Tourney Props

[thadchr]

Anyone found any exceptional props for the tourney starting tomorrow?

Olympic has a bunch of props for every first round game, props on how many games each conference will win, and of course odds for each team to make the Elite 8, Final 4, Finals, and to win the dance.

What jumps out, and why?:0corn

 

[thadchr]

Think I may have found one of my own:

Will a 13 seed win at least one game? Yes -155

Doesn't look too sweet at first, but I honestly think all of the 13 seeds this year have a real chance of getting a win. Without having to actually pick the upset, I think this will cash. Thoughts?

 

[IX_Bender]

I know you have 4 shots to win, but the odds are not in your favor with laying that high chalk.


Three of the four #13 seeds offer better than 4/1 odds outright on the ML. Therefore if you play all four and one of those three wins, then you get a higher payout than laying -155. (Assuming you lose the other three, if more than one wins, its a big, big payout)

The only way it works in your favor is if Siena wins out as they are only ~+250.

Id price that wager in the -120 - -130 range, but no higher. GL on your play.

 

[ppabart]

Just my personal opinion....

I think too many people get sucked in by bets like this one, simply because they have "multiple options" to win. Very well put IX.

 

[Godzilla 1]

If that's the case - you would think the play is the other way.

 

[thadchr]

Good analysis IX. I think I may actually play all four 13 seeds of the ML, as I wouldn't be altogether shocked if two got wins.

2 more that jumped out... team props:

Purdue to make Elite 8 +625
Stanford to make Final 4 +435

Thoughts?

 

[IX_Bender]

Normally wouldnt give myself the jinx, so to speak, but part of my madness betting is to play one or two teams to win it all from the start.


After breaking down the brackets for strength, quality, and matchup potential Ive narrowed down my possibilities to just a handful.

Taking odds on favorites to win just isnt worth it IMO. Kansas at +220 or UNC at +175 doesnt do much for me. Other shops out there have odds that are 2x that so it pays to shop around and buy early. Try to focus on the middle tier teams that have legitimate shots of making the final four. Never play two teams in the same bracket and dont play more than a couple.


Kansas at better than +550
Louisville at 25/1
Stanford at 25/1
UCLA has the easiest path to the final four but at only 4/1 seems marginal. Plus the injury factor and I weigh somewhat on heavy freshman performance (probably moot since the Melo days, but alas...)

 

[thadchr]

Four more potentials. Looking for last minute thoughts.:SIB

UCLA to win more games than NC -115
Georgetown to win more games than Duke -115
Notre Dame to win more games than Michigan State -135
Temple to win more games than George Mason -110
:00hour

 

[IX_Bender]

Four more potentials. Looking for last minute thoughts.:SIB

UCLA to win more games than NC -115

Wierd, I just put that bet in 5 minutes ago at -105.
Again, UCLA has the easiest path due to the weakest bracket by my calculations.