Trend sheet 7/11

[cisco]

Trend Report
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4:10 PM
NY YANKEES vs. LA ANGELS
NY Yankees are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games when playing LA Angels
NY Yankees are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Angels
LA Angels are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games when playing NY Yankees
LA Angels are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games at home

4:10 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CHI CUBS
St. Louis is 1-4-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
St. Louis is 5-1-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs are 2-3-1 SU in their last 6 games
Chi Cubs are 8-3-1 SU in their last 12 games at home

6:08 PM
OAKLAND vs. TAMPA BAY
Oakland is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Oakland is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
Tampa Bay is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Oakland
Tampa Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. HOUSTON
Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:05 PM
CLEVELAND vs. DETROIT
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Detroit is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home

7:05 PM
LA DODGERS vs. MILWAUKEE
LA Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games
LA Dodgers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games on the road
Milwaukee is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against LA Dodgers
Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers

7:05 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. PHILADELPHIA
Pittsburgh is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Pittsburgh is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

7:05 PM
TORONTO vs. BALTIMORE
Toronto is 15-6 SU in its last 21 games when playing Baltimore
Toronto is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 6-15 SU in its last 21 games when playing Toronto
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:10 PM
CHI WHITE SOX vs. MINNESOTA
Chi White Sox are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games on the road
Chi White Sox are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota is 2-4 SU in their last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox

7:10 PM
CINCINNATI vs. NY METS
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 5-10 SU in its last 15 games on the road
NY Mets are 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
NY Mets are 1-6 SU in its last 7 games

7:10 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. BOSTON
Kansas City is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing Boston
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Kansas City
Boston is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

8:10 PM
ATLANTA vs. COLORADO
Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Colorado
Atlanta is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
Colorado is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Atlanta
Colorado is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

8:10 PM
FLORIDA vs. ARIZONA
Florida is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
Florida is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

9:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

10:10 PM
TEXAS vs. SEATTLE
Texas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
Texas is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games at home
Seattle is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

 

[cisco]

Saturday, July 11

Hot Pitchers
-- Cubs won Lilly's last six home starts.
-- Hamels is 1-0, 2.14 in his last three home starts.
-- Hampton is 3-1, 1.97 in his last five starts, three of which came vs the Pirates.
-- Weaver is 2-0, 3.15 in four starts for the Dodgers.
-- Marquis is 2-0, 0.00 in his last two starts (17 IP).
-- Cain is 8-1, 2.37 in his last dizen starts.

-- Weaver is 6-1, 2.32 in nine home starts this season.
-- Braden is 2-2, 2.75 in his last six starts. Rays won six of last seven Garza home starts.
-- Pavano is 1-1, 2.63 in his last couple starts. Galarraga is 2-0, 2.79 in his last three outings.
-- Romero is 4-0, 1.59 in his last four starts. Bergesen is 3-1, 2.47 in his last six starts.
-- Floyd is 2-1, 2.65 in his last five starts, but White Sox lost six of his last seven road outings. Perkins is 2-0, 1.29 in his last two starts.
-- Washburn is 2-1, 2.45 in his last three starts.

Cold Pitchers
-- Cardinals were outscored 26-2 in Thompson's last three starts (0-3, 7.88).
-- Stammen is 0-2, 5.60 in his last three starts.
-- Cueto is 2-2, 9.26 in his last five starts; he allowed nine runs in less than an inning in his last outing. Santana is 1-4, 6.23 in last five starts.
-- Ohlendorf is 1-5, 7.27 in his last seven road starts.
-- Burns is 1-2, 6.88 in three starts for Milwaukee.
-- Jurrjens is 1-5, 4.46 in his last seven starts.
-- Garland is 0-6, 5.37 in his last nine starts. West is 2-2, 6.58 in his last five outings.
-- Stauffer is 4-7, 6.37 in 17 major league starts; he was

-- Pettitte is 1-1, 7.56 in his last three starts.
-- Smoltz is 0-2, 6.60 in three starts this season. Meche is 0-3, 8.10 in his last four starts.
-- Millwood is 1-2, 6.66 in his last four starts.

Hot Teams
-- Cardinals won seven of their last nine games.
-- Phillies won seven of their last eight games.
-- Dodgers are 16-8 in their last 24 road games.
-- Astros are 18-9 in their last 27 home games.
-- Rockies won 15 of their last 20 home games. Braves won three of their last four games.
-- Giants are 18-6 in their last 24 home games.

-- Tigers won nine of their last ten home games.
-- Red Sox won their last three games, allowing six runs.
-- Rays won 20 of their last 23 home games.
-- Bronx Bombers won 13 of their last 16 games.
-- White Sox won eight of their last ten road games.
-- Rangers won eight of their last ten games.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost their last three games, scoring total of five runs.
-- Pirates lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Reds lost eleven of their last sixteen road games. Mets lost 11 of their last 16 home games.
-- Brewers lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Nationals lost 23 of their last 27 road games.
-- Arizona lost eight of its last thirteen home games. Marlins lost eight of their last eleven road games.
-- Padres lost nine of their last ten games.

-- Blue Jays lost eight of their last 11 road games. Orioles lost eight of their last twelve games.
-- Oakland lost six of its last eight road games.
-- Royals are 8-20 in their last 28 road games.
-- Indians lost 17 of their last 22 games.
-- Minnesota lost three of its last four games, allowing 24 runs.
-- Angels are just 5-5 in their last ten games.
-- Mariners lost three of their last four games.

Totals
-- Under is 8-4 in Cubs' last twelve games.
-- Eight of Phillies' last ten home games stayed under the total.
-- Three of last four Cueto starts went over the total.
-- Over is 7-1-1 in Dodgers' last nine road games.
-- Under is 9-3-2 in last fourteen games at Minute Maid Park.
-- Ten of last thirteen Atlanta road games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 12-5-1 in Arizona's last eighteen home games.
-- Six of San Diego's last nine games went over the total.

-- Under is 15-7 in Detroit's last 22 home games.
-- Four of last five Bergesen starts went over the total.
-- Under is 16-6-1 in last twenty-three games at Fenway Park.
-- Last six Oakland road games stayed under the total.
-- Last three Perkins starts stayed under the total.
-- Five of last six Angel home games went over the total.
-- Under is 11-4 in Seattle's last fifteen home games.

 

[cisco]

Today?s best MLB bets

Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets (-141, 7.5)

The math for this one should be simple: Johnny Cueto + Johan Santana + Citi Field equals an under.

Plus, add in the fact neither team could do much damage against a pitching machine right now they way they are hitting the ball. New York has scored 10 runs its past six games, including getting shutout twice. The Mets also are 19-21-2 against the total this season at home.

The Reds, who benched leading home run hitter Jay Bruce on Thursday and Friday, also have scuffled at the dish. Cincinnati has crossed home plate just 19 times the past six games and is 16-27-1 against the total on the road this year.

This game figures to be a pitchers duel where runs will be almost impossible to come by. In Santana?s past 10 home starts, the under is 7-3.

Pick: Under


Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers (+102, 9.5)

Things couldn?t get much worse for the Milwaukee Brewers. Players calling for trades, a pitching rotation decimated by injuries and, oh yeah, the team has lost six of 10 to fall 2.5 games off the pace in the NL Central.

And then the Dodgers come to town. Los Angeles has won 15 of its past 19 games on Saturday and Milwaukee just wants to put together a complete game at the plate and on the mound.

The Brewers have the 24th ranked team ERA (4.48) and is as mediocre as it gets on offense, hitting just .254 as team. Meantime, the Dodgers have scored the sixth-most runs in the league (432) and have the second-best ERA (3.52).

It will take a Herculean effort for the Brewers to win, but a victory for the Dodgers should be just another day at the park.

Pick: Dodgers -110

 

[cisco]

Streaking and Slumping Pitchers

Streaking

Brad Bergesen (Baltimore Orioles)

The Orioles' 23 year old wasn?t regarded as one of the team?s top pitching prospects at the beginning of the season. But as manager Dave Trembley prepares to make good on his word to shake up the rotation after the All-Star break, Bergesen appears more than safe.

Bergesen (5-3, 3.59 ERA) has allowed more than two earned runs only twice in his past eight starts and no more than four in any outing since May 24. In his last start, Bergesen went six innings, striking out four and yielding just three earned runs opposite Seattle?s Jarrod Washburn, who finished with a complete-game one-hitter.

In his two starts before that he was even better, allowing a combined two earned runs over 14 innings.

"He just looks like he knows what he's doing,? Trembley told the Associated Press. ?He looks very comfortable on the mound. He works fast and he can locate."

Glen Perkins (Minnesota Twins)

The 26-year-old hurler appears to finally be putting it all together for the Twins as the race in the AL Central Division heats up.

Perkins (4-4, 4.38 ERA) has been nearly impossible to score runs off of in his past two outings. In wins over the Royals and Cardinals he combined to allow only two earned runs over 14 innings while walking none.

"It was just keeping the ball down and letting it move," Perkins told the Associated Press. "You get through the game quick and there's not a lot of pitches that you waste."


Slumping

Kevin Millwood (Texas Rangers)

The ace of the Texas Rangers staff has looked more like a joker his past two outings.

Millwood (8-6, 3.34 ERA) was tagged in consecutive outings against the Angles last week, allowing 13 earned runs in just 11 1-3 innings.

The outings were by far the worst of the season for Millwood, who followed up each of his previous poor performances with a solid outing until this point.

"I didn't hit my spots,? Millwood told the Associated Press. "When I tried to go away, it would drift over the middle of the plate. And when I didn't hit my spots, they hit those mistakes."

 

[cisco]

Weekend MLB cheat sheet
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(Published 7-9-09)

The final weekend on the basepaths before this year?s All-Star break finds teams in both circuits fighting hard for position. That?s because teams in first place at the break go on to make the playoffs 70 percent of the time.

FYI: teams that find themselves 1 to 5 games back at the break are just a 47 percent proposition to land a spot in the postseason while teams of more than five games out hold a less than 10 percent chance of gaining an extra paycheck.

With that, let?s take a look at four of the bigger series on tap this weekend. Remember, all results are within the series and all pitcher records are ?team starts? (the team?s record in games in which the pitcher starts) versus this opponent.

Enjoy the weekend.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

Most Recent Series Result: Cardinals 5-1 last 6 games (6-3 this season)

Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Cubs 4-1 last 5 games (2-1 this season) home

Key Day/Month Stat: Cubs 17-4 home Sundays; Cardinals 2-6 Sundays

Best Arm in the Series: Cubs? Dempster 4-0 2.93 ERA home career

Worst Arm in the Series: Cardinals? Carpenter 1-4 4.28 ERA away career

Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

Most Recent Series Result: Dodgers 6-2 last 8 games

Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Dodgers 12-7 last 19 games away

Key Day/Month Stat: Dodgers 5-0 away Sundays; Brewers 0-5 Sundays

Best Arm in the Series: Dodgers? Billingsley 2-0 2.57 ERA career starts

Worst Arm in the Series: Dodgers? Milton 1-4 5.45 ERA last 5 starts

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins

Most Recent Series Result: White Sox 4-1 last 5 games (4-2 this season)

Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Twins 9-1 last 10 games home

Key Day/Month Stat: Twins 16-5 Fridays; White Sox 6-14 Fridays

Best Arm in the Series: Twins? Baker 2-0 2.77 ERA last 2 home starts

Worst Arm in the Series: White Sox? Danks 0-2 9.68 ERA last 2 away starts

New York Yankees at Los Angeles Angels

Most Recent Series Result: Angels 10-6 last 16 games (1-2 this season)

Most Recent Series Result at the Site: Angels 13-4 last 17 home

Key Day/Month Stat: Angels 16-2 home Sundays; Yankees 4-10 away Sundays

Best Arm in the Series: Angels? Lackey 4-1 4.35 ERA last 5 home starts

Worst Arm in the Series: Yankees? Pettite 1-3 7.97 ERA last 4 starts

 

[cisco]

Saturday's Fox Tip Sheet
By Chris David

Saturday?s pro baseball card features a solid pair of games to wager on, as the Cardinals and Cubs battle from Wrigley Field and the Yankees and Angels continue their series in Los Angeles. Both games will be televised regionally on Fox, with the first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT.

Let?s take a closer look.

Cardinals at Cubs

The Cardinals look to finish up the first-half of the season strong when it meets the Cubs this afternoon. St. Louis has taken seven of the first 10 meetings, including an 8-3 white-washing yesterday. The combined 11 runs easily eclipsed the closing total of 8, which improved the ?over? to 4-0 in the four games played at Chicago this year.

The Cubs? loss on Thursday to the Cards was their third straight at home. The offense has been held to five total runs during this stretch and hasn?t had the pop from last year. Chicago hopes Ted Lilly (8-6, 3.32 ERA) can stop the bleeding today when he takes the mound. Lilly has been lights out at home this year, going 5-1 in eight starts, surrendering just 12 earned runs over 55 innings. In his recent outing last Sunday, Lilly handcuffed the Brewers for nine hits and two runs over 6 2-3 innings in an 8-2 Cubs? victory. Lilly pitched well against the Cards on May 19, but still came up short as the team was blanked 3-0 on the road. Despite the loss, the lefty owns a 6-3 career mark against St. Louis in 12 starts. Last year, he went 3-0 in five starts with a 3.06 ERA against St. Louis.

St. Louis counters with Brad Thompson (2-5, 4.92 ERA), who hopes to break out of a three-game losing skid on Saturday. The right-hander has been roughed up for 24 hits and 13 runs over 16 innings during this span. And, the damage has come against the Mets, Giants and Reds, three teams that really don?t scare you on paper. This will be Johnson?s first start against Chicago.

The Cardinals have posted 32 runs in the last five games but are averaging just 3.5 runs per game against lefties this year. The ?over/under? won?t be announced for this matchup until the weather updates are provided. Lilly has been listed as a $1.50 home favorite.

Yankees at Angels

Even though the Yankees captured two of three from the Angels this year, this head-to-head battle has been all about Los Angeles. Mike Scioscia?s team has won 14 of the last 19 versus the Yanks in Anaheim and they are 29-17 (63%) against them in their previous 46 encounters overall.

Los Angeles? attack will need to find some pop from other hitters due to its latest injury bug. All-Star Torii Hunter (groin) and Vladimir Guerrero (knee) were both recently placed on the 15-day DL. While the Angels appear to be scrapping for support, the Yanks? offense is on fire. The club has scored four-plus runs in 15 straight games and just tagged the Twins for 20 runs during their recent three-game road sweep.

New York looks to stay hot behind lefty Andy Pettitte (8-4, 4.53 ERA) on Saturday. He hasn?t been consistent all year but that might be a good thing for the Yankees. Pettitte has followed up good spots with bad ones and vice versa. In his last outing, the veteran was tagged for five hits and six runs over six innings in a 7-6 loss to the Blue Jays last Monday. Based on those rends, most would expect him to bounce back this afternoon. Also, Pettitte has gone 4-1 on the road this year and his 12-8 (60%) career record over the Angels is positive. Total players should note that the ?under? has gone 7-3 in his last 10 starts. L.A. has managed to average five runs per game against southpaws this year, which has helped the team go 14-10.

The Angels? Jeff Weaver (9-3, 3.15 ERA) has gone 2-2 in last four starts after stringing together four consecutive victories. In his most recent victory, Weaver struck out nine and held the Rangers to three runs in the Angels? 9-4 win last Monday. The right-handed hurler owns a 3-1 career mark versus the Yanks but he earned a no-decision on May 1 when New York topped Los Angeles, 10-9. Weaver gave up four runs in the first but settled down to throw five scoreless innings afterwards and put himself in line for the win. Unfortunately the bullpen folded, giving up six in the last two innings.

The Angels have only played five day games at home this year, yet they?ve produced a 4-1 mark. New York hasn?t been too shabby in daytime affairs, going 18-12.