Tournament Winner Odds

[thadchr]

Who do you guys like?

My early favorites are:
Florida +525
Michigan +2200
Wisconsin +2600

Using lines from 5Dimes. I think there is some value in the Florida pick at that number, and I've seen worse odds at some other places. Obviously the other two are long(er) shots, but I think Michigan is as good as anyone if they can get/stay hot, and Wiscy has a fairly easy road to the Elite 8 at least, and you never know from there (also a slight homer pick).

I also think Kansas at +1500 (if you believe Embiid can come back at full strength) and Kentucky at +5000 (if you believe Calipari can get these guys playing together for 6 games) are reasonable bets.

I realize that I'm ultimately picking against the "hot" 4 seeds in Michigan State and Lousivllle, and I really do think they both have a shot to win it all, but I just think that they've become such crowd favorites that there is some decent value on these other teams if you can grab them early.

Thoughts? :toast:

 

[thadchr]

Also, if you're a more conservative type bettor and/or have the money to lay for the span of the tournament, there's a prop at 5Dimes that a 1-4 seed wins the whole thing going off at -750 right now. That may seem steep but still looks like almost a value play to me, and I could see the line moving up in the coming days. Other than a miraculous run from the aforementioned Kentucky or maybe an Oklahoma State, I just don't see anyone else with a real chance at all.

 

[thadchr]

One more bet I like a lot from 5Dimes that I probably won't bother playing due to the future bets I've already placed, but one that I thought was worth sharing because I see some value in it...

A #1 or #2 seed wins the tourney, +103 :0074

Obviously, you're getting the favorite (Florida), all the other one seeds, and Kansas, Michigan, and Wiscy, all teams who I think have the tools to make a run. Once again, you'd essentially be betting against Louisville and Michigan State by playing this (obviously I'm oversimplifying some as there are of course other teams that could win it), but at positive money, I think I like the odds here.