Totals Week #9

[hawkeye]

Plays 43-40-Leans 13-5-Small college 4-0.

Are we going to have our 1st game of the year with a posted line of 80? Trouble is I still like it as an over-wait and see. I actually see 2 unders on my board so far this week but it is slim pickens again this week.. gl:0074

 

[Master Capper]

Hawk,

Have you ever used this theory when projecting your number?

I add up the total offense for every team in 1A which is 120 teams

Then I divide this large number by 120 to get the average total offense for the week

Then take a matchup of two teams say OSU-Wisky and add their total offense stats together and minus out the total offense to get a sum.

Take the sum total and divide by 7.5 to get a total offensive score for the game.

Repeat same process with total defense and add sum from total defense to sum for total offense and divide by two to get total for game

Example (hypothetical) Total average offense for all 120 teams in 1A for this week is 400.00

Wisc total offense 500
Ohio State total offense 300
Sum 850
minus 400
sum 450
total offense 450/7.5
Offense Projected Total is 60

Average total defense for all 120 teams in 1A is 400 this week
Wisc total defense average 350
Ohio State total defense 300
Sum 750 yards
minus 400 yards
Sum 350 yards
total defense 350/7.5
Defensive Projected total 46.7

Total Offense 60
plus Total Defense 46.7
Sum 106.7
106.7/2

Projected total for the game 53 points

I have had alot of success the past two weeks in hitting unders using this system

 

[hawkeye]

Wow interesting- bet it takes awhile to get thru all the games. My question is who stats do you use for total offense and total defense figures--I know of at least 3 different sets of stats for these and none are the same. Fo example where do you have Ohio State ranked in total defene? And where do you have Fla St ranked in total offense?

 

[hawkeye]

And the 7.5 comes from where?

 

[Master Capper]

I have been using the NCAA.org stats, but last week also ran the teams based on their results in only conference games. This eliminates the games against 1AA teams where stats tend to be inflated.

Florida State ranked 38th in the country in total offense with average of 431.14

Ohio State ranked 16th in total D with an average of 304.86

7.5 was used by linemakers in Vegas many years ago according to a book I recently read. Seven is used for NFL, but 7.5 is used for college because of increased scoring in comparison to pro's.

The totals last week came out within 1 or 2 points of the opening total of nearly 50% of the games last week. The biggest deviation in lines last week was on the Northwestern and PSU game as I had the total projected at 9 points higher than the opening number.

 

[hawkeye]

Sounds like good numbers--I have Fla St at 38 on off and OhSt at 11 on def. 7.5 is an intersting number-one that can probably be argured one way or the other. Stick with your system and give it a run for the rest of the year and see how it does over time. I have 3 systems I use plus my gut--too much time to explain them all--if they match up I have a play. This week only 4 of them do right now. Been a wild year this year--overs seem to be winning out. GL and I hope you do well totals are fun to bet! Will be looking for your plays.

 

[hawkeye]

ND ov 62-gl

 

[hawkeye]

Adding:
Lville un 44'-gl

 

[LA Burns]

good luck this weekend and the rest of the season hawkeye - and glad to hear that your recent trip to the Big Easy was enjoyable

burns

 

[hawkeye]

It was--went to a place called the Crazy Lobster right on the whraf by the Hilton--good food-good music and good views. Had an excellent cigar rolled as I watched from the New Orlenas Cigar Company right on Bouron Street.

 

[hawkeye]

Not much out there guys--leans only for now-maybe a play or two from these later::shrug:

CMich ov 50--Ind ov 60--BC un 52--BG un 39'-SMU ov 58'-E Car ov 56'--GA un 49-Tenn un 43'-UTEP ov 57-Bay ov 79-Ute un 47'-ULL ov 60'-KS ov 63'

Later & GL

 

[joefrog91]

Figured Ok st or K State would be on your list.

Ok, I'm blind. Missed the KS at the end.

 

[hawkeye]

ok St is--KState I am thinking about as an under. Close to making it a play--I have several of which K St is one which I am considering a play but is not on my lean list. gl

 

[joefrog91]

Gotcha. For some reason didn't realize who they were playing.

 

[hawkeye]

Yep I listed it as Baylor.

 

[hawkeye]

Baylor going ot 80?

Adding Duke ov 53'--gl

 

[Mr. Poon]

any thoughts on the Wash/Zona and Clem/GaTech games?

 

[hawkeye]

Some thoughts but probably none of them any good.

Clem--got it at 65-pass
Wash-70-right at the number-pass

gl

 

[hawkeye]

I have some small college totals in my other post. GL.

 

[c20916]

Hawk,



Wisc total offense 500
Ohio State total offense 300
Sum 850
minus 400
sum 450
total offense 450/7.5
Offense Projected Total is 60

Average total defense for all 120 teams in 1A is 400 this week
Wisc total defense average 350
Ohio State total defense 300
Sum 750 yards
minus 400 yards
Sum 350 yards
total defense 350/7.5
Defensive Projected total 46.7

Total Offense 60
plus Total Defense 46.7
Sum 106.7
106.7/2

I know this is just an example, but Wisc total def 350 Ohio State total def 300 Sum 750? where did the extra 100 yards come from? Same with offense 500 +300 =850?