Trend sheet 6/14

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National League

HOUSTON at ARIZONA
MOEHLER: HOU 11-4 vs. NL West
BUCKNER: ARI 5-13 at home with a money line of -100 to -150

Interleague

(TC) ST LOUIS at CLEVELAND
CARPENTER: STL 18-9 Over when the total is 7 to 8.5
LEE: 1-8 TSR vs. teams with winning record

FLORIDA at TORONTO
JOHNSON: 9-0 TSR off team win
TALLET: TOR 10-2 Over after a loss by 2 runs or less

ATLANTA at BALTIMORE
LOWE: ATL 18-8 Under off an Over
BERGESEN: BAL 5-29 on Sundays

WASHINGTON at TAMPA BAY
DETWILER: WASH 5-23 off an Over
SHIELDS: TB 50-10 as a favorite of -150 or more

DETROIT at PITTSBURGH
WILLIS: DET 16-6 in day games
OHLENDORF: PIT 20-9 Over after a win by 4+ runs

BOSTON at PHILADELPHIA
BECKETT: 13-1 TSR as a road favorite of -125 to -150
HAPP: PHI 4-13 at home vs. righties

CHI WHITE SOX at MILWAUKEE
BUEHRLE: 17-2 Under when the money line is +125 to -125
LOOPER: MIL 19-7 Under off loss

CINCINNATI at KANSAS CITY
CUETO: 28-14 Under in all starts
BANNISTER: 12-5 TSR in day games

MINNESOTA at CHICAGO CUBS
BAKER: MIN 13-30 Away vs. lefties
LILLY: 3-0 TSR, 0.87 ERA L3 starts

LA DODGERS at TEXAS
BILLINGSLEY: Dodgers 27-11 as favorite
HOLLAND: TEX 11-1 Under after scoring 2 runs or less

SEATTLE at COLORADO
VARGAS: SEA 12-3 Under with double revenge
HAMMEL: COL 28-42 in day games

SAN DIEGO at LA ANGELS
YOUNG: SD 3-17 vs. American League
WEAVER: LAA 8-0 Over after scoring 9+ runs

OAKLAND at SAN FRANCISCO
ANDERSON: OAK 9-26 Away in day games
CAIN: SF 20-9 in home games

(TC) NY METS at NY YANKEES
SANTANA: 84-29 TSR off team win
BURNETT: 5-11 TSR vs. Mets

 

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St. Louis Cardinals at Cleveland Indians (-106, 7.5)

The theme for Interleague play this weekend was same division duels.

With that, the St. Louis Cardinals take on the Cleveland Indians in the finale of this three-game Central Division showdown when Chris Carpenter (4-0 1.23 ERA) matches serves with Cliff Lee (3-6 3.17 ERA) in a battle of staff aces at Progressive Field under the ESPN lights.

Mashed potatoes

Perhaps no team in the majors has been hit as hard with injuries as the Indians, who have seven players on the DL including All-Star CF Grady Sizemore.

Former All-Star P Jake Westbrook stepped on the mound for the first time this week following offseason Tommy John surgery. If all goes well he could rejoin the rotation before the season ends.

Because of injuries and poor performance, RHP Tomo Ohka?s start on Saturday marked the 10th different starter the Tribe has used this season.

Infielder Asdrubal Cabrera is out, creating a gaffe on the left side of the infield. Luis Valbuena was recalled from Columbus, moving regular SS Jhonny Peralta to the hot corner for the second time this season.

"I was impressed with Valbuena at shortstop in spring training," manager Eric Wedge told reporters, "and he's done a good job here in the short-term."

"The more Jhonny plays third, the better he's going to be. He has a chance to be a pretty good third baseman, once he gets comfortable,? he said.

Free fallin?

Both teams are falling faster than the economy.

The Tribe?s plunge has been all long as the injuries have sent them to the cellar of the American League Central.

St. Louis was swept in four games against Colorado at home before edging Florida, two games to one, prior to this series.

Through it all, both teams remain within striking distance of division leaders Detroit and Milwaukee, respectively.

?The way the rest of the division?s played, I keep feeling like if we can just hang in there and not completely succumb to the magnitude of our injuries, getting those guys back alone may be enough to make a surge in our division,? Cleveland GM Mark Shapiro told the media.

Meanwhile, an injury to 3B Troy Glaus and an anxiety disorder to SS Khalil Greene has crippled the Redbirds? attack. First baseman Albert Pujols is the only player in the Cards? lineup the team has been able to depend on.

Cy?s of relief

Thank goodness for the Cardinals and Indians. Carpenter and Lee are former Cy Young award winners and appear to be back on track following rocky starts.

Carpenter?s numbers across the board this season are far superior to his career marks. His 0.70 WHIP, .163 opponent batting average and 1.23 ERA are more Cy Young-like than his career 1.31 WHIP, .264 opponent batting average and 4.00 ERA.

While Lee?s slow start (0-4 first four games) has hampered his numbers this campaign, his 3.17 ERA in nearly a full run better than his 4.07 career ERA. More important, his walk-to-strikeout (10-49) ratio is rounding back to where it was in his dominating Cy Young season in 2008.

Lee defeated the Redbirds, 10-3, in his only start against the Cardinals in St. Louis back in 2006. Carpenter is 3-2 with a 4.41 ERA in his five career team starts versus the Tribe, including 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA on the north coast.

Historically speaking

Entering this weekend, the Indians stood 6-3 against the Cardinals in Interleague play, but only 1-2 at home.

St. Louis is 1-7 its last eight games away on Sundays. Cleveland is 4-1 in its last five at home on Sundays.

 

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Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Josh Johnson (Florida Marlins)

He'll be opposed by Florida's Josh Johnson (5-1, 2.73), who's looking for his third win in four starts and is among the NL leaders in ERA.

The right-hander outpitched Roy Halladay with 5 2-3 innings of one-run ball to win his only start against Toronto 4-1 on June 18, 2006. He'll face a struggling Blue Jays lineup, as manager Cito Gaston has been forced to make changes with his team's batting average dipping from .292 to .278 over the last 24 games.

Josh Beckett (Boston Red Sox)

Beckett (7-2, 3.77 ERA) hasn't allowed an earned run in his last two starts.

Beckett allowed only an infield hit while striking out eight in six innings of a 7-0 win over the New York Yankees on Tuesday. He's given up five runs - one earned - and struck out 30 while going 3-0 over his last four starts.

"He's been rolling," third baseman Mike Lowell told the Red Sox's official Web site. "He's answered the bell - what you come to expect out of an ace. That, and some."

The right-hander is 5-0 with a 1.70 ERA in his last seven starts after going 2-2 with a 7.22 ERA in his first five.

"It's a work in progress," Beckett said. "We're taking care of stuff we need to take care of."

Beckett has taken care of the Phillies in his career, going 8-3 with a 3.79 ERA in 16 starts. He's won his last three versus Philadelphia but faces the club for the first time since 2006.


Slumping

Billy Buckner (Arizona Diamondbacks)

Billy Buckner (2-2, 6.75) will take the mound for Arizona hoping to bounce back from his worst start of the season.

After going 2-1 with a 2.95 ERA in his first three games since being moved into the rotation, the right-hander was tagged for career highs of eight runs and 13 hits in a 9-4 loss to San Francisco on Tuesday.

Buckner, who has a 12.27 ERA in five games - two starts - at home this year, has never faced the Astros.

Dontrelle Willis (Detroit Tigers)

The Tigers will turn to Dontrelle Willis (1-3, 6.60), who is looking to get his first victory since yielding one hit in 6 1-3 innings of a 4-0 win over Texas on May 19.

The left-hander, on the disabled list with an anxiety disorder until last month, hasn't come close to that since, going 0-3 with an 8.53 ERA and 16 walks in 19 innings over four starts.

Willis, though, showed some improvement while laboring through five innings Tuesday, allowing three runs and five hits with five walks on 105 pitches in a 7-6, 10-inning win over the Chicago White Sox.

"I've got to take my hat off to him," Tigers manager Jim Leyland told the team's official Web site. "This guy competes so hard. It's kind of a tough situation to manage right now. He wouldn't come out. I couldn't tell you how happy I was with the way he competed. I think the guys love him. I think they appreciate the way he goes about his business."

Willis is 2-4 with a 2.96 ERA in eight starts against the Pirates, whom he hasn't faced since 2007 while pitching for the Florida Marlins.

 

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Trend Report
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1:05 PM
NY METS vs. NY YANKEES
NY Mets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Yankees
NY Mets are 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
NY Yankees are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
NY Yankees are 13-5 SU in their last 18 games at home

1:07 PM
FLORIDA vs. TORONTO
Florida is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Florida is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Toronto is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Florida
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Florida

1:35 PM
ATLANTA vs. BALTIMORE
Atlanta is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Atlanta is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Baltimore is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta

1:35 PM
BOSTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
Boston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Philadelphia
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Boston
Philadelphia is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games

1:35 PM
DETROIT vs. PITTSBURGH
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:38 PM
WASHINGTON vs. TAMPA BAY
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Washington is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

2:05 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. MILWAUKEE
Chi White Sox are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Chi White Sox are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games
Milwaukee is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing Chi White Sox
Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

2:10 PM
CINCINNATI vs. KANSAS CITY
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Kansas City is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games at home
Kansas City is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games

2:20 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHI CUBS
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games on the road
Chi Cubs are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games
Chi Cubs are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home

3:05 PM
LA DODGERS vs. TEXAS
LA Dodgers are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games on the road
LA Dodgers are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing Texas
Texas is 14-6 SU in its last 20 games at home
Texas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

3:10 PM
SEATTLE vs. COLORADO
Seattle is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games on the road
Seattle is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Colorado
Colorado is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Seattle
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

3:35 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. LA ANGELS
San Diego is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
San Diego is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games on the road
LA Angels are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games at home
LA Angels are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing San Diego

4:05 PM
OAKLAND vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Oakland is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Oakland
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Oakland

4:10 PM
HOUSTON vs. ARIZONA
Houston is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
Houston is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Houston
Arizona is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games when playing Houston

8:05 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CLEVELAND
St. Louis is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
St. Louis is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Cleveland is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing St. Louis

 

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Sunday's MLB Preview
By Josh Jacobs

And so Interleague play marches on into Sunday?s lineup. Diving right into the 15-game fray is a highly touted pitchers duel between the Mets? Johan Santana and Yankees starter, A.J. Burnett.

Mets at Yankees ? 1:05 p.m. EDT

Every time the Mets? Johan Santana (8-3, 2.39 ERA) takes his turn in the rotation either bettors cringe at the inflated money line figure or backers hope to collect on the club?s inadequacies. In eight wins this season, profits have stayed above the $100 dollar mark (on a $100 bet), currently staying put at +181. But there has been some reason for concern. Santana was tagged for five earned runs in his last appearance as a $1.48 favorite against division rival, Philadelphia. Despite the win, Santana has now surrendered an average of 3.7 runs per game in the last three compared to the unstoppable, 1.1 runs per game allowed in the first nine starts.

As for the Yankees? A.J. Burnett (4-3, 4.89), a 2.2 inning, 84 pitch outing against the Red Sox on Tuesday was embarrassing from a performance standpoint and frustrating for those backing New York. In his last six outings, Burnett is 2-3 in the record books. And the results haven?t been spectacular in Yankee Stadium where the 10-year vet is just 1-1 in his last six home starts. We?re talking about a starting pitcher who?s been listed as a favorite of minus-160 or more six times in the last 10 and who?s been posted in the minus-200 range three times this season. But at the end of the day, backers should consider themselves lucky that the money line figure is still in the black at plus-88 before heading into Sunday?s contest.

Take into account that the Yankees have been demoralized against southpaw pitching recently. In just the last 10 games, the Pinstripes are batting .183, scoring 4.4 runs per nine innings. This pales in comparison to the same team that ranks fourth best in the league, scoring 99 runs and batting .296 versus lefties on the season. But overall, the Yanks are swinging under the radar these days, totaling a .222 BA from both sides of the plate.

And so the ?under? is 4-1-1 in the Yankees last six. The Mets compliment this angle by going 4-2 on the ?under? in their last six road games.

Boston at Philadelphia ? 1:35 p.m. EDT

Opening books as a $1.35 visiting favorite, Boston is now in the AL East drivers? seat. Why? After sweeping the Yanks in Fenway for the seventh straight ?W? against their rival in series play, taking nine of the last 11 and receiving magnificent pitching in the last 10 games (2.49 ERA), the Red Sox are riding a wave of momentum.

Boston?s Josh Beckett (7-2, 3.77) has thrown two shutouts in his last two starts and three in the last four outings. And if that?s not impressive enough then how about allowing one hit in the 7-0 shutout win against the Yankees on Tuesday and two hits surrendered in the 10-5 whooping against Detroit last week? All in all, Becket has given up 15 hits in the last five games (three hits per game!). And the best part of all; books have set his price to over minus-150 just twice in the last nine starts. There is some value to be had.

Now Philly is no slouch. But when paired up against the Red Sox, the results have been less then flattering. The Phillies are 3-14 in their last 17 head-to-head games and 1-6 in the last seven games alone.

Keeping up with current times has Philadelphia batting .236 in the last 10. A 6-4 ?under? record has been the result of the offensive problems coupled with a pitching staff actually bucking the seasonal trend. To be more clear, the Phillies? starting staff owns a 5.69 ERA. But in just the last 10 days, that same staff (including the pen) has improved drastically, tossing a 2.75 ERA.

Reliever turned starter, J.A. Happ (4-0, 2.98) will look to continue the team?s success off the mound. Happ did fumble somewhat in his last start against the Mets (giving up six hits and four runs in 5.1 innings) but the no decision kept the slingers? record at a perfect 4-0.

Boston enters Sunday?s throw down garnering an impressive 22-6-2 ?under? record in its last 30 games, an 8-2 performance in the last 10 road games and again, hitting the ?under? eight times in its last 11 interleague contests. For the Phillies, the ?under? has been red hot at 14-3-1 in the last 18 interleague games, 9-3 in their last 12 as an underdog and 14-5-1 in their last 20. All roads are pointing to another ?under? play despite books lowering that figure to nine runs.

Extra Innings

ESPN Sunday Night Baseball will get underway at 8:05 p.m. EDT. Cleveland and St. Louis are the two teams scheduled to take the field with most books listing the Indians as $1.06 home favorites.

Cliff Lee (3-6, 3.17) will represent the left-handed arm for the Tribe. Allowing 1.9 runs per game in his last 10 starts should have paved the way for a much better record then 2-4 but at the same token the offense has only supplied support of 3.7 runs per game.

The ?under? is 7-3 in Lee?s last 10 starts despite hitting the ?over? in the last two games. In the last six home starts, Lee is 5-1 on the ?under?. When coming off a no decision in the last eight games (overlapping into games played in the 2008 season), Lee is 5-3 on the ?under?.

The Indians as a team are 8-2-1 on the ?under? in their last 11 interleague games and 9-4 in the record books in their last 13 home games.

The Cardinals are looking to Chris Carpenter (4-0, 1.23) for the win. Coming back to baseball after tearing his oblique in April, Carpenter hasn?t missed a beat. On June 4 against Cincinnati, the right-hander recorded his 26th career complete game. On the season, Carpenter hasn?t surrendered more then three runs in any one outing. This is a guy who?s already thrown four games without giving up a run and is in control of a devastating 0.70 WHIP on the season. The ?under? is 4-2-1 in his last seven thanks to the holding off the bats in opposing lineups.

The problem with backing St. Louis is its 2-6 performance in the last eight. During the six defeats, the Cards have been responsible for scoring 2.5 runs per game. Despite this an abnormality is occurring. For batters who have logged in over 20 plate appearances, St. Louis? batting order has come together for a .301 BA. This includes Colby Rasmus? BA of .469 and Rick Ankiel socking the ball for a .326 BA. The drastic reduction comes from the team swinging at flies, going for a .219 BA in the last seven defeats.

The Cards are 2-7 in their last nine head-to-head games.

 

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INTERLEAGUE

Boston (38-24) at Philadelphia (35-25)

The Phillies will pit left-hander J.A. Happ (4-0, 2.98 ERA) against Red Sox ace Josh Beckett (7-2, 3.77) as these clubs wrap up a three-game set at Citizens Bank Park matching the last two World Series champions.

Boston will be gunning for a sweep after taking the first two games by scores of 5-2 on Friday and 11-6 on Saturday. The Red Sox have now won 15 of 18 overall in this rivalry, including the last four in a row, and they?re 10-2 in their last 12 games in Philly. In addition, the Sox are on runs of 10-2 overall, 6-0 on the road, 55-18 in interleague play, 26-9 in interleague roadies and 46-22 against lefty starters.

Philadelphia has returned home from a 10-game road trip and lost two straight. Still, the defending champs remain on upswings of 10-5 overall, 40-19 against winning teams, 6-2 against right-handed pitching and 14-5 as a home underdog.

Happ, who began the year in the bullpen, will make just his second home start of the year, previously getting the win in a 5-4 victory over Washington on May 29. Last Tuesday, he gave up four runs on six hits (two homers) and four walks in a 6-5 road loss to the Mets. The southpaw is 2-0 with a 4.32 ERA in eight home appearances this year, and Philadelphia is 6-2 in his last eight outings overall and 4-0 in his last four at home. Happ will be making his first career start against the BoSox.

Boston is 6-1 in Beckett?s last seven trips to the bump, with the veteran going 5-0 in that stretch while allowing just nine earned runs in 47 2/3 innings, for a sterling 1.69 ERA. In his most recent start Tuesday, Beckett blanked the Yankees 7-0 at Fenway Park, pitching six innings of one-hit ball with eight strikeouts and two walks.

Beckett is 4-2 with a 3.99 ERA in six road starts this season, and he?s 8-3 with a 3.67 ERA in 18 career appearances (16 starts) against Philly. With the veteran right-hander on the hill, the Sox are on runs of 4-0 on the road and 10-4 in interleague play.

The under for Philadelphia is on rolls of 14-6-1 overall, 5-1 against the A.L. East, 6-2 at home, 14-4-1 in interleague play, 7-1 in Happ?s last eight starts and 4-0 behind Happ at Citizens Bank Park. Similarly, Boston is on a plethora of ?under? runs, including 22-7-2 overall, 8-3 on the road, 8-3-1 in interleague play, 5-1 in Beckett?s last six outings and 6-2-1 behind Beckett in interleague contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON and UNDER


N.Y. Mets (32-28) at N.Y. Yankees (35-27)

The Mets finish off their Big Apple road series by sending ace left-hander Johan Santana (8-3, 2.39 ERA) to the mound against the Yankees, who will counter with right-hander A.J. Burnett (4-3, 4.89).

One day after a stunning 9-8 loss in the Bronx when second baseman Luis Castillo dropped a routine pop-up with two outs in the ninth, leading to the game-winning runs, the Mets bounced back with a 6-2 victory Saturday. The Mets are now 8-3 in their last 11 interleague contests, but Jerry Manuel?s club remains in slumps of 4-7 overall and 3-6 on the road.

The Yankees remain on runs of 20-10 overall, 13-5 at home, 56-23 hosting National League squads and 8-2 against left-handers, but they are on skids of 2-5 in interleague play and 2-8 against winning teams in interleague action.

The Mets have now taken five of eight Subway Series clashes since last season, going 4-1 in Yankee Stadium. In fact, the visitor is on a 6-2 roll in this rivalry.

Santana is 4-1 in his last five starts, despite allowing a total of 17 runs in 33 innings (4.63 ERA), and he?s gone at least six innings in all five of those outings. The southpaw is 3-2 with a 2.76 ERA in five road starts this year, and the Mets are 21-7 in his last 28 starts overall and 8-2 in his last 10 road outings. Santana is 4-1 with a 3.15 ERA in 10 career outings (seven starts) against the Bronx Bombers.

Burnett was on the short end of a 7-0 whipping at Boston on Tuesday, allowing five runs (three earned) in just 2 2/3 innings, with five walks against just one strikeout. The right-hander is 2-6 in 16 career starts against the Mets, despite a serviceable 3.83 ERA, and he?s 1-1 with a 4.62 ERA in six home starts this season. The Yanks are 5-1 in Burnett?s last six starts when he?s going on four days? rest.

Saturday?s contest stayed under the total, ending a stretch in which six straight Subway Series meetings at Yankee Stadium had topped the posted price. The over is also 20-8-2 in the Mets? last 30 interleague road games. Conversely, the under for the Mets is on stretches of 10-4-1 on the road overall, 9-4 in Santana?s last 13 starts overall and 4-1 behind Santana on the highway.

Likewise, the under for the Yankees is on tears of 5-1-1 overall, 7-0 on Sunday, 8-1 in interleague action, 8-2 in home interleague contests and 5-1-1 behind Burnett.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. METS