulldogs, Toledo leads with multiple backs in Trinity Dawson and Richard Davis. Former starter Scooter McDougle could return from knee surgery today. Fresno State has shown an ability to stop the run with the hard-hat combo of middle linebacker Dwayne Andrews and strong safety Josh Sherley.

Advantage: Bulldogs



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When Fresno State passes:

Teams that want to use eight-man fronts to stop the run, beware. Fresno State's Paul Pinegar had the game of his life at Oregon, throwing for 418 yards. If this game becomes a track meet, the Bulldogs will keep up. Toledo strong safety Keon Jackson is dangerous in coverage. The honors candidate has four career interception returns for touchdowns.

Advantage: Bulldogs



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When Toledo passes:

Bruce Gradkowski is the second coming of Boise State's Ryan Dinwiddie, and he runs a Broncos-like offense that will short-stuff you to death. The Rockets use a confusing mixture of formations with triple receivers and talented tight ends. Gradkowski has a quick release. The Bulldogs' front four must find a way to pressure him, or the secondary is in trouble.

Advantage: Toledo



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When Fresno State kicks:

Fresno State hasn't had a bad snap this decade. So, it was very noticeable when punter Mike Lingua had to make jumping grabs on two snaps from rookie Ken Amendola at Oregon. Not good. Toledo's Richard Davis is third in the nation with a 41.8-yard average on kick returns, boosted by a 94-yard touchdown return. A damp field could slow him.

Advantage: Toledo



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When Toledo kicks:

After kicking by committee, Toledo seems to have settled on Jason Robbins, who has made two field goals and all 22 point-after attempts. Fresno State lost star returner Clifton Smith, but Adam Jennings was quick to jump in with a 53-yard kick return at Oregon. He still struggles on punt returns. This could be the game Fresno State finally blocks one.

Advantage: Bulldogs



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Intangibles

Toledo is 3-0 and the top vote-getter among mid-major conference teams. But the Rockets haven't played a decent opponent and lack a proven record on the road. Fresno State is teeming with fury after losing its Top 25 ranking with a 37-34 loss at Oregon and is out to prove it still has the makings of a great team. Not a good time to catch the Bulldogs.

Advantage: Bulldogs



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KEY MATCHUPS

SS Keon Jackson vs. QB Paul Pinegar

Toledo's Jackson has a way of knowing where the pass is headed, and beating the receiver there. If Pinegar telegraphs one throw, you'll know it because the ball will wind up in Jackson's gloves.

TE Josh Powell vs. Fresno State's OLBs

The Rockets love to dump off the ball to tight ends such as Powell. It's up to Fresno State outside linebackers Marcus Riley, Alan Goodwin and Emanuel Sanchez to keep track of Powell across the middle, or he'll keep the chains moving.



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KEYS TO VICTORY

Toledo wins if ...

Quarterback Bruce Gradkowski is healthy and plays like the darkhorse Heisman candidate he is.

The Rockets' quick offense dictates the pace of the game.

Toledo's offensive line gives Gradkowski time to pick apart the secondary.

Fresno State wins if ...

It gets over the Oregon loss and focuses on the task at hand.

The running game develops and keeps this from being a risky shootout.

The defense wins the turnover battle, instead of dropping three surefire interceptions (see Oregon lowlights).
 
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