Trend sheet 4/30

[cisco]

Hot Pitchers
-- Boggs beat Cubs 8-2 in his first '09 start (one run/5.2 IP).
-- Volstad is 2-0, 3.47 in four starts this season.
-- Geer allowed two runs in seven IP in his only '09 start vs Phillies; he gave up five runs in four IP in long relief vs Pirates Saturday.

-- Braden is 2-1, 1.89 in his last three starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Washington is 0-4 in Cabrera starts (0-2, 7.86).
-- Scherzer is 0-2, 4.91 in three starts this season. Marshall is 0-2, 4.91 in his two starts. Suppan is 1-2, 7.78 in his four starts.
-- McDonald has a 7.71 RA in three starts this year.

-- Padilla is 1-1, 8.27 in his four starts this season.
-- Davies is 1-1, 6.88 in his last three starts. Burres lost his first start of 2009 in Chicago, 10-2 to White Sox (six runs in 4.1 IP).
-- Beckett is 1-1, 8.47 in his last three starts. Rays lost last three Garza starts (0-2, 6.38).
-- Burnett is 0-0, 8.74 in his last two starts. Ortega allowed five runs in five IP in his first start, a 9-8 loss.

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals won seven of their last nine games.
-- Brewers won seven of their last eight games.
-- Dodgers are 6-0 at home this season.


-- Rangers won four of their last five games.
-- Red Sox won twelve of their last thirteen games.
-- Armadillosports.com is America's favorite website.
-- Toronto is 9-5 in its last fourteen games.
-- Bronx won last two games, scoring 19 runs. Angels won three games in a row, allowing total of seven runs.

Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost five of their last seven games.
-- Marlins lost seven of their last nine games, but won last two. Cubs lost six of their last eight games.
-- Arizona is 7-10 in its last 17 games.
-- Padres lost seven of their last nine games.

-- Oakland lost its last five road games, put two starters on the DL with strained calf muscles Wednesday. They got hurt during a rainout?
-- Royals are 1-5 in game following their last six wins.
-- Rays lost eleven of their last fifteen games.

Totals
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Cardinals' last eight road games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in Florida's last seven games.
-- Six of last eight games at Miller Park went over the total.
-- Over is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Dodger games.


-- Eight of ten Texas home games went over the total.
-- Over is 10-3 in Toronto's road games.
-- 12 of last 15 Boston games went over the total.
-- Five of last seven Angel games went over the total.

 

[cisco]

Thursday's Tip Sheet
By Brad Young

Thursday?s are traditionally one of the slower days in baseball, and there are just eight games scheduled. Most teams are traveling to their next destination, but there are a couple of quality games that deserve our attention.

Florida, the first place team in the National League East, travels to Chicago to take on the NL Central?s second-place squad. In another NL matchup, the top two teams in the NL West (San Diego and Los Angeles) collide in the first of four matchups.

Boston and Tampa Bay renew acquaintances after opening the season against one another in an AL East affair. Meanwhile, Los Angeles begins a four-game series with New York at the new Yankee Stadium.

Here?s a closer look at all the action.

**Marlins (Volstad) at Cubs (Marshall)**

-Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Chicago as a $1.35 home ?chalk? over Florida. Wrigley Field totals are not released until game day due to the unpredictable wind patterns. This game is scheduled to start at 8:05 p.m. ET.

-Florida right-hander Chris Volstad (2-0, 2.70 ERA) is off back-to-back no decisions after Saturday?s effort against Philadelphia.

-The two-year veteran went seven innings, yielding three runs (two earned) on four hits (two home runs) with a walk and six strikeouts. The Marlins eventually dropped that affair as a $1.35 home favorite, 6-4. The combined 10 runs eclipsed the 9 ?-run closing total, helping the ?over? improve to 3-1 his four starts.

-Volstad received a pair of no decisions against the Cubs last season, going a combined 12 innings while surrendering four runs on 12 hits (one home run) with five walks and nine strikeouts. The Marlins prevailed as a $2.30 road underdog, 3-2, while losing as a $1.30 home ?dog, 9-2.

-Chicago?s Sean Marshall (0-1, 4.91 ERA) hopes to rebound from Saturday?s setback to St. Louis as a road ?pick,? 8-2. The Virginia Commonwealth product was reached for three runs on six hits with a walk and five strikeouts over six innings.

-The combined 10 runs slithered ?over? the 9 ?-run closing total, enabling the ?over? to cash in both of his outings.

-The southpaw fell to Florida last season as a road ?pick,? 2-1, tossing five innings while allowing both runs on four hits (one home run) with three walks and eight strikeouts. The combined three runs never seriously threatened the nine-run closing total.

**Padres (Geer) at Dodgers (McDonald)**

-LVSC installed Los Angeles as a $1.60 home favorite over San Diego, with the total listed at 8 ? ?over? (minus $1.20). This National League West affair is scheduled to start at 10:10 p.m. ET.

-San Diego hurler Joshua Geer (0-0, 1.29 ERA) toes the rubber for the first time since an April 19 no-decision against Philadelphia. The 25-year-old right-hander went seven innings, yielding two runs (one earned) on six hits (one home run) with no walks and four strikeouts.

-The Padres eventually dropped that contest as a $1.32 road underdog, 5-4, while the combined nine runs went ?under? the 10-run closing total.

-Geer, a two-year veteran, has never started against the Dodgers in his career.

-Los Angeles right-hander James McDonald (1-1, 7.71 ERA) is coming off of his first victory of the year when he beat Colorado Saturday as a $1.25 road underdog, 6-5. The 6-foot-5 hurler lasted five innings, surrendering five runs on four hits (one home run) with four walks and two strikeouts.

-The combined 11 runs slithered ?over? the 10 ?-run closing total, helping the ?over? improve to 3-0 when he?s pitching.

-McDonald, a two-year veteran, has never started against the Padres.

**Red Sox (Beckett) at Rays (Garza)**

-LVSC lists Tampa Bay as a $1.15 home ?chalk? over Boston, with the total set at nine ?over? (minus $1.20). This American League East matchup is scheduled to begin at 7:05 p.m. ET.

-Boston?s Josh Beckett (2-1, 6.00 ERA) escaped with a no-decision in Saturday?s effort against New York. The 28-year-old was reached for eight runs on 10 hits (two home runs) with four walks and three strikeouts over five innings.

-The Red Sox rallied to win that contest as a $1.40 home favorite, 16-11, while the combined 27 runs soared ?over? the nine-run closing total. The ?over? has cashed in Beckett?s last two starts.

-The right-hander beat the Rays April 7 as a $1.53 home ?chalk,? 5-3, tossing seven innings while yielding one run on just two hits with three walks and 10 strikeouts. The combined eight runs went ?under? the 8 ?-run closing total.

-Tampa Bay counters with Matt Garza, hoping the right-hander can improve on his 1-2 record and 4.97 ERA. The Fresno State product is off Saturday?s setback to Oakland as a road ?pick,? 5-2, allowing four runs on four hits (one home run) with four walks and six strikeouts over 5 2/3 innings.

-The combined seven runs failed to eclipse the 8 ?-run closing total, ending back-to-back ?over? outings for the 25-year-old.

-Garza beat the Red Sox April 9 as a $1.35 road underdog, 4-3, going seven innings while allowing one run on four hits with three walks and five strikeouts. The combined seven runs went ?under? the 8 ?-run closing total.

**Angels (Ortega) at Yankees (Burnett)**

-LVSC opened New York as a decided $2.30 home favorite over Los Angeles, with the total set at 9 ? ?over? (minus $1.30). This game is slated to start at 7:05 p.m. ET.

-Los Angeles pitcher Anthony Ortega (0-1, 7.20 ERA) dropped Saturday?s effort against Seattle as a $1.27 home ?chalk,? 9-8. The Venezuela native lasted five innings, surrendering five runs (four earned) on five hits (two home runs) with a walk and five strikeouts.

-The combined 17 runs soared past the 9 ?-run closing total.

-Ortega, playing his first year in the majors, has never faced the Yankees.

-NewYork?s A.J. Burnett (2-0, 5.47 ERA) has recorded back-to-back no decisions, and was lucky to avoid a loss in Saturday?s effort versus Boston. The veteran right-hander was tagged for eight runs on eight hits (two home runs) with three walks and three strikeouts over five innings.

-The combined 27 runs toppled the nine-run closing total, helping the ?over? improve to 3-1 when Burnett?s pitching.

-The 32-year-old went 1-1 against the Angels last season in three starts as a member of the Toronto Blue Jays. The 6-foot-4 hurler went a combined 21 innings, allowing 13 runs (11 earned) on 21 hits (three home runs) with five walks and 17 strikeouts. The Blue Jays prevailed as a $1.30 home ?chalk,? 4-3, while losing as a $1.10 road favorite, 4-3, and as a $1.12 road ?dog, 8-2. The ?under? went 2-1 in those three games.

************

 

[cisco]

ST LOUIS (14 - 7) at WASHINGTON (4 - 15)
MITCHELL BOGGS (R) vs. DANIEL CABRERA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 100-83 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 100-83 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 67-51 (+16.8 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 63-114 (-31.3 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 43-82 (-26.3 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 25-62 (-28.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 63-117 (-34.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MITCHELL BOGGS vs. WASHINGTON since 1997
No recent starts.

DANIEL CABRERA vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
No recent starts.


FLORIDA (12 - 8) at CHICAGO CUBS (10 - 9)
CHRIS VOLSTAD (R) vs. SEAN MARSHALL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO CUBS are 23-10 (+11.7 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 25-14 (+13.3 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
FLORIDA is 95-83 (+24.0 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 43-38 (+17.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 96-85 (+23.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
FLORIDA is 46-45 (+13.2 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
VOLSTAD is 7-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
VOLSTAD is 7-1 (+9.9 Units) against the money line in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHICAGO CUBS are 910-934 (-165.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 380-349 (-75.4 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 967-1018 (-187.4 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 517-474 (-112.8 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

CHRIS VOLSTAD vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
VOLSTAD is 0-0 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.417.
His team's record is 1-1 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.1 units)

SEAN MARSHALL vs. FLORIDA since 1997
MARSHALL is 1-3 when starting against FLORIDA with an ERA of 4.57 and a WHIP of 1.385.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-3. (-2.2 units)


ARIZONA (8 - 12) at MILWAUKEE (10 - 10)
MAX SCHERZER (R) vs. JEFF SUPPAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 91-92 (-20.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 35-49 (-17.9 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 91-89 (-16.9 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 61-66 (-19.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SCHERZER is 1-9 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SCHERZER is 1-9 (-9.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SUPPAN is 37-16 (+18.8 Units) against the money line at home with a money line of -100 to -125 since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MAX SCHERZER vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
No recent starts.

JEFF SUPPAN vs. ARIZONA since 1997
SUPPAN is 3-3 when starting against ARIZONA with an ERA of 4.43 and a WHIP of 1.455.
His team's record is 4-4 (-2.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 4-4. (-0.4 units)


SAN DIEGO (11 - 9) at LA DODGERS (14 - 7)
JOSH GEER (R) vs. JAMES MCDONALD (R)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 74-107 (-32.2 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 4-18 (-12.6 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +125 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 74-107 (-32.2 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 52-78 (-23.9 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 25-50 (-22.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 2-2 (+0.2 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.0 Units)

JOSH GEER vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.

JAMES MCDONALD vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
No recent starts.


OAKLAND (7 - 11) at TEXAS (10 - 10)
DALLAS BRADEN (L) vs. SCOTT FELDMAN (R)
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 6-22 (-15.1 Units) against the money line in road games in day games over the last 2 seasons.
TEXAS is 154-162 (+14.8 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against OAKLAND this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

DALLAS BRADEN vs. TEXAS since 1997
BRADEN is 0-2 when starting against TEXAS with an ERA of 6.60 and a WHIP of 1.933.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

SCOTT FELDMAN vs. OAKLAND since 1997
FELDMAN is 1-2 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 4.70 and a WHIP of 1.217.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+1.8 units)


TORONTO (15 - 7) at KANSAS CITY (10 - 10)
BRIAN BURRES (L) vs. KYLE DAVIES (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BURRES is 0-10 (-10.1 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
KANSAS CITY is 40-29 (+23.3 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 38-22 (+16.5 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 76-57 (+14.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 54-96 (-30.2 Units) against the money line when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 28-55 (-27.4 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TORONTO is 1-1 (+0.1 Units) against KANSAS CITY this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.1 Units, Under=-0.3 Units)

BRIAN BURRES vs. KANSAS CITY since 1997
BURRES is 0-1 when starting against KANSAS CITY with an ERA of 4.09 and a WHIP of 1.727.
His team's record is 0-2 (-2.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (+0.0 units)

KYLE DAVIES vs. TORONTO since 1997
No recent starts.


BOSTON (13 - 7) at TAMPA BAY (8 - 13)
JOSH BECKETT (R) vs. MATT GARZA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 4-13 (-10.3 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 8-18 (-11.7 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 113-86 (+21.3 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 64-32 (+24.1 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 51-37 (+17.0 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 65-34 (+22.7 Units) against the money line in games played in a dome over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 69-39 (+21.9 Units) against the money line in games played on artificial turf over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 84-50 (+30.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 41-17 (+20.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 11-2 (+10.3 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 18-5 (+14.1 Units) against the money line in road games when playing with a day off over the last 3 seasons.
BOSTON is 48-20 (+23.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-1 (+1.7 Units) against BOSTON this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

JOSH BECKETT vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
BECKETT is 7-3 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.69 and a WHIP of 1.108.
His team's record is 7-6 (-2.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-8. (-3.4 units)

MATT GARZA vs. BOSTON since 1997
GARZA is 6-1 when starting against BOSTON with an ERA of 2.90 and a WHIP of 1.215.
His team's record is 8-1 (+8.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-5. (-2.3 units)


LA ANGELS (8 - 11) at NY YANKEES (10 - 10)
ANTHONY ORTEGA (R) vs. A.J. BURNETT (R)
Top Trends for this game.
LA ANGELS are 109-76 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 53-37 (+16.8 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 103-66 (+21.7 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 40-27 (+13.5 Units) against the money line in road games in night games over the last 2 seasons.
LA ANGELS are 150-104 (+25.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 207-140 (-63.1 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 10 to 10.5 since 1997.
NY YANKEES are 33-39 (-21.5 Units) against the money line in April games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ANTHONY ORTEGA vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
No recent starts.

A.J. BURNETT vs. LA ANGELS since 1997
BURNETT is 1-2 when starting against LA ANGELS with an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.250.
His team's record is 1-3 (-2.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-1. (+1.8 units)

 

[cisco]

OAKLAND vs. TEXAS
Oakland is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Texas is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Oakland
Texas is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing Oakland

TORONTO vs. KANSAS CITY
Toronto is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Kansas City
Toronto is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games
Kansas City is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Toronto
Kansas City is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Toronto

LA ANGELS vs. NY YANKEES
LA Angels are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
LA Angels are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Angels
NY Yankees are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Angels

ST. LOUIS vs. WASHINGTON
St. Louis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of St. Louis's last 16 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 5-19 SU in its last 24 games
Washington is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games at home

BOSTON vs. TAMPA BAY
Boston is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
Boston is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 11-3 SU in its last 14 games when playing at home against Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games when playing at home against Boston

ARIZONA vs. MILWAUKEE
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games when playing at home against Arizona

FLORIDA vs. CHI CUBS
Florida is 6-2 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Florida's last 24 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games at home

SAN DIEGO vs. LA DODGERS
San Diego is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games
LA Dodgers are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games when playing San Diego

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