- Sep 29, 2007
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TRENDS AND ANGLES
- Thread starter harlytiger
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- Mar 19, 2006
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The RPI Yardstick
By Pat Forde
ESPN.com(Archive)
The Minutes knows what you're really looking for today. You're looking for any edge you can get in the office pool. You're looking for that sliver of insight that will allow you to taunt the person in the next cubicle, to blast boastful e-mails about your prognosticating prowess -- and, ultimately, to win the big bucks.
You'll get no guarantees here. But, The Minutes did correctly pick seven of last season's final eight and all of the Final Four, including the champion Florida Gators. So let's drop a few dimes of bracket science on the readership, as they relate to the RPI (all RPI numbers courtesy of kenpom.com):
? Your national champion probably will come from the RPI top 10, and almost certainly from the RPI top 15.
Seven of the last nine champs had a top 10 RPI heading into the tournament. All nine were in the top 15. But only one of them was ranked No. 1. The list:
[+] EnlargeStreeter Lecka/Getty Images
Want to pick your national champion now? The Minutes has some advice for you.
2007 -- Florida No. 6
2006 -- Florida No. 15
2005 -- North Carolina No. 6
2004 -- Connecticut No. 5
2003 -- Syracuse No. 9
2002 -- Maryland No. 2
2001 -- Duke No. 1
2000 -- Michigan State No. 13
1999 -- Connecticut No. 3
Most prominent team outside the top 15 in the current RPI: Connecticut. Most prominent teams outside the top 10: Wisconsin, Stanford, Louisville. Current No. 1: Tennessee.
? Your national champion will have tested itself against strong competition and will have passed the test.
The last nine champs all played at least nine games against RPI top 50 competition and all of them had a winning percentage of at least .625 against that top 50. The list:
2007 -- Florida 8-4
2006 -- Florida 6-3
2005 -- North Carolina 6-3
2004 -- Connecticut 10-6
2003 -- Syracuse 8-4
2002 -- Maryland 9-3
2001 -- Duke 11-2
2000 -- Michigan State 10-6
1999 -- Connecticut 10-2
Only eight teams fit that criteria (through Saturday games). They are:
North Carolina (19): 8-1
UCLA (20): 11-2
Texas (21): 11-3
Tennessee (22): 11-4
Kansas (23): 7-2
Xavier (24): 9-4
Stanford (25): 7-4
Duke (26): 7-4
Prominent exclusions to that list: Memphis (only seven games against top 50 competition); Georgetown (6-4 against top 50); Wisconsin (6-4 against top 50).
? Your upset winners will not come from outside the top 70 in the RPI.
It's been seven years since a team ranked lower than 70th won a first-round game. Last year that was Winthrop at No. 70 and even that was the first time someone outside the top 65 won a game. (By RPI standards, 2001 was an epic year for shockers, with four teams ranked 75th or lower winning first-rounders, lead by No. 132 Hampton.)
So if you were planning on picking Belmont (78th RPI), Austin Peay (85th), Portland State (90th), American (91st) or San Diego (94th), you might want to reconsider.
The dark horses that come with the Minutes stamp of approval: Davidson (27), Western Kentucky (28), Oral Roberts (29) and the old reliable George Mason (30). All of them rank between 35 and 61 in the RPI, and all but the Hilltoppers have coaches who have been dancing before. (Western Kentucky's coach, Darrin Horn, played on a WKU team that made the Sweet Sixteen in 1993 and was within a shot of the regional final.)
By Pat Forde
ESPN.com(Archive)
The Minutes knows what you're really looking for today. You're looking for any edge you can get in the office pool. You're looking for that sliver of insight that will allow you to taunt the person in the next cubicle, to blast boastful e-mails about your prognosticating prowess -- and, ultimately, to win the big bucks.
You'll get no guarantees here. But, The Minutes did correctly pick seven of last season's final eight and all of the Final Four, including the champion Florida Gators. So let's drop a few dimes of bracket science on the readership, as they relate to the RPI (all RPI numbers courtesy of kenpom.com):
? Your national champion probably will come from the RPI top 10, and almost certainly from the RPI top 15.
Seven of the last nine champs had a top 10 RPI heading into the tournament. All nine were in the top 15. But only one of them was ranked No. 1. The list:
[+] EnlargeStreeter Lecka/Getty Images
Want to pick your national champion now? The Minutes has some advice for you.
2007 -- Florida No. 6
2006 -- Florida No. 15
2005 -- North Carolina No. 6
2004 -- Connecticut No. 5
2003 -- Syracuse No. 9
2002 -- Maryland No. 2
2001 -- Duke No. 1
2000 -- Michigan State No. 13
1999 -- Connecticut No. 3
Most prominent team outside the top 15 in the current RPI: Connecticut. Most prominent teams outside the top 10: Wisconsin, Stanford, Louisville. Current No. 1: Tennessee.
? Your national champion will have tested itself against strong competition and will have passed the test.
The last nine champs all played at least nine games against RPI top 50 competition and all of them had a winning percentage of at least .625 against that top 50. The list:
2007 -- Florida 8-4
2006 -- Florida 6-3
2005 -- North Carolina 6-3
2004 -- Connecticut 10-6
2003 -- Syracuse 8-4
2002 -- Maryland 9-3
2001 -- Duke 11-2
2000 -- Michigan State 10-6
1999 -- Connecticut 10-2
Only eight teams fit that criteria (through Saturday games). They are:
North Carolina (19): 8-1
UCLA (20): 11-2
Texas (21): 11-3
Tennessee (22): 11-4
Kansas (23): 7-2
Xavier (24): 9-4
Stanford (25): 7-4
Duke (26): 7-4
Prominent exclusions to that list: Memphis (only seven games against top 50 competition); Georgetown (6-4 against top 50); Wisconsin (6-4 against top 50).
? Your upset winners will not come from outside the top 70 in the RPI.
It's been seven years since a team ranked lower than 70th won a first-round game. Last year that was Winthrop at No. 70 and even that was the first time someone outside the top 65 won a game. (By RPI standards, 2001 was an epic year for shockers, with four teams ranked 75th or lower winning first-rounders, lead by No. 132 Hampton.)
So if you were planning on picking Belmont (78th RPI), Austin Peay (85th), Portland State (90th), American (91st) or San Diego (94th), you might want to reconsider.
The dark horses that come with the Minutes stamp of approval: Davidson (27), Western Kentucky (28), Oral Roberts (29) and the old reliable George Mason (30). All of them rank between 35 and 61 in the RPI, and all but the Hilltoppers have coaches who have been dancing before. (Western Kentucky's coach, Darrin Horn, played on a WKU team that made the Sweet Sixteen in 1993 and was within a shot of the regional final.)
