Sorry its short, but I got thigns to do and a I got a date tonight
Why I think Toledo is gonna win
Once again, the Toledo Rockets and the Marshall Thundering Herd will battle for the Mid-American Conference title. These two teams met for the league championship a year ago in a game played at Toledo, and the Rockets emerged from that contest with a thrilling come-from behind victory. Toledo secured its berth in this year's game as the West Division representative by knocking off Bowling Green last weekend. The Rockets had to win their final four games to have any shot of playing for the title, and they were able to accomplish that feat thanks in large part to the fact that they scored 161 points in those 16 quarters of football. They actually tied Northern Illinois for the best record in the West, but a three-point win over the Huskies two weeks ago gave Toledo the all-important tiebreaker. Like Toledo, Marshall finished with a 7-1 record in MAC contests. Aside from the league loss to Akron on November 2nd, the only other loss this season for the Thundering Herd came to Virginia Tech in September. The Herd enter this game having won three straight tilts and eight of their last nine, and they clinched a spot in this championship game back on November 23rd with narrow win at Ohio. Last weekend, the Thundering Herd recorded a 38-14 decision over Ball State in what basically was a warm up game. Despite the outcome of Saturday's showdown, both of these teams know which postseason bowl they will attend. Marshall has accepted its second consecutive bid to the GMAC Bowl, while Toledo will compete in the Motor City Bowl for the second time in as many years. This championship game marks the 40th all-time meeting between Toledo and Marshall on the gridiron, and the Rockets currently hold a 21-17-1 lead over the Thundering Herd. Toledo has won the last two meetings overall, but the Rockets are winless in their last three trips to Huntington.
No one gave Toledo much of a chance to defend its crown after Bowling Green and Northern Illinois started to roll. Then the Rockets kept on winning, then everything fell into place. NIU beat Bowling Green, then Toledo beat both the Huskies and the Falcons to get back in the MAC championship. Toledo will go back to the Motor City Bowl.
Marshall is gunning for its fifth MAC title in six years, playing Toledo for the fourth time in the MAC title game. The Herd has the same brilliant offense, but its the defense that has stepped up its play from recent seasons ranking second in the league in total defense and second in scoring defense. The Herd is signed on to play Louisville in the GMAC Bowl.
Players to watch: Last year, the focus was on the running game of Toledo vs. the passing game of Marshall. Chester Taylor destroyed the Marshall defense in last year's game rolling for 188 yards. The Rockets don't have a player like Taylor, but the running game is rolling behind Astin Martin and now, Trinity Dawson. Martin, a freshman, is the speed back adding a bit of flash to the lineup. He tore off 120 yards last week against Bowling Green and 76 against Northern Illinois taking over for the injured William Bratton. Helping to pick up the slack was Dawson who rolled for 101 yards and three touchdowns against the Falcons.
Marshall has a bit of a running game of its own with Brandon Carey and Franklin Wallace trading off big days. Carey tore off 101 yards against Ball State last week, while Franklin Wallace rumbled for 131 yards and a touchdown against Ohio two weeks ago. Opponents have scored 23.2 ppg and gained only 331.2 total ypg against a Marshall defense that has made noticeable improvement from a year ago. The strength of the unit has been its ability to shut down the pass, as the Thundering Herd have enabled opposing quarterbacks to completed less than half of their passes this season. They have yielded just nine passing touchdowns and figure to give Jones a tough challenge. Marshall has not been quite as effective against the run, as it is surrendering 4.3 ypc and has allowed 22 scores on the ground. There are several Thundering Herd defenders who deserve credit for their play this season. Duran Smith leads the team with 142 total tackles, and Chris Crocker is second with 115 stops. Jamus Martin is an impact player, as 19 of his 87 tackles have come behind the line of scrimmage.
Looking to stop the Herd running game cold will be the best linebacking tandem in the MAC. Tom Ward and David Gardner are premier run stoppers, and should prevent Carey and Wallace from doing too much. These two also have to find ways to get pressure on Leftwich and popping him if he gets out of the pocket.
While the running backs can move the ball, the superstars in the game are at quarterback. Obviously Leftwich is the game's marquee player throwing for 3,615 yards and 22 touchdowns this year, but an argument can be made that Toledo's Brian Jones is having just as good a season. Jones has throwing for 2,894 yards and 21 scores, but his forte is his accuracy leading the nation completing 71% of his passes. Toledo has scored at least 27 points in all but three of its games this season, and quarterback Brian Jones is the quiet leader of an effective offense. Last week against Bowling Green, Jones completed 17-of-24 passes for 233 yards with three touchdowns and one interception. The outstanding performance should come as no surprise, however, as Jones has been one of the nation's top signal callers this season. He leads all Division I-A quarterback with a completion rating of 71.4 percent, and his 21-6 touchdown-to- interception ratio is tremendous. While Jones is a talented player, his success this season has been aided by a pair of standout receivers. Although Donta' Green caught only two passes last week, his 176 career grabs put him at the top of the Toledo career charts. Fellow senior wideout Carl Ford has 900 receiving yards this season and has a chance to become the program's first- ever 1,000-yard receiver. The tailback position has been occupied by a pair of freshmen who have played like veterans since starting senior William Bratton fractured his ankle in October. Astin Martin and Trinity Dawson, who both ran for over 100 yards last week, will carry the load once again on Saturday if Bratton can't play.
Toledo will win if... it can withstand the inevitable Marshall run. Leftwich will control the game, and hit on several big plays. Toledo can't stop that. What it can do is not panic when Leftwich gets the home crowd behind him. If the Rockets can control the clock with the running game, and Jones finds a way to come up with some big plays of his own, they can pull this off. As cold as this sounds, Toledo's main hope is to find a way to hammer Leftwich play after play after play. This is football, and this is the championship. If the quarterback is wounded and can't move, you have to find a way to drill him. The Rockets should blitz Leftwich and force him to try and move. He'll pick apart the Rocket defense by reading the blitzes, but Toledo can't let him stand in the pocket with time to fire.
Marshall will win if... Leftwich stays in the game. He's a warrior, and there's no way you can drag him off the field, but if he further injures his leg and really can't play, then Marshall will struggle. Toledo is the best team Marshall has faced since Virginia Tech. This is a confident, and overall better, team than Marshall. What Toledo doesn't have is No. 7. Byron Leftwich threw for 401 yards on 35-of-42 passing last weekend to become the Mid-American Conference's career offense leader. While those numbers are staggering, they become even more impressive considering that Leftwich once again played in severe pain caused by an injured ankle. Despite starting only nine of the team's games this season, the superstar signal-caller once again put up monster numbers. In addition to completing 68.4 percent of his passes for 3,615 yards, Leftwich has thrown 22 touchdowns against only eight interceptions. His arm strength, toughness, and smarts make him the arguably the nation's premier passer. On the receiving end of Leftwich's throws is a talented trio of wideouts. Denero Marriott has hauled in a team-high 69 balls for 769 and four catches, while Josh Davis has posted 67 catches for a team-high 1,066 yards and five catches. Darius Watts rounds out the trio with 59 grabs for 863 yards and a team-high 10 scores. Brandon Carey leads all Marshall ball-carriers with 605 rushing yards to go along with 38 catches. The Thundering Herd, who are averaging 33.6 ppg and 512.8 ypg of total offense, will provide the Rockets' defense with its greatest challenge of the season.
What will happen: Toledo is a tremendous team. It has a great defense with wonderful linebackers, a great running game, a sensational quarterback, and as Northern Illinois found out, an explosive element. Marshall can't stop the run, so the Rocket running game should be able to move the ball. The Herd will be in for a big scare, but this is a big game and this is in Huntington.
FINAL SCORE Toledo 35 Marshall 28