Totals Question

[#cruncher]

Just trying to expand my knowledge and awareness of the game here if any of you don't mind sharing.

Question
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No matter how enticing the stats may look for a total play (U or O) for a particular matchup...does anyone ever shy away from or simple don't play because of the particular 'park' the game is being played in. I'm talking maybe short fence, long fence, or anything else for that matter?

Thanks in advance.

 

[Lucena]

good question ...

the oddsmakers always take the stadium into consideration so

in short,

on my end


the answer is no


the most important factor in an over under is starting pitching

i would suggest tracking 5 or so starters during the year initially

look at their recent performances compared to the season and career performances

this will be a much better guide for you

it takes a lot of work, but if you only pick 5 or so starters you can get a good feel for what im talking about

this is why i dont play many totals until pitchers have pitched 5 or 6 games

good luck ...

 

[LordofBalls]

#cruncher,

do I play or not play a total based on the park?

short answer... no

new Yankee stadium is currently making me believe in Over bets there only...

all other parks, the factors I look at are pitchers, their history v players on opposing tm (if there is anything substantial), and weather conditions.... wind blowing hard one way or another...

Wrigley field (cubs) med. wind (in or out) can be a big factor for sure...

hang in there... lucena, gsp, a few other good cappers to provide good picks and insight for me
good luck whatever u decide....

LoB

 

[#cruncher]

Thanks Lucena & LOB. Should have thought about it all being factored in by the OM...although I had started to wonder about the new Yankee Stadium. The comparison of pitchers...especially from overall to current does seem like one of the best approaches & also how well pitchers do against certain clubs or vice versa.

I guess this might lead to another question which would include totals in all sports...and that is in finding value. Its seems real value in sports (especially football) comes from teams with tradition/reputation or vice versa...mainly being than the man is usually going to 'make you pay' for having the name team. Obviously it also comes from player bias/prejudice etc...as some guys are gonna back their team no matter what the price.

So I don't really see how there is any real value in totals although I know of some guys that do really well...including you 2. Just been curious about this for a while?