Betagame Trending Towards the Browns in Week 4?

[Sonny]

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Trending Towards the Browns in Week 4?



Heading to Baltimore in Week 4, the Browns run into a few trends that may highlight them being a good value that has been bet up to seven points already during the week.

To start, Baltimore has a few negative trends working against them entering this Sunday. The Ravens are just 3-11 against the spread over their past 14 games as favorites. They?ve opened up 1-1 this season as favorites against the number, but the win came against the Dolphins, so apply whatever grains of salt you need to there. As home favorites, they?ve been even worse, going just 1-6 ATS over that span.

In divisional games, Baltimore has run just as poorly. The Ravens are a league-worst 1-5 ATS the spread in the division since the start of last season with four consecutive failed covers. Under Lamar Jackson, they?ve failed to cover both times in division as favorites laying 6.5 points and 7 points, the latter of which was to the Browns a year ago.


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The Browns are also a team that has trended in the right direction on the road, going 6-3 ATS on the road since the start of last season, including covering in three in a row and four of their past five.


--R.H.

 

[Sonny]

The Ravens defense has been underwhelming this year, to say the least.

Excluding the Miami game, Baltimore has given up 9.4 yards per attempt to Kyler Murray and Patrick Mahomes.
Ravens ranked 20th in pass defense according to DVOA.

The pass rush has been non-existent for Baltimore as well. PFF grades the Ravens pass rush 26th in the NFL. They only could muster three total sacks in the last two games.

With a poor pass defense, sans Jimmy Smith, and a pass rush that hasn?t been consistent so far to start the season, the backdoor will be open if needed by Baker Mayfield.

The biggest fears for the Browns will be the coaching mismatch between John Harbaugh and Freddie Kitchens as well as the Browns? slow linebackers against Lamar Jackson.

Historically, backing in division underdogs has been profitable. In the last five years, in division underdogs of 6 or more points have covered 58% of the time.

 

[Sonny]

Cleveland Browns (FINAL)

Joel Bitonio, G, is expected to play after full participation in Friday?s practice. He was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday due to an abdominal injury.
Adarius Taylor, LB, is expected to play after full participation in Friday?s practice. He was limited in practice on Wednesday and Thursday because of an ankle injury.
Rashard Higgins, WR, is questionable. He did not practice on Thursday or Friday, but was limited in practice on Wednesday with a knee injury.
Denzel Ward, CB, is questionable. He did not practice all week due to a hamstring injury.
Greedy Williams, CB, is questionable. He did not practice all week due to a hamstring injury.
Morgan Burnett, DB, is questionable. He did not practice all week due to a quad injury.
Chris Hubbard, T, is questionable. He was limited in practice on Thursday and Friday with a foot injury. He did not practice on Wednesday.
David Njoku, TE, is out indefinitely. He is on the IR due to a concussion and broken wrist.
Kareem Hunt, RB, is out. He is serving an 8-game suspension.


Baltimore Ravens (FINAL)

Marlon Humphery, CB, is questionable. He was limited in practice all week due to a hip injury.
Mark Andrews, TE, is questionable. He was limited in Friday?s practice with a foot injury. He did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday.
Jimmy Smith, CB, is out. He did not practice this week due to a knee injury.
Tavon Young, CB, is out. He is on the IR due to a neck injury.