one thing ive noticed about nfl lines is more often than not.....if line looks to good.....just play the side that looks good....seems to work more often than not.
i think that most of us ...including me....when we see an off or goofy line, first thing we think is why....what is the reason??
is it a sucker line....is vegas baiting us in...and i know all of us dont ever want to be on the same side as all the suckers.
most of us arent goin to bet into the bad line.....we think we will be on the house's side, which should be the right side.
well what i want to do is track how these vegas gifts do the rest of the way....ill make my own line on each game....line i put out will be very simple....ill make my line fall in a range of 3 pts...since im no expert....just basing it on won/loss records of each team and factoring in 3-pts for home field.....if there is a 3 pt difference from my line to actual line then that will qualify as a vegas gift....my thinking is that these vegas gifts will win more often than not, because vegas plays on the minds of all of us nfl bettors...the line-makers are experts and knows how most bettors think.
onto this week....
oak [4-2]at kc. [3-4]......my line oak. pick to -3
actual line....oak -3
no-play.
chic.[2-4] at minn.[1-5]....my line minn. pick to -2
actual line....minn.-1.5
no play.
atl.[3-3] at n.o.[6-1].....my line n.o. -5 to -8
actual line.....n.o.-4
n.o. would qualify as a vegas gift...how can a 6-1 team be favored at home by only 4 pts over a 3-3 team....again im just keepin this simple....forgetting all let-down or due to lose theories...plus atl. has looked better than a 3-3 team.
play on n.o.
cleve.[3-4] at nyj.[2-4].....my line....nyj. -p to -3
actual line nyj.-3
no play.
pitt[3-3] at balt.[3-3].....my line balt pick to -3.
actual line pitt.-2.5 circled
no play do to circle....injuries.
det.[2-4] at buff.[4-3]......my line....buff.-6 to -9
actual line...buff.-7.5
no play.
tbay[5-2] at car. [3-4].....my line....tbay-1 to -4
actual line tbay -7.5
carolina qualifies as a vegas gift....
play on carolina.
sea.[1-5] at dallas[3-4].....my line....dallas -4 to -7
actual line dallas-2.5
dallas qualifies as a vegas gift.
play on dallas.
tenn[2-4] at cinn[0-6].....my line tenn. pick to -3.
actual line. tenny-5.5
cinn. would qualify as a vegas gift.
play on cinn.
ariz.[4-2] at sfran[4-2]....my line....sfran. -2to -5
actual line sfran -8.5
ariz. would qualify as a vegas gift.
play on ariz.
den.[5-2] at ne. [3-3].....my line denver pick to -3
actual line ne.-3
denver would qualify as a vegas gift.
play on denver.
hou.[1-5] at jax.[3-3].....my line....jax. -5 to -8
actual line...jax.-11
hou. qualifies as vegas gift.
play on hou.
ind.[4-2] at wash.[2-5]......my line indy -2 to -5
actual line wash. pick
indy. qualifies as vegas gift.
play on indy.
list of all vegas gift plays.....
new orleans-4
car.+7.5
cinn.+5.5
dallas-2.5
ariz-8.5
den.+3
hou.+11
indy. pick.
so lets see how these gifts turn out....again these are plays based on just lookin at current records of each team and factoring in home field advantage to line....all trends,power rankings, let-down theories, due to win/lose etc. are thrown out the window.
if anyone has seen any i missed or dont agree with feel free to let me know.
gluck, burgh..
i think that most of us ...including me....when we see an off or goofy line, first thing we think is why....what is the reason??
is it a sucker line....is vegas baiting us in...and i know all of us dont ever want to be on the same side as all the suckers.
most of us arent goin to bet into the bad line.....we think we will be on the house's side, which should be the right side.
well what i want to do is track how these vegas gifts do the rest of the way....ill make my own line on each game....line i put out will be very simple....ill make my line fall in a range of 3 pts...since im no expert....just basing it on won/loss records of each team and factoring in 3-pts for home field.....if there is a 3 pt difference from my line to actual line then that will qualify as a vegas gift....my thinking is that these vegas gifts will win more often than not, because vegas plays on the minds of all of us nfl bettors...the line-makers are experts and knows how most bettors think.
onto this week....
oak [4-2]at kc. [3-4]......my line oak. pick to -3
actual line....oak -3
no-play.
chic.[2-4] at minn.[1-5]....my line minn. pick to -2
actual line....minn.-1.5
no play.
atl.[3-3] at n.o.[6-1].....my line n.o. -5 to -8
actual line.....n.o.-4
n.o. would qualify as a vegas gift...how can a 6-1 team be favored at home by only 4 pts over a 3-3 team....again im just keepin this simple....forgetting all let-down or due to lose theories...plus atl. has looked better than a 3-3 team.
play on n.o.
cleve.[3-4] at nyj.[2-4].....my line....nyj. -p to -3
actual line nyj.-3
no play.
pitt[3-3] at balt.[3-3].....my line balt pick to -3.
actual line pitt.-2.5 circled
no play do to circle....injuries.
det.[2-4] at buff.[4-3]......my line....buff.-6 to -9
actual line...buff.-7.5
no play.
tbay[5-2] at car. [3-4].....my line....tbay-1 to -4
actual line tbay -7.5
carolina qualifies as a vegas gift....
play on carolina.
sea.[1-5] at dallas[3-4].....my line....dallas -4 to -7
actual line dallas-2.5
dallas qualifies as a vegas gift.
play on dallas.
tenn[2-4] at cinn[0-6].....my line tenn. pick to -3.
actual line. tenny-5.5
cinn. would qualify as a vegas gift.
play on cinn.
ariz.[4-2] at sfran[4-2]....my line....sfran. -2to -5
actual line sfran -8.5
ariz. would qualify as a vegas gift.
play on ariz.
den.[5-2] at ne. [3-3].....my line denver pick to -3
actual line ne.-3
denver would qualify as a vegas gift.
play on denver.
hou.[1-5] at jax.[3-3].....my line....jax. -5 to -8
actual line...jax.-11
hou. qualifies as vegas gift.
play on hou.
ind.[4-2] at wash.[2-5]......my line indy -2 to -5
actual line wash. pick
indy. qualifies as vegas gift.
play on indy.
list of all vegas gift plays.....
new orleans-4
car.+7.5
cinn.+5.5
dallas-2.5
ariz-8.5
den.+3
hou.+11
indy. pick.
so lets see how these gifts turn out....again these are plays based on just lookin at current records of each team and factoring in home field advantage to line....all trends,power rankings, let-down theories, due to win/lose etc. are thrown out the window.
if anyone has seen any i missed or dont agree with feel free to let me know.
gluck, burgh..
