Trend sheet 5.19

cisco

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Hot Pitchers
-- Martis is 5-0, 3.96 in his last six starts.
-- Cueto is 4-0, 1.33 in his last six starts. Hamels is 1-0, 2.08 in his last three starts.
-- Jurrjens is 2-2, 1.95 in his last six starts.
-- Garland is 1-0, 1.35 in his two road starts. Johnson is 1-0, 2.36 in his last five outings.
-- Brewers won last five Bush starts (2-0, 3.74).
-- Lilly is 3-0, 2.66 in his last three starts.
-- Zito has 2.20 RA in his last five starts.
-- Billingsley is 4-1, 2.40 in his last seven starts. Mets won Maine's last four starts (3-0, 2.55).

-- Wakefield is 2-0, 2.77 in two home starts this season. Tallet is 1-0, 2.70 in his last three starts.
-- Sabathia is 2-0, 1.06 in his last two starts, but is 0-2, 6.16 in his three home starts.
-- Outman is 1-0, 3.31 in his last three starts.
-- Lee has a 1.44 RA in his last six starts. Bannister is 3-1, 2.70 in five starts this season.
-- Buehrle is 5-1, 2.93 in his last six starts.
-- Palmer is 4-0, 3.71 in four starts this season.


Cold Pitchers
-- Pirates lost last four Karstens starts (0-2, 6.14).
-- Hammel is 0-2, 7.36 in his last four starts.
-- Hampton is 1-2, 7.39 in his last five starts.
-- Pineiro is 0-3, 6.63 in his last three starts.
-- Young is 0-2, 8.19 in his last four starts.

-- Willis gave up four runs in 4.2 IP in his first '09 start, at Minnesota. McCarthy has a 6.00 RA in his last six starts.
-- Bergesen is 0-1, 6.23 in his last four starts.
-- Shields is 0-2, 8.18 in his last couple starts.
-- Baker is 1-4, 6.95 in his six starts this season.
-- Mariners lost last three Hernandez starts (0-2, 6.35).

Hot Teams
-- Pirates won last three games, scoring 30 runs, but are 1-8 in their last nine road games.
-- Phillies won nine of their last eleven road games.
-- Brewers won six in row and nine of last eleven games. Astros won three of their last four games.
-- Cubs won five of their last six games.
-- San Diego won its last four home games.
-- Dodgers won four of their last five games. Mets won ten of their last thirteen contests.


-- Rangers won their last seven games, allowing total of 19 runs. Detroit won its last three games, scoring 34 runs.
-- Bronx Bombers won their last six games.
-- Toronto won Red Sox are 12-2 in last 14 games at Fenway.
-- Rays won five of their last six home games.


Cold Teams
-- Nationals lost eight of their last nine games.
-- Cincinnati lost its last three games, scoring eight runs.
-- Arizona lost five of its last seven road games. Florida lost eight of its last nine home games.
-- Braves lost eleven of their last fourteen home games. Colorado is 5-10 in its last fifteen road games.
-- Cardinals lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Giants lost four of their last five games.

-- Twins just lost four straight one-run games in the Bronx, but are 5-1 in their last six home games.
-- Orioles lost 11 of their last 14 road games.
-- A's lost eleven of their last thirteen road games.
-- Indians lost their last three games, allowing 24 runs. Royals are 2-7 in their last nine games.
-- Twins lost their last seven road games. White Sox lost last five games overall, scoring total of eight runs.
-- Mariners lost ten of their last thirteen games. Angels lost three of their last four games.


Totals
-- Over is 8-3 in Pirates' last eleven road games.
-- Last five Cincinnati home games went over the total.
-- Seven of last ten Colorado road games stayed under total.
-- Under is 10-1-2 in Arizona road games.
-- Six of last seven Milwaukee road games went over the total.
-- Over is 7-2-1 in Cubs' last ten road games.
-- Over is 4-1-2 in last seven San Diego games.
-- Nine of Mets' last twelve games went over the total.

-- Four of last five Detroit games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Boston home games.
-- Over is 11-5-1 in Baltimore road games.
-- Six of last seven Oakland road games went over the total.
-- Over is 12-1 in Cleveland's last thirteen road games.
-- Under is 8-1-1 in Minnesota's last nine road games.
-- Ten of last fourteen Angel games stayed under the total.
 

cisco

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BALTIMORE vs. NY YANKEES
Baltimore is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Baltimore's last 16 games on the road
NY Yankees are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games when playing Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Baltimore

PITTSBURGH vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Washington
Pittsburgh is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games

TEXAS vs. DETROIT
Texas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 10 games at home

OAKLAND vs. TAMPA BAY
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing Oakland
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oakland

ARIZONA vs. FLORIDA
Arizona is 1-4-1 SU in its last 6 games
Arizona is 2-5-1 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Florida is 5-1-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Arizona
Florida is 7-2-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Arizona

COLORADO vs. ATLANTA
Colorado is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado's last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Colorado

PHILADELPHIA vs. CINCINNATI
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home

TORONTO vs. BOSTON
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Toronto's last 20 games on the road
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Boston is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games at home
Boston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

MILWAUKEE vs. HOUSTON
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games

CLEVELAND vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Cleveland is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
Kansas City is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Cleveland

MINNESOTA vs. CHI WHITE SOX
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Minnesota's last 15 games when playing Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games at home

CHI CUBS vs. ST. LOUIS
Chi Cubs are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chi Cubs's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 7 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Chi Cubs

SAN FRANCISCO vs. SAN DIEGO
San Francisco is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games when playing San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Francisco's last 10 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 6-16 SU in its last 22 games
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

LA ANGELS vs. SEATTLE
LA Angels are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games when playing on the road against Seattle
LA Angels are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games
Seattle is 7-17 SU in their last 24 games when playing LA Angels
Seattle is 3-9 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against LA Angels

NY METS vs. LA DODGERS
NY Mets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
NY Mets are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games
LA Dodgers are 15-3 SU in their last 18 games at home
 

cisco

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NATIONAL LEAGUE

Chicago Cubs (21-15) at St. Louis (21-17)

Ted Lilly (5-2, 3.27 ERA) guns for his fourth consecutive victory when he leads the Cubs against the slumping Cardinals and Joel Pineiro (4-3, 4.17) in the opener a three-game series between N.L. Central rivals at Busch Stadium.

Chicago took Monday off after dropping a 6-5 home decision to Houston on Sunday, snapping the team?s five-game winning streak. Still, the Cubs have won 11 of their last 15, going 3-2 on the road during this stretch. They?ve also won five of their last six against right-handed starters.

St. Louis wrapped up a weather-delayed three-game home series against the Brewers on Monday with an 8-4 loss. The Cardinals were swept in the series and have now also lost five of their last six, seven of 10 and 10 of 14, going 2-5 at home along the way and 1-5 in their last six against divisional opponents. Additionally, Tony LaRussa?s squad is in ruts of 1-4 on Tuesday, 1-7 against winning teams and 1-4 in series openers.

This is the third series of the year between these hated rivals, with the squads splitting the first six games and the home team winning four of those six contests.

Lilly is 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA in his last three trips to the mound, and he?s been the beneficiary of great offensive support, with the Cubs scoring an average of 6.7 runs per game during this stretch. In his most recent effort Wednesday against the Padres, Lilly allowed three runs in 6 1/3 innings, winning 6-4 in a rain-shortened game. The veteran southpaw is 2-1 on the road despite a hefty 6.75 ERA.

Chicago is 25-10 the last 35 times Lilly has pitched, including 5-1 in his last six on the road, 6-1 in his last seven versus divisional foes, 10-3 in series openers and 13-3 against teams with a winning record. The Cubs are also 6-1 in Lilly?s last seven starts against the Cardinals and 4-1 in his five lifetime outings in St. Louis. For his career, the 33-year-old is 6-2 with a 2.99 ERA in 11 starts against the Redbirds (3-0 with a 2.38 ERA at Busch Stadium).

Pineiro is coming off a 5-2 loss at Pittsburgh as he gave up five runs on 11 hits in six innings. The right-hander is 0-3 with a 4.74 ERA in his last three outings after starting the season 4-0 with a 3.76 ERA in his first four starts.

Pineiro, whose last four appearances have come on the road, has pitched just twice in Busch Stadium this season, going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA, and he?s 8-2 with a 3.61 ERA in his career at Busch. Additionally, he?s 2-3 with a 5.28 ERA in five career starts against Chicago.

The over is 4-1-1 this year when these teams meet, but the under is still 5-1-1 in the last seven battles at Busch Stadium. For Chicago, the over is on streaks of 6-2-1 on the road, 11-4 on Tuesday and 4-0 when Lilly works on the highway. Conversely, the Cardinals carry ?under? trends of 4-2 overall (all against the N.L. Central and 4-1 in series openers.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO CUBS


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Toronto (27-14) at Boston (22-16)

The smoldering Blue Jays take a four-game winning streak to Fenway Park, where they begin a nine-game road trip with lefty Brian Tallet (2-1, 4.68) matched up against veteran Red Sox knuckleballer Tim Wakefield (4-2, 4.03) in the first meeting of the season between these A.L. East foes.

Toronto capped off a four-game series sweep of the White Sox on Monday afternoon with a 3-2 victory. The Blue Jays have given up three runs or fewer in seven of their last eight games, including the last five in a row. In addition to its four-game winning streak, Cito Gaston?s crew is on solid surges of 12-5 overall, 5-2 against the A.L. East, 4-0 against right-handed starters and 11-4 on Tuesday. However, they are just 5-6 in their last 11 road games and 1-4 in their last five as an underdog.

Boston returns home after a disappointing 2-4 road trip that ended with Sunday?s 3-2, walk-off loss at Seattle. The Red Sox offense has been pedestrian of late, producing four runs or fewer in six of the last seven games, and they?ve gone eight straight contests without tallying more than five runs. Still, Boston carries positive trends of 77-33 at home, 16-7 as a favorite, 7-2 against southpaw starters, 20-7 in series openers, 47-18 after a day off, 4-1 in divisional contests and 22-10 on Tuesday.

These teams split their 18-game season series last year, but Boston won four of the final five and six of the last eight clashes.

Since surrendering 10 runs (all earned) in just four innings an 11-3 loss at Kansas City on April 29, Tallet has been outstanding in his last three starts, yielding a combined six runs and 10 hits in 19 innings (2.70 ERA). However, he has just one win to show for it as the Blue Jays are 1-3 in his last four starts. Tallet has pitched into the sixth inning in five of his six starts this season, giving up a total of just seven earned runs in those five outings covering 31 innings (2.03 ERA).

Tallet has made five road appearances (three starts), going 2-1 with a 6.55 ERA. Also, he?s faced the Red Sox 16 times ? but only one start ? going 1-1 with a 4.22 ERA in 21 1/3 innings. The one start came way back in September 2002 when Tallet was with the Indians.

Wakefield is coming off his worst effort of the season, as he got tagged for seven runs on 11 hits in 4 2/3 innings in Anaheim on Wednesday, losing 8-4 to the Angels. That snapped Boston?s five-game winning streak with Wakefield on the mound. Still, the Red Sox are 36-16 in his last 52 home starts and 23-11 in his last 34 on Tuesday, but they?ve lost 11 of his last 15 against A.L. East rivals.

Wakefield is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his first two starts at Fenway Park in 2009, beating the Twins 10-1 and the Indians 13-3. He?s got a long history against Toronto, too, going 16-11 with a 3.76 ERA in 48 appearances (38 starts), including 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA in three starts last season.

The over is 4-1 in Tallet?s last five starts, while Boston is on ?over? streaks with Wakefield pitching of 8-1-1 overall, 4-0 at home, 6-1 against the A.L. East and 19-7-1 when favored. However, the under is 13-3-2 in Wakefield?s last 18 starts against Toronto and 5-1-1 in his last seven against Toronto at Fenway Park.

Toronto is on ?over? stretches of 10-4 as an underdog, 14-6 on the road and 4-1 against the A.L. East. Boston is 5-1-1 ?under? in its last seven overall, but otherwise the Sox are riding ?over? streaks of 7-3-1 at home, 17-7-2 as a chalk, 11-4 versus southpaw starters and 10-3-1 on Tuesday.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
 

cisco

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Tuesday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
By ******

Streaking

Josh Johnson, Florida Marlins

The Diamondbacks will likely be in for a challenge against Florida's Josh Johnson (3-0, 2.50 ERA), who is coming off his shortest outing of 2009.

Johnson allowed three runs - two earned - and three hits while walking five in four innings of a 5-3 loss at Milwaukee on Thursday.

The right-hander said his shoulder area felt tired prompting manager Fredi Gonzalez to remove him as a precaution. Last season, Johnson went 7-1 with a 3.61 ERA in 14 starts after missing the first three months while recovering from elbow surgery.

"Maybe it was just one of those days," said Johnson, who is 5-0 with a 2.98 ERA in his last 10 home starts since losing there on June 29, 2007. "I just have to go back out there and do what I've been doing."

Johnson makes his second career start against Arizona after giving up two hits in seven scoreless innings of a 4-1 win on Aug. 11, 2006.

The under has also cashed in three of the right-hander's last four outings.

Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox

Mark Buehrle (5-1, 3.00 ERA) will take the mound for the White Sox after he allowed a season-high four runs and seven hits over seven innings of a 4-0 loss to Cleveland last Wednesday.

The left-hander is 22-13 with a 3.79 ERA against the Twins, including 12-6 at home. He faced Minnesota on April 12, allowing one run and two hits over 6 1-3 innings of a 6-1 victory.

While the White Sox are off to a disappointing start to the 2009 season, their luck has been much better with Buehrle on the bump. Chicago is 6-1 with the ball in the southpaw's hand with the under cashing in five of those seven games.

Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds

An old-fashioned pitchers' duel could result today with the Phillies Cole Hamels squaring off against Cueto (4-1, 1.93). The 23-year-old right-hander has delivered five quality starts in a row, going 4-0 with a 1.25 ERA.

His least effective outing in that stretch came Wednesday, when he allowed three runs and four hits over seven innings in Arizona. He still got credit for a 10-3 win, though, and other than allowing two homers manager Dusty Baker described Cueto as "masterful."

"I'm very happy," Cueto told the Reds' official Web site through an interpreter. "The same time I'm pitching well, the team is coming out and scoring runs and making some plays on defense."

Cueto has never faced the Phillies, and his first experience against Philadelphia may not be coming at the best time. The Phillies won all four games in Washington over the weekend, totaling 33 runs.

Slumping

Jon Garland, Arizona Diamondbacks

Garland (3-2, 5.18) matched his shortest outing of the season after allowing seven runs and 10 hits in 3 2-3 innings of a 13-5 loss to Cincinnati on May 11. He also gave up seven runs in 3 2-3 innings of a 12-7 loss to St. Louis on April 15.

"Everything was at the belt," Garland told the Diamondbacks' official Web site. "If you continue to throw pitches there, you're going to get hurt."

The right-hander is 0-1 with a 3.29 ERA in two starts against the Marlins. Opponents are hitting .353 off the former 18-game winner and he's issued just as many walks (16) as strikeouts in 41 2-3 innings pitched this season.
 

JSwinz213

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Cisco,
I appreciate you posting these trends as I usually glance over them to get some insight. Great work, what source do you use if you do not mind me asking?

Thanks bro!
 
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