as i've mentioned before, i'm mainly a college capper and i'll have a little something more to offer up come the fall, but i have been playing with baseball totals for the past couple of seasons, trying to study up on watching ie and various other successful totals cappers apply their theories and then try to add my own perspective.
in this regard, thought i would post up a fundamental concept useful when working baseball totals that i'm sure is old hat to some of our resident pros but might be interesting for some of our novices. when considering a game total remember that, in setting the line in a game with a heavy home favorite, the linesmaker has already predicted in his number that a game will only go 17 half-innings (or "frames") as opposed to 18. similiarly, in a game with a heavy road favorite, the man's number is based on 18 probable frames. may not seem like much, but those three outs or 1/18 of the game account for almost 6% of the scoring opportunities. in an area of betting where i seem to see the most value finding an odd hook in games with totals between 7 to 9- runs, i think most will agree that is a significant percentage.
enough with my elementary baseball mind, i see only one for tonight and that has already been posted by jack.
sf/la over 8-u: feel like this number should be at least 9. adams 4-0 to the over this year, 5.15 era, 6.35 era L5, 16.94 mba L3. estes 4.95 road era this year, L3 era 4.50 and mba 14.00. one of my favorite parameters is game with totals set under 9 where the starting pitchers have combined L3 mba's over 30. add to that estes last faced la 6/26 and allowed 8 earned runs in six innings, and is 5-1 to the over vs. la since last season. ump and weather not much factors. bullpens no major factor but both below full strength. nice to get a win with 9 and no juice on the play. (btw, all my baseball plays are one unit.) good luck to all.
in this regard, thought i would post up a fundamental concept useful when working baseball totals that i'm sure is old hat to some of our resident pros but might be interesting for some of our novices. when considering a game total remember that, in setting the line in a game with a heavy home favorite, the linesmaker has already predicted in his number that a game will only go 17 half-innings (or "frames") as opposed to 18. similiarly, in a game with a heavy road favorite, the man's number is based on 18 probable frames. may not seem like much, but those three outs or 1/18 of the game account for almost 6% of the scoring opportunities. in an area of betting where i seem to see the most value finding an odd hook in games with totals between 7 to 9- runs, i think most will agree that is a significant percentage.
enough with my elementary baseball mind, i see only one for tonight and that has already been posted by jack.
sf/la over 8-u: feel like this number should be at least 9. adams 4-0 to the over this year, 5.15 era, 6.35 era L5, 16.94 mba L3. estes 4.95 road era this year, L3 era 4.50 and mba 14.00. one of my favorite parameters is game with totals set under 9 where the starting pitchers have combined L3 mba's over 30. add to that estes last faced la 6/26 and allowed 8 earned runs in six innings, and is 5-1 to the over vs. la since last season. ump and weather not much factors. bullpens no major factor but both below full strength. nice to get a win with 9 and no juice on the play. (btw, all my baseball plays are one unit.) good luck to all.
