Tommy Gold NHL 2009/2010 - Picks Tracking

[TommyGold]

2009.10.24 results:

Boston Bruins @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators ML -124 (1.81) 5Dimes Pinny DONE (3-4: LOSS)
New York Rangers @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) +140 (2,40) Bookmaker Paddy Power DONE (5-4: LOSS)
Washington Capitals @ New York Islanders: Over 6 -104 (1.96) 5Dimes Pinny DONE (2-3: LOSS)
Florida Panthers @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +135 (2.35) 5Dimes Pinny DONE (5-1: WIN)
Detroit Red Wings @ Colorado Avalanche: Colorado Avalanche ML +140 (2.40) 5Dimes bet365 DONE (3-1: WIN)


2009.10.24 finished with a 2-3 and -0,25 units lost/5 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 16-27 (-5.17 units lost/43 units risked)

 

[TommyGold]

New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens PL -1.5 +165 (2.65) The Greek - The youth of the Islanders will not be enough against a rising Canadiens team, with enough experience and having good results lately. They have the best team and they should show it tonight.

 

[TommyGold]

2009.10.26 results:

New York Islanders @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens PL -1.5 +165 (2.65) The Greek (3-2: LOSS)

2009.10.24 finished with a 0-1 and -1 unit lost/1 unit risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 16-28 (-6.17 units lost/44 units risked)

 

[TommyGold]

Colorado Avalanche @ Edmonton Oilers

Today we will have a match between two different teams, but with one common problem. There are a lot of injuries in both sides. Colorado will start with Anderson, so far the best goaltender in NHL. We can expect him to slow down with his performance, however, I don't expect it today. Colorado can be described as a road team. They are 4-1 in regular time and 0-2 on SO. If we check, they won at regular time in Boston, Detroit, and so on. Even at home, they are 4-0 in 4 games. So, what can we say about this team? One of the best so far. And why? Because all the players in the roster are making their part. And this will be a key today, where they have few men down, as Edmonton.

Khabibulin will be Edmonton's goalie. I like him, however I think that he still have to get more game time with the Oilers jersey to get his best game. They are good at home with 5-1 and that's why they are favourite. Yet their victories were against teams with some problems and they are terrible on the road.

I see all the value on Colorado. A team that can cover any absent player as all the roster is playing well. A team that is playing pretty well at road too. A team with big advantage at defense. A team with confidence and secure of what they can do, like winning this game. Edmonton can play pretty well too at home, however they didn't proved nothing yet and the Oilers come from 3 away losses, where they played a poor hockey. So, we can't let this one pass.


Pick: Colorado Avalanche ML +115 (2.15) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Detroit Red Wings @ Vancouver Canucks

Since they lost D. Sedin, the Canucks have changed the way they play, with 5 unders in a row. They are playing thoughtfully, lurking for an opportunity to score. With 3 wins in a row and knowing that they best game has been the defense, as they had decreased their offensive power, they will do what they can to face the desperate Red Wings. With Luongo returning for their best games and the will to win this one, they will be smart enough to make their best game, playing quietly and waiting for an opportunity.

The Red Wings come from 3 straight losses. They are facing problems, as their game is based on offensive and they are not producing the expected. They are struggling on every game they play away from home and they need to bounce back from this bad moment. This team have very experienced players and I expect them to play with their intelligence. They can't go to this game as they did when they faced the Sabres and got a blowout loss. Osgood will start today and we can expect today a good performance, as the Canucks are not at their best on offense.

So, I expect a very tactic game, and this two teams are getting more unders than overs lately, which is a trend I believe will continue tonight.


Pick: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

St. Louis Blues @ Carolina Hurricanes

We can trust in the Hurricanes playing at home where they've got their two wins this season. They lost two other games, one against the Flyers in a hot streak, the other one against the title holders. After a bad display on the road with a 0-4 loss and 6 straight losses, it is up to Carolina to take this game to change the course of things, thanks to their perseverance.

The Hurricanes will face today a team that as surpassed all expectations on the last season and this year we are a little bit unable were to put it or label it against their competition, because they have been hard to read. They seem to be determined to fight for the playoffs, however, after two big games in Sweden, they have a 2-5 losing record, having still something to prove.

I expect a confident team that can get the win, that needs to win this game and I think they can deal with this pressure. On the other hand, there is a team that is not reliable, still trying to find out their identity.


Pick: Carolina Hurricanes 3Way (1X2) +115 (2.15) Bookmaker; CAR 3Way (1X2) +135 (2.35) NordicBet, Expekt, Betsson

 

[TommyGold]

Phoenix Coyotes @ Columbus Blue Jackets

Columbus has been brilliant at home, with a 3-0 winning record. They base their game on defense, a very tight game, which makes them a very hard team to play against. In Phoenix, they were able to deliver the Coyotes their first home loss, by 2-0. Today, they host the Coyotes and the home crowd will be a nice edge for the Blue Jackets.

Phoenix was pointed as one of the weakest teams in the league, yet they have been able to surprise this early season, having won on the road against the current champions. Eventually then came the losses, and also some victories in between, but those were mostly in OT, and they are now in a 0-2 losing streak.

I expekt the Blue Jackets at their normal behavior, taking over and controling the game, against one the weakest teams in the NHL, that after a nice start, are lowering their performance level and showing what was expected for this year.


Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) +110 (2.10) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

2009.10.27 results:

Colorado Avalanche @ Edmonton Oilers: Colorado Avalanche ML +115 (2.15) Bookmaker (0-3: WIN)
Detroit Red Wings @ Vancouver Canucks: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) Bookmaker (4-5: LOSS)

2009.10.27 finished with a 1-1 and +0,15 unit2 won/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 17-29 (-6.02 units lost/46 units risked)

 

[TommyGold]

Colorado Avalanche @ Calgary Flames

Tonight we will pick a side just because of the odds value. The disregard from the bookies about Colorado performance, is like saying that there is a lot of value on them. I know that some day they have to stop to crush bookie's wallets. They keep considering the Avalanche as dogs, but they just keep giving money to those that believed in them. So, we can't stop now. Tonight we will go with Colorado as big dogs, we have to take the benefits of their "momentum" as long as we can.

About the game, it will be a hard game, Calgary is playing well, with many players impressing on the offense. So far, they lost at home only to Dallas. So, if they can lose with a team that hasn't found yet their game, why not take this shot? Colorado is a cohesive tea, and now combine a good defense with good offense.


Pick: Colorado Avalanche ML +165 (2.65) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Los Angeles Kings @ San Jose Sharks

San Jose will play at home after 6 road games. They we're not bad at all and I think that it was a positive road trip. They are starting to "acquire their engine" and today, returning to play at home, I think the Kings will suffer because of it. They have a team better than last year, Heatley can make the difference easily.

LA Kings is playing quite well. However, I can see a spot here: Kings lost on the road against strong opponents. Sharks won most of their games by 2 or more goals. Despite the moment of the Kings, i think the Sharks will not miss this opportunity to show their supporters that they are a contenders to Stanley Cup, despite this early part of the season.


Pick: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

2009.10.28 results:

St. Louis Blues @ Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina Hurricanes 3Way (1X2) +115 (2.15) Bookmaker (2-5: LOSS)
Phoenix Coyotes @ Columbus Blue Jackets: Columbus Blue Jackets 3Way (1X2) +110 (2.10) Bookmaker (1-4: LOSS)
Colorado Avalanche @ Calgary Flames: Colorado Avalanche ML +165 (2.65) Bookmaker (2-3: WIN)
Los Angeles Kings @ San Jose Sharks: San Jose Sharks PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker (2-1: LOSS)

2009.10.28 finished with a 1-3 and -1,35 units won/4 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 18-32 (-7,37 units lost/50 units risked)

 

[TommyGold]

Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning

Tampa will host today the team that gave them the worst loss, 7-1. So, this game will have a "revenge" factor. Tampa Bay lost at Ottawa and now they host them, so this game will be different for sure. Tampa Bay is a "special team". They can be weak, but they can do pretty things at home, as we saw a few days ago when they won 5-2 against the Sharks.

The Senators are playing well making so far a good season. The only losses they have this season, in Regulation Time, were against the Rangers and the Penguins. If Senators plays against a team on the road with the level of Tampa team, I would go with Senators without doubt.

However, this Tampa Bay is a special team at home. They have talented players, but the team doesn't show their maximum potential on the road, they usually only show their talent at home. Therefore I see an opportunity here, Tampa Bay wants revenge for sure, and if they are in that mode at home... they can blowout anyone.


Pick: Tampa Bay Lightning ML -110 (1.91) 5Dimes

 

[TommyGold]

Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers

A week ago, Atlanta wasn't able to stop Washington. Now, they will face them again. The difference for this game, is just one. Kovalchuk. The Trashers star suffered an injury and will miss action for a few weeks. He was the key in this last match up, scoring 2 goals. Now, we will be out, increasing the gap between these two teams.

The Capitals faced some problems, losing 4 in a row, but now they are with 5 straight wins. They've got confidence, and Semin helped to make the difference. Today, they know they can crush Atlanta, a team they beat only by one goal. With the knowlegde about Kovalchuk miss, they will not tolerate a non-winning game.

The Trashers have done a good season so far for them. They are with 0-2 losing record on their last 2 home games, however, it were against the Capitals and the Sharks. They fight every game and try to keep the games close, seeking their opportunities.

The key for this match, will be the injury of Kovalchuk. He was and still is the best player of the Trashers, the one that can help a lot his team to keep games close. With his absence, I think that Atlanta will struggle a lot in next few games, specially against a team with so much offensive power as the Capitals.


Pick: Washington Capitals PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Phoenix Coyotes @ St. Louis Blues

This a B2B game for both teams. St. Louis won easily yesterday at Carolina by 5-2 and they return home today. The Blues have already faced Phoenix on the road and they lost 3-2 on OT. When they won, they do it with a great lead and I think that they want to snap this L-W-L-W record on their last games and Phoenix is the right team for the Blues to score another win.

On the other hand, the Coyotes will end today their road trip and yesterday they only won in the end of the game against the Columbus Blue Jackets, with two goals in power play, and that was a tiring game. Like I stated yesterday, this Phoenix team despite having a nice start, they aren't a top team and I expect a flat spot for them on this game, their third straight on the road and I remember that of their last 5 wins, 3 were on OT/SO and I expect that yesterday game will take a toll on them.


Pick: St. Louis Blues 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Vancouver Canucks @ Los Angeles Kings

In this match up we have two teams with the same numbers, but in a different order: LA Kings is 4-1 at home, Vancouver is 1-4 away. So, we can get an easy conclusion. The first are good at home so far, the others still have to find how to face road games.

Los Angeles is making an impressive season so far. At home they only lost their first game of the season. Even with that game, they have 5.2 goals scored at home. Impressive for a team that started the season with a label saying "no playoff contenders".

Vancouver lost the last game at home against the Detroit Red Wings, result of an awful third period. In their road games, they usually struggle a lot, allowing 3.40 goals per game, and scoring only 2. Thus this itself gives us almost an average difference of a puck line.

Today Raycroft will start for the Canucks, something that gives me no confidence on their defense. Luong allowed 5 goals against the Red Wings, but was playing pretty well, and those 5 goals were a consequence of a bad team game. Quick will start for the Kings and so far, he has been one of the keys of the success path of his team.

For this game, I can understand why the Kings are a little bit the favorites, since they are on a B2B game. It can be hard, but all their games have been hard, as they are a team to kill. Their home advantage this season seems something big, and the confidence of the team should be enough to face a team with lots of injuries, struggles a lot away, and comes from a bad loss.


Pick: Los Angeles Kings PL -1.5 +200 (3.00) The Greek



A believe this game already started (this Daylight Saving Time hiatus is "killing" me), if that is the case, my apologies:

Detroit Red Wings @ Edmonton Oilers

Now, there is the right moment to take Oilers. There are few reasons to take this one. First of all, we've got here a huge odds value. The home dog is 5-2-0-1 at home. The last game was at home and a defeat after a 2 road trip with no wins. So, they've got to take this game seriously, specially after zero goals scored in the last 2 games. And I believe this team can turn things around. It is not the kind of team to letdown their arms. After the last game loss, they will give their supporters a good game. I think the fact that Khabibulin will be the goaltender, will help the team, as he alternates his performances between bad and good ones. And today, it's a day for a good performance, like we has done so long this season, at home. At home, Edmonton is more powerful at offense, but their advantage is in making difficult to opponents to score.

Detroit is coming from a win, an away win! 5-4 at Vancouver, for a team that is disappointing every one, is a good win. However, this team is not the first good win they've got, but after those wins they usually get back to a poor game. Maybe the fact that they have a old roster, can explain it. They give all they can in one game and need a week to recovery (pretty bad :evil. Yet, the truth is that we can explain this team: every time we believe that they will start their engines and start to play good hockey and win games, they come and prove us that we were wrong. The bigger problem is they can't defend when playing away. Even on their only win on the road on their last game, they allowed 4 goals to Vancouver. To help it, they will put their backup goalie in the nets, Howard. They expect that he will give good luck, however I think this will be a mistake, as this team needs a strong goalie, mentally speaking.


Pick: Edmonton Oilers ML +146 (2.46) 5Dimes

 

[TommyGold]

2009.10.29 results:

Washington Capitals @ Atlanta Thrashers: Washington Capitals PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker (3-4: LOSS)
Ottawa Senators @ Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning ML -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (5-2: WIN)
Phoenix Coyotes @ St. Louis Blues: St. Louis Blues 3Way (1X2) +120 (2.20) Bookmaker (0-2: LOSS)
Vancouver Canucks @ Los Angeles Kings: Los Angeles Kings PL -1.5 +195 (2.95) Bookmaker (1-2: LOSS)

2009.10.29 finished with a 1-3 and -2,09 units lost/4 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 19-35 (-9,46 units lost/54 units risked)



For today, I've already 2 picks, will see if I can unearth anything else in the next hour:

Vancouver Canucks vs Anaheim Ducks: Anaheim Ducks 3Way (1X2) -105 (1.95) Bookmaker; ANA 3Way +105 (2.05) Expekt, NordicBet

Colorado Avalanche @ San Jose Sharks: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes

 

[TommyGold]

2009.10.30 results:

Vancouver Canucks @ Anaheim Ducks: Anaheim Ducks 3Way (1X2) -105 (1.95) Bookmaker (7-2: WIN)
Colorado Avalanche @ San Jose Sharks: Under 5.5 -110 (1.91) 5Dimes (3-1: WIN)

2009.10.30 finished with a 2-0 and +1,86 units won/2 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 21-35 (-7,6 units lost/56 units risked)



For today, 2009.10.31, I've 2 early picks:

Carolina Hurricanes @ Philadelphia Flyers

In this game, we will have a team in a "letdown spot". Carolina comes from a 7 losses in a row cold streak. Between that losses they tried to turn things around, fighting with all they've got, but without any luck, losing those in OT. This team needs a spot to turn things around and that spot will be difficult to appear outside from a home game, against a team with a poor road record. So, tonight, we will have a no confident team. In road games, they are allowing 4.17 goals per game. A huge problem against teams with a good offensive record. And in the other end, they score only few more than 2 goals per game.

Philadelphia will have here an opportunity to give a blowout win and to show to everyone that they are a strong contender. Despite the last 2 losses they are not without confidence. That losses were against the biggest contenders to the Stanley's Cup. They are aware of their capabilities, and how good they can be specially against teams that gives them room to their offensive.

So, today I expect the Flyers to return to blowout wins. They are a team that can do it easily, the game just has to go under their control. Carolina is a breakdown team right now, hoping for better days and with no confidence for this game. Their road records shows their fragility as visitors.

Pick: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker



Atlanta Thrashers @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Atlanta Thrashers @ Ottawa Senators

Atlanta is a hard team to beat, that's the reality. However, despite their last result, that can be considered good for what i said, it do not shows the latest reality. They lost only by one goal, but they were losing by 3 almost all the game.

Ottawa lost their last 2 games at home and for this team, with a strong home factor, this is something not normal. The value on this game will be that the Thrashers are not in their best "mode", as they come from a 4 losses in a row cold streak. With their best player out, they will have to wait for a better game to turn it around as the Senators are a strong team, particulary at home.


Pick: Ottawa Senators 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens

Toronto finally got their first win on this road trip. 3 games ago they won on the road on Anaheim against the Ducks, starting to get their confidence back. However in the next 2 games, they lost in OT, thus they will be on this game with 2 lost games in a row. It's hard to talk about the Maple Leafs, everything seems to fail. First, they score few goals, allowing too much goals in return. Then they won, but they failed in keeping the wins flowing, losing 2 games after the only win in this season, in OT.

Montreal, had also problems in this start of the season. They have a good roster, but the results are late to come. Yet, before losing the last 2 games on the road, they've got 4 home wins. It was the turning point of the season, at least it seems, as they have for the first time this season a positive record. Curious is the fact that in those 4 wins, 3 were on OT.

So for this game, a canadian derby, it will be very important to have confidence. Montreal has it, they got lucky in last home games, their roster is way more experienced. Toronto lost to hold their "momentum" after their first win and they are without luck. So, I can't see Toronto with capability to discuss this game, even if it is a derby.


Pick: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker

 

[TommyGold]

2009.10.31 results:

Carolina Hurricanes @ Philadelphia Flyers: Philadelphia Flyers PL -1.5 +170 (2.70) Bookmaker (6-1: WIN)
Atlanta Thrashers @ Ottawa Senators: Ottawa Senators 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (1-3: LOSS)
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens: Montreal Canadiens 3Way (1X2) +100 (2.00) Bookmaker (5-4: LOSS)

2009.10.31 finished with a 1-2 and -0,3 units lost/3 units risked.
NHL 2009-2010 season record: 22-37 (-7,9 units lost/59 units risked)